Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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drumminj
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by drumminj » Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:38 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:30 am
I wouldn't touch stocks with a 20 foot pole unless I was in the PP, so we are all profiting from this, but it just seems so much smoke and mirrors. We go from WW3 starting to All is Well in 48 hours. It's like this is all running on a 2 hour movie timescale.
Agreed, I've been struggling with this as well. The only way I can convince myself to buy stocks is to remind myself I believe in the system of 4 assets, and I need to hold all four. It's still not been easy, though.

Then again, I have the same struggle with LTT and gold these days O0
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:11 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:30 am
I wouldn't touch stocks with a 20 foot pole unless I was in the PP, so we are all profiting from this, but it just seems so much smoke and mirrors. We go from WW3 starting to All is Well in 48 hours. It's like this is all running on a 2 hour movie timescale.
I'm in the opposite camp. Stocks may turn out to be overvalued at any time, decimating shares. However, investing in stocks is betting on prosperity. People still to go to work, companies continue to create value and smoke & mirrors or not, stocks continue their upward trend, even with a ten-year hiccup between 2000 and 2010. If I had the stomach for it, I'd go 90% stocks.

EDIT: added a missing preposition.
Last edited by dualstow on Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:18 am

Up until a few years before retirement I was always 100% equities.......as a long term investor there was never any logic to trying to mitigate temporary short term dips and permanently reduce my long term returns .....

I was well rewarded for it despite wars , 2 back to back recessions and the lost decade for equities...today I run in maintenance mode in retirement..... I range from 25-50% equities depending on where we are in the cycle. I no longer want the volatility of high equity allocations
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:49 pm

I concur. Equities look pretty inflated right now. But then again so do bonds. People sometimes ask me where all the inflation is that I have occasionally warned of. And I just tell them to look at the stock market. If I were speculating I'd be over-weighting cash and gold.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:47 pm

Overvalued is hard to put a number on ...if earnings rise , or rates come down everything has a new view .

Everyone thought stocks were way over priced in 1982 after p/es doubled ...little did anyone know the greatest bull market in history was ready to take off
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:06 pm

We are ten years into a bull market that pretty much smokes all that has gone before. Could I be wrong? Yep. Am I making any bets here? Nope. But if I was... I'd say this market is due for a correction. It will be interesting to see where this goes from here and how much longer the good times last.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:09 pm

US Large caps excluded, we actually had a bear in just about every equity market Sep-Dec 2018 defined as 20% or greater DD.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:51 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:00 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:06 pm
It will be interesting to see where this goes from here and how much longer the good times last.
If anyone wants to take the other side, I would be willing to bet big $ that the good times last at least until after the election in Nov.
I'll take that bet. When we've gotten to the point that the market goes up on Iran accidentally shooting down an airliner, something is F'ed up. I feel some black swan is coming before Nov.

Not saying the shooting down would be a 1000 point drop, but seriously, up? And up big? Does anything cause more than a 4 hour drop in stock prices anymore?

Gotta love Trump with his 409k and isn't your account up 70/80/90% tweet.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:57 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:51 pm
I feel some black swan is coming before Nov.
Paradoxical statement. It’s not a black swan if you feel it’s coming.
Do you feel the market is overvalued, or do you think something truly strange is going to take us by surprise?

Many stocks are overvalued, but this does not feel like irrational exuberance.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:47 am

I am no seer, I just think that there is so much effort behind the scenes to make things look better than they are that something is going to break. What that is I don't know. What triggers it, I don't know.

It is just my BS opinion! Am I am perpetually negative on stocks since 2008 so I am still biased by that drop.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am

Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:38 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am
Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.
It seems like every couple of years there are big news headlines about some abcVirus or xyzDisease, the stories show lots of pictures of people in public places wearing face masks and make it sound like there's going to be a global outbreak, but then after a couple of weeks it just kind of fades into the background and we don't hear any more about it.

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I have a feeling this is another instance of the same.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:54 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:38 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am
Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.
It seems like every couple of years there are big news headlines about some abcVirus or xyzDisease, the stories show lots of pictures of people in public places wearing face masks and make it sound like there's going to be a global outbreak, but then after a couple of weeks it just kind of fades into the background and we don't hear any more about it.

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I have a feeling this is another instance of the same.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:58 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:38 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am
Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.
It seems like every couple of years there are big news headlines about some abcVirus or xyzDisease, the stories show lots of pictures of people in public places wearing face masks and make it sound like there's going to be a global outbreak, but then after a couple of weeks it just kind of fades into the background and we don't hear any more about it.

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I have a feeling this is another instance of the same.
Maybe this is the black swan part of things. The issue is that all such potential outbreaks fade into the background as you describe... until one doesn't. And we don't know ahead of time which is which.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:10 pm

Xan wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:58 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:38 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am
Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.
It seems like every couple of years there are big news headlines about some abcVirus or xyzDisease, the stories show lots of pictures of people in public places wearing face masks and make it sound like there's going to be a global outbreak, but then after a couple of weeks it just kind of fades into the background and we don't hear any more about it.

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I have a feeling this is another instance of the same.
Maybe this is the black swan part of things. The issue is that all such potential outbreaks fade into the background as you describe... until one doesn't. And we don't know ahead of time which is which.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:38 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:29 pm
dualstow wrote: Seems like just yesterday I was feeling bad about taking profits. I had not hit exactly 35% in stocks, and I also only did a half-assed rebalance, preferring to ease into it and finish at the point where the stock share would have hit 35%. That day never came. I really thought stocks would go wild after breaching 2000  (S&P). Needless to say, now I feel great about the premature rebalancing that I did do.
That's good to hear. I was waiting for my stock allocation to hit the 35% rebalance band, and it got pretty close--but then, just short of the mark, stocks started falling like a rock.

This is making me consider switching to 20/30 rebalance bands going forward.
From what I'm remembering you've subsequently written regarding this....you may have consider switching but you did not. Or, have you?

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:39 pm

Tyler wrote:
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:36 am
Tortoise wrote: That's good to hear. I was waiting for my stock allocation to hit the 35% rebalance band, and it got pretty close--but then, just short of the mark, stocks started falling like a rock.

This is making me consider switching to 20/30 rebalance bands going forward.
Funny -- I had the opposite reaction.  Probably because I've been preparing myself for early retirement by working out strategies to minimize taxes, I tend to view rebalancing these days not as a profit capturing activity but as a (potentially) sizable expense.  If the PP keeps growing within the 15/35 bands while needing a rebalance only very rarely, that would be a fine outcome.  Or maybe I'm just lazy and thankful the markets may save me the effort for a while longer.  ;)
And, I'm guessing that, for you, you have stayed with this assessment?

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:36 am

Tyler wrote:
Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:38 pm
MachineGhost wrote: Hindsight bias.

The Golden Butterfly portfolio is B.S..  Does anyone really think such a "free lunch" is that easy to get all packaged up for you by your friendly neighbor, Mr. Wall Street?  ::)

You're not gonna get more prosperity by data mining to the past. 
Forget Wall Street -- What about nicely packaged up by your friendly neighborhood charting guru?  ;)

The Golden Butterfly is 80% Permanent Portfolio, and the extra 20% small cap VP simply tilts it slightly to prosperity with one additional low-cost index fund.  If it's purely a result of data mining, then we all have bigger issues.  I fully believe in the PP, so I'm not so quick to dismiss similar iterations of the same idea. 

The thing I most like about both the PP and GB is that their performances are remarkably independent of start date.  Now that's not to say that the future will be exactly like the past, but that's also not the point.  When you're investing in something that has done consistently well in all sorts of economic conditions, the exact order of the future is a lot less important.  IMHO that's a perfectly reasonable application of back testing, but everyone is entitled to their own opinions and portfolio choices. 

FWIW, after lots of consideration I'm also going into the GB (with minor tweaks) with my own money.  I'll be happy to report back along with Pointedstick how it goes. 
I think this may have been the first MachineGhost / Tyler Golden Butterfly "discussion" I've come across...

VInny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:36 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Mar 30, 2016 10:35 am
The main reason I pointed this out is because the exact purpose of LTTs in the PP is for exactly the kind of conditions we are in now (no/lo/deflation) but we continually want to WIN (whip inflation now)!  I still find it amazing that people can't really stop or have a very difficult time not predicting which is the whole philosophy behind a PP.

I totally understand and would agree with tilting a PP to one's circumstances. A younger person definitely should up the stock allocation as an example or go with a leveraged version of the PP.

I'm really not an HB groupie as I have a lot of money in other trading strategies, but I think HB was very smart man. It is not often you see a strategy do exactly what it purports to do over a very long time frame. PP certainly does.
And, just before I'd read this gem by Kbg.

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:48 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:31 pm
Haha, I was thinking for my birthday in Feb.
Agree, I would have sold to cash to “lock-in” profits countless times between 2009 and today. PP has kept me in stocks too.
It’s certainly been more challenging to stay in Gold and Bonds.
Nevertheless, I am happy with the PP’s performance and combined with a stock heavy global PP the combination has been rewarding.
In my time in the archives I've read a ton of posts by Budd. Therefore It was almost shocking to read the above by him!

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:15 am

hardlawjockey wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:16 pm
When I see a headline like Mark Zuckerburg "losing" the greatest amount of money any human being has ever lost in a single day it only tells me how financially illiterate people are (or else knowingly posting click-bait with a hyperbolic headline).

I'm assuming, of course, that Mr. Zuckerburg didn't sell any of his stock in his own company to lock in the loss, in which case he still owns the same number of shares he did before. Any accountant will tell you there was no "loss".
I am an accountant. And, I know that Mathjak will agree with the following.

He may not have had a "realized" loss but he definitely had an "unrealized" loss.

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:19 am

hardlawjockey wrote:
Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:39 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:27 pm
Why isn't anyone whining that all 3 assets are in the same direction (UP) today? :D
Human nature is weird, isn't it?

Who tunes into the news expecting to hear something positive?
Seems to play out in all areas involving humans.

On the various New York Yankees discussion lists I've been on when things are NOT going well ALL kinds of discussion (really complaints / criticisms). When things ARE going well, there are oftentimes dead silence.

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:21 am

Kbg wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
I assume you are still saying the same?

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:30 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:23 pm
Not every day you see 1000 points, wow.

Still, my rebalance is now buy 98% stocks, a sliver of bonds, and actually selling gold. Interesting.

We'll see what that looks like when I really will rebalance in early Jan after contributing to my IRAs.
Would have been a great move then, correct!!?? I assume I'll be soon reading here what you actually did do.

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:38 am

Kbg wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:26 am
It took me several years of investing to differentiate clearly between descriptive and predictive. 99.9999999% of everything one reads about investing is the former and the only thing that will improve your bottom line is the latter. Nothing wrong with stockfotainment, but it’s useless at best and dangerous at worst if you can’t put your emotional reactions on mute.
Yet another gem by Kbg!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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