Stock scream room

[ochotona]

From my friend Lance Roberts:

"Last week, we further reduced equity risk further bringing exposures down to just 40% of our portfolios. On a rally to the 200-dma which fails, we will reduce risk more and add negative hedges to portfolios."

[boglerdude]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... n-6-25-mom

Why would you loan someone money to buy stocks?

[ochotona]

The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.

[Kbg]

The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.

Actually only #10 most volatile this year...I think I heard that Bloomberg (mute if wrong)

However, A+ on the visuals!!! LOL

[ochotona]

The Schwab talking heads - Randy Frederick, Liz Ann Sonders, Kathy Jones... are getting really bearish. If you read their tweets, you get a sense of this.

@lizannsonders
@randyafrederick
@kathyjones

[Tortoise]

If they had predicted the timing of the stock market downturn in advance, then I'd be impressed.

Just about anybody can look at a stock market graph and say, "Yup, sure looks like the graph has been sloping down for the past month or two," and then tell a story that rationalizes why it might continue to go down for a while.

[dualstow]

Yep. I love that people can make a living off of it.
Turns out you *can* profit from predictions, but only if you are the predictor. And you don't have to be right!

[Cortopassi]

My rebalance for Jan has turned from cash going into about 50% bonds and 50% gold and selling some stocks to

6% bonds, 17% gold and 75% stocks.

I'm not sure I like the turn of this....

My PP at a low for the year now.

[Xan]

My PP at a low for the year now.

They have medicine for that now. :-)

[dualstow]

My PP at a low for the year now.

They have medicine for that now. :-)

That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence.

[Cortopassi]

My PP at a low for the year now.

They have medicine for that now. :-)

That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence.

HAH!

[Smith1776]

It’s funniest when people are arguing about the strategy and keep saying “PP” in the middle of a bunch of serious statements.

[ochotona]

A lot of the stock market selling he's going to turn out to be tax-loss harvesting. people talk about a Santa Claus rally but the Santa Claus rally really doesn't statistically take place until after Christmas.

Postscript Dec 25 - Lance Roberts looking for 2620-2650 as a possible oversold rally target.

[whatchamacallit]

Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.

[dualstow]

Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.

+1. Time in the market not timing the market.

[Cortopassi]

Not every day you see 1000 points, wow.

Still, my rebalance is now buy 98% stocks, a sliver of bonds, and actually selling gold. Interesting.

We'll see what that looks like when I really will rebalance in early Jan after contributing to my IRAs.

[Kriegsspiel]

Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.

+1. Time in the market not timing the market.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html

[dualstow]

I took a look. While I agree with the author that holding stocks long term does not magically alleviate risk and turn them into bonds, it is the only way to fly if you are going to hold stocks at all. I mean I would rather shun equities altogether rather than try to time. How bout you?

Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.

+1. Time in the market not timing the market.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html

[Kriegsspiel]

My objective is to have enough assets I don't have to worry about it.

[ochotona]

Ned Davis Research, in their monthly outlook, has lowered the stock allocation for their portfolio for risk averse investors to 40%. Normally it's 55%. This is the most cautious they've been since the GFC of 2008.

"On December 20, we reduced our recommended stock allocation by 10% and shifted it to bonds in our balanced account strategy. We have reached the downside extreme of what we would ever recommend for stock allocation, which has ranged from 40% to an upside limit of 70% since first constraining the allocation in 2008."

[Kriegsspiel]

The Buffet Indicator is at 130. My total stock allocation right now is just under 50%.

[dualstow]

Dow is now out of correction territory.

[ochotona]

Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests “Yes”

GMO White Paper, Marn Tarlie, January 2019

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx16Ir ... sp=sharing

Key Points
■ A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
■ Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
■ Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.

[boglerdude]

Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers

[ochotona]

Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers

Malinvestment... Everything?

Buying back shares with covenant lite BBB corporate debt (wink) instead of property, plant, equipment, R&D?