Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Jack Jones
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Jack Jones » Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:45 pm

Everything's coming up Millhouse today!
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:09 pm

Jack Jones wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:45 pm
Everything's coming up Millhouse today!
O0 O0
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:05 pm

Someone needs to duct-tape Trump's mouth shut... stocks dumping today after more tariffs
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tyler » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:08 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:05 pm
Someone needs to duct-tape Trump's mouth shut... stocks dumping today after more tariffs
I must have missed that news while watching my gold and bonds take off. 8)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:54 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:05 pm
Someone needs to duct-tape Trump's mouth shut...
3M stocks then will skyrocket. :-)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:03 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:54 pm
ochotona wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:05 pm
Someone needs to duct-tape Trump's mouth shut...
3M stocks then will skyrocket. :-)
Not supposed to start till Sept 1. He's got plenty of time to walk it back. Look, here, Trump is even co-opting PP discussion boards.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:16 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:54 pm
ochotona wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:05 pm
Someone needs to duct-tape Trump's mouth shut...
3M stocks then will skyrocket. :-)
Someone should sticky these comments. O0
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:29 pm

I still think Trump has people trading for him. Secret calls on disposable cell phones. "We're having cheeseburgers" means buy calls. "We're having French fries" means buy puts.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:31 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:29 pm
I still think Trump has people trading for him. Secret calls on disposable cell phones. "We're having cheeseburgers" means buy calls. "We're having French fries" means buy puts.
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:47 am

Oh my, the PP is working its magic today. I am up nearly 2%, and I just saw what stocks are doing....
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:42 am

Yeah this is a bad omen for stocks. The fall correction officially began when we lost support at 2880. We lost support at 2880 2 days ago, closed up at 2881 yesterday on very low volume, then rejected lower today. Very ominous signal, imo.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm

Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it. O0
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:13 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it. O0
It's still on low volume. I wouldn't think too much into it.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:37 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:13 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it. O0
It's still on low volume. I wouldn't think too much into it.
Well, i have no idea where stocks are going, but i’m comfortable not really buying or selling. Very little of both. Comfortable holding.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by jacksonM » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:00 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it. O0
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.

Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:23 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:00 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it. O0
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.

Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by jacksonM » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:47 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:23 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:00 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it. O0
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.

Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
I define it as having hit the re-balance bands. I'm not smart enough to actually know when something is cheap or not so I just follow the system.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:05 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:47 pm
pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:23 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:00 pm


Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.

Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
I define it as having hit the re-balance bands. I'm not smart enough to actually know when something is cheap or not so I just follow the system.
Yep.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:40 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:47 pm
pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:23 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:00 pm


Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.

Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
I define it as having hit the re-balance bands. I'm not smart enough to actually know when something is cheap or not so I just follow the system.
That makes more sense. The word "cheap" threw me for a loop there, haha.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:55 am

Well, not unexpected. Another well recovered dip in the market. At least gold is holding decently well.

Some amazing gyrations that don't matter much when holding the pp.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:23 am

Yeah, it looks like we got at least a bit more life. Today confirms a false break down of the key 2880 level. It makes no fundamental sense to me. Economic data weakening, earnings have been very poor this quarter, all kinds of macro headwinds, trade war, etc yet stocks are refusing to go down. Makes me wonder if there is some credence to Brent Johnson's theory that U.S. stocks will rally, not because things are good, but because things are bad. We will see, we do have that ominous Sept/Oct timeframe just around the corner. Will be interesting to see how it goes. Glad I'm in a GB at this point, as nothing makes much sense fundamentally right now. It's nice to be an observer this time around, with no money being bet one way or the other.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:49 pm

It is nuts.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:34 pm

Stocks dump yesterday... I made $4000
Stocks soar today... I made $1400

Yessssss! I think I stumbled by sheer luck into the perfect portfolio for the present day. It's really odd! How is it doing this?

It's purely a result of getting stopped-out of equities and being too chickenshlt to jump back in, instead I took on risky "credit" bonds.

Stocks 8.2%
Aggregate bonds 15.5% (only bond choice in retirement plan)
TLT 15.9%
Credit bonds 34.4% (LQD, EMB, HYG, PFFD)
Gold 12.7%
Cash 13.3%
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:00 pm

Stocks 8%? Aren’t you a little young for that?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:21 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:00 pm
Stocks 8%? Aren’t you a little young for that?
The credit bonds are quite volatile. They are my stock stand-ins.

Paul Novell's model went risk off twice in last 9 months, I have been extremely cautious about getting back in, and how I express my desire to put on risk.

I think of myself as a lemming who sprained his ankle 100 yards before the cliff face.
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