Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Tyler
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tyler » Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:28 pm

Fair enough. 

FWIW, my personal tweak is to use small cap blend instead of small cap value.  I've done a lot of research, and eventually decided that just buying small cap blend is close enough without over-thinking value vs. growth cycles.  Half VTI and half VB splits money equally between large, mid, and small caps and would likely satisfy your equal weight preference. 

It also has other side benefits for my situation, but that's a topic for another thread. 
Last edited by Tyler on Wed Mar 30, 2016 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by curlew » Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:57 pm

MachineGhost wrote: You're not gonna get more prosperity by data mining to the past. 
How do you know that? (And I mean how do you KNOW that)?

I've also adopted the Golden Butterfly Portfolio with a slight tilt toward stocks and it seems to be doing well right now.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Mar 30, 2016 8:10 pm

MachineGhost wrote: You're not gonna get more prosperity by data mining to the past. 
Sweeping statements like that are half wise, and half Scheiße.

Of course if we data mined 1901-1950 we could not predict 1951-2000. But for better or worse, the DJIA has done "OK", even though the component companies of the index have changed in unpredictable and novel ways.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Wed Mar 30, 2016 8:52 pm

Well, technically, data mining is purely statistical without any fundamental or behaviorial context.  Since 99.99% of such models fail when applied for real, I feel safe standing by my statement.  I mean, is anyone really in disagreement that "Small Cap Value" from Vanguard is anything but after I posted some of the portfolio stats?

Anyway, speaking of the devil, here is how to determine if your "Smart Beta"* fund is a scam or not: https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor ... g-you-off/

* "Smart Beta" has come to mean any weighting or factor tilting scheme other than market-cap.

As far as prosperity, capitalism is predicated on arbitraging diminishing returns.  What was great in the past does not necessarily exist in the future.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Wed Mar 30, 2016 8:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:50 pm

I have SCHF on a watch list, and it really, really puked today. Short, intermediate and long term bear signals. It's an ex-US ETF. Wow. -5%
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:23 pm

ochotona wrote:I have SCHF on a watch list, and it really, really puked today. Short, intermediate and long term bear signals. It's an ex-US ETF. Wow. -5%
Yeah today was a tough day for pretty much anything equity related, unless you were short something. In which case you very likely made money. My guess is the pain in the stock market is likely to continue for a little bit until the Wall Street boys stop freaking out. All of which said today was just another day to be glad you are in the PP.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:11 am

Image
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:22 am

MachineGhost wrote:Image
Could grind along for three more years or more with further Central Bank propping?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Oct 28, 2016 2:33 pm

What the heck happened at 1 PM eastern time today?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Oct 28, 2016 4:34 pm

ochotona wrote:What the heck happened at 1 PM eastern time today?
Hitlery is back in the news - reopening email investigation.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Oct 28, 2016 6:15 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
ochotona wrote:What the heck happened at 1 PM eastern time today?
Hitlery is back in the news - reopening email investigation.
It moved the market that much? A buy order went through that I wasn't quite expecting, but then the price popped back up. It worked out well, but it was so strange.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:35 pm

I put in a stock buy order at -1% relative to Tuesday's close, and it hit ! Then it kept on going up all day long today !
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue May 23, 2017 10:10 am

Time for another trim. My S&P shares are just below doubling, 99.93%
(from the thread, "I think I'll rebalance today")

My indie stocks doubled overall yesterday for the first time in my lifetime. 2004 was when I first started really buying, and I mostly stopped around 2010, opting for index funds. I'm not a good picker. I just held on for the dividends. What a feeling. Ready for the value to get cut in half now...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:45 pm

FB -3.28%
NFLX -4.73%
AAPL -3.88%
GOOG -3.41%
MSFT -2.27
AMZN -3.16%
TSLA -3..43%
TWTR -3.92%
SNAP -4.08%

I wonder what will be going through tech investors' minds this weekend? Buy the f***ing dip? Or sell? Monday might be interesting.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:07 pm

Phhhhfffbbbtttt...nothing. My NVDA crashed better than any of those wusses today.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:26 pm

I'm going to convert to mutual funds, so there's no ticker to watch all day long.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:31 pm

ochotona wrote:I'm going to convert to mutual funds, so there's no ticker to watch all day long.
VITAX?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:16 am

I am a Schwabbie, so SWPPX or SWISX
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:05 pm

Kbg wrote:Phhhhfffbbbtttt...nothing. My NVDA crashed better than any of those wusses today.
Oh, how I wish I'd bought NVDA. Most of the bitcoin and ether miners are using it, apparently.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:24 pm

Yeah, it has been a good ride. Bumpy though.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:14 pm

The market is so resilient, isn't it? North Korea, no problem. Domestic strife, fine.
The market knows that everything is fine.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:31 am

dualstow wrote:The market is so resilient, isn't it? North Korea, no problem. Domestic strife, fine.
The market knows that everything is fine.
https://youtu.be/cCKONHUigVk
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Aug 27, 2017 7:14 pm

I wonder if Houston will impact the market on Monday. Talk about Black Swans.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tyler » Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:53 pm

ochotona wrote:I wonder if Houston will impact the market on Monday. Talk about Black Swans.
Apparently gold floats.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:07 pm

ochotona wrote:I wonder if Houston will impact the market on Monday. Talk about Black Swans.
Is it really a Black Swan though?
Tyler wrote:Apparently gold floats.
ha!
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