Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:58 pm

I moved 1% into small cap and 1% into emrging mkts last week (on the way to 5-10% of each eventually).  Oops, a bit early, but that's why I didn't do it all at once.
Test of the signature line
barrett
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1982
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:54 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by barrett » Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:16 pm

Pointedstick wrote: Man, January's been brutal for stock-heavy portfolios so far. Anyone buying stocks yet?
Not yet for me. I let my stocks ride a bit high in 2015. Haven't checked in ages but my percentages are probably not too far from 4X25. It seems with the PP you kind of feel crappy about it for months and then there comes a "Thank God" moment every few months. Well, it's just a phrase. Not trying to figure out religion here.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:52 pm

I am not a buyer now
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:16 pm

I just this morning "rebalanced" by plowing a big contribution into bonds and gold.  Stocks were up to 32% so I thought I might as well.  Happily, a small slice of it went to stocks and since it's a mutual fund, it'll buy at close of business today.  Grin.

I am one happy camper today!  At least as long as I don't peek at my 50/50 Boglehead retirement account.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
dragoncar
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1111
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:23 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dragoncar » Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:24 pm

sophie wrote: I just this morning "rebalanced" by plowing a big contribution into bonds and gold.  Stocks were up to 32% so I thought I might as well.  Happily, a small slice of it went to stocks and since it's a mutual fund, it'll buy at close of business today.  Grin.

I am one happy camper today!  At least as long as I don't peek at my 50/50 Boglehead retirement account.
Wow, even Sophie doesn't follow the Sophie Contribution Method
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:31 pm

It was an unusually big contribution to a retirement account, I was close to crossing a rebalancing band, and I needed to rearrange some assets to put more cash into taxable accounts.  This was an easy way to accomplish all of the above.  So sue me.

Just couldn't help chortling a bit over how well it worked out!
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by MediumTex » Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:33 pm

sophie wrote: It was an unusually big contribution to a retirement account, I was close to crossing a rebalancing band, and I needed to rearrange some assets to put more cash into taxable accounts.  This was an easy way to accomplish all of the above.  So sue me.

Just couldn't help chortling a bit over how well it worked out!
Did it make you feel like this?

Image
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
User avatar
Greg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1126
Joined: Sun May 20, 2012 6:12 pm
Location: Maryland

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Greg » Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:00 pm

MediumTex wrote:
sophie wrote: It was an unusually big contribution to a retirement account, I was close to crossing a rebalancing band, and I needed to rearrange some assets to put more cash into taxable accounts.  This was an easy way to accomplish all of the above.  So sue me.

Just couldn't help chortling a bit over how well it worked out!
Did it make you feel like this?

Image
that's SOME powerful waterproof makeup there.
Background: Mechanical Engineering, Robotics, Control Systems, CAD Modeling, Machining, Wearable Exoskeletons, Applied Physiology, Drawing (Pencil/Charcoal), Drums, Guitar/Bass, Piano, Flute

"you are not disabled by your disabilities but rather, abled by your abilities." -Oscar Pistorius
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:09 am

Ha!!!

Apart from the makeup and swimming underwater with eyes open.  I never could get the hang of either one of those.

It was just one of those amazing PP experiences:  at the end of December I'd crossed a rebalance band, the big contribution registered at Fidelity the day before and I decided to use it to rebalance even though the band was un-crossed, which meant using the entire slug of cash to buy bonds & gold which was appropriately scary and required significant nose-holding.  Plus all the echoes of Mathjak, Ochotona, Budd etc ringing in my ears.  I expect others have been having the same experience (??).

And then the VERY NEXT DAY look what happened.

I have no idea if this is a temporary blip or if the doomsayers are right about a 2016 cataclysm, but it's so nice not to have to worry about it either way.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by MediumTex » Thu Jan 14, 2016 1:00 pm

sophie wrote: I have no idea if this is a temporary blip or if the doomsayers are right about a 2016 cataclysm, but it's so nice not to have to worry about it either way.
Even for the PP, it's not easy staying green.

[img width=500]http://www.brianlowephotography.com/dat ... t_real.jpg[/img]
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Mar 05, 2016 1:43 pm

Stocks are very, very overbought on a short term basis. There is lots of downward pressure. This pop was a short-covering rally. Oil, too.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14234
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Mar 05, 2016 4:46 pm

Pointedstick wrote: Man, January's been brutal for stock-heavy portfolios so far. Anyone buying stocks yet?
As soon as I'm done paying taxes (estimated payments) and sharing with the Mrs.
Actually, my main focus is to try to get her to buy some stocks instead of hoarding cash.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Mar 18, 2016 8:47 pm

Stocks are really, really overbought at present. We could be looking at a repeat of the Oct-Nov 2015 rally, which ended badly. I would shy away from buying stocks at this time. I think it may become more clear in a month or two if this is a lasting rally or if there is going to be another cliff dive.

Image
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Mar 18, 2016 9:23 pm

Ocho,

Fair to say, at least for the past 2 months, that anyone following the 10 month MA Ivy signals will have lost out on these gains, and likely buy in higher at the end of March?
Test of the signature line
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Mar 19, 2016 6:09 am

A whipsaw is a real possibility, unfortunately, and more likely when using 10 month MA as opposed to 12 month total return.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:18 pm

The blackout period for stock buybacks is beginning next week. Companies buying back shares of their own stock (to increase earnings per share) have been a major prop keeping the market up. What will happen over the next six weeks as this prop comes off?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... e-earnings
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:51 pm

I followed Sophie's lead and invested 1/3 in stocks, gold and treasuries yesterday morning.
Either someone is playing a cruel joke or these assets are really green today.
I had just reached the point of analysis paralysis and forced myself not to stay in cash.
We'll see how it turns out, but 40% cash is too much for even me.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:24 pm

buddtholomew wrote: I followed Sophie's lead and invested 1/3 in stocks, gold and treasuries yesterday morning.
Either someone is playing a cruel joke or these assets are really green today.
I had just reached the point of analysis paralysis and forced myself not to stay in cash.
We'll see how it turns out, but 40% cash is too much for even me.
I'm still roughly 60% in cash.  Its frustrating but I just don't see enough investment opportunities yet.  So this year, I've decided to freeze portfolio contributions and just DCA in from existing capital over 108 weeks since I expect global recession and/or political crisis throughout the rest of this year and next.  At least in those assets that are All Systems Go right now: gold and T-Bonds (stocks are looking to flip back to bullish at end of this month).  T-Bonds is an interesting conundrum because the yields are so low it doesn't justify more than a 5-year maturity exposure and the yields on CD beats it.  I don't like the idea of investing in long-duration T-Bonds as a stand-alone without justification that it is the best to be in, not second, third or fourth.  Just too risky.

I bet most didn't know it took only about 2.5 years during the Great Depression to get back to breakeven after 1929-1933.  The Nifty Fifty 1973-1974 bear that killed first responder's pensions (and Polaroid!) was the real killer.  It took 12 years just to get back to breakeven.  The PP would have saved your ass, literally.

And I bet most don't realize the PP is really just a 50%/50% portfolio, hence why the 4% SWR rule works.  mathjak could have learned something if he had stuck around.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
bedraggled
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 705
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:20 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by bedraggled » Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:46 pm

MG,

And how many know of the bull market of 1932-1937?

How's that vacation, by the way?  Two years of Business Week got read pretty quickly!

Cheers.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:02 pm

bedraggled wrote: MG,

And how many know of the bull market of 1932-1937?

How's that vacation, by the way?  Two years of Business Week got read pretty quickly!

Cheers.
Yeah, yeah, I promise I'm leaving now!
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
bedraggled
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 705
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:20 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by bedraggled » Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:04 pm

MG,

No acknowledgement of the 1932-1937 bull market?
barrett
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1982
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:54 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:22 pm

I'm not MG but here's a good inflation-adjusted stock chart for the last 100 years:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jon ... ical-chart

People talk (fairly) about gold going through long down periods. There are time periods on here where one would have to have a LONG time horizon for stocks in order to avoid selling.

And, yes, that '32-'37 rally was not bad.
Kbg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2815
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 4:18 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:20 am

TLT hauling the mail again this year. YTD +8.8%.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14234
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:16 am

Kbg wrote: TLT hauling the mail again this year. YTD +8.8%.
http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/bo ... /144/  8)
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
Kbg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2815
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 4:18 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Mar 30, 2016 10:35 am

The main reason I pointed this out is because the exact purpose of LTTs in the PP is for exactly the kind of conditions we are in now (no/lo/deflation) but we continually want to WIN (whip inflation now)!  I still find it amazing that people can't really stop or have a very difficult time not predicting which is the whole philosophy behind a PP.

I totally understand and would agree with tilting a PP to one's circumstances. A younger person definitely should up the stock allocation as an example or go with a leveraged version of the PP.

I'm really not an HB groupie as I have a lot of money in other trading strategies, but I think HB was very smart man. It is not often you see a strategy do exactly what it purports to do over a very long time frame. PP certainly does.
Post Reply