Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:45 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:26 pm
Haha, yeah that is also a valid strategy. I look forward to one day being comfortably deep in "won the game" territory where I can just stop caring, pick a static allocation, and let it autopilot.
It's a good goal. Nah, I've learned my lesson. Follow the strategy. Put up with whipsaws. They are unavoidable.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:33 am

IMF chief says pandemic will unleash worst recession since Great Depression :
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN21R1SM

Being bearish seems to be part of our (Bulgarian) mentality.. ;)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:47 am

Vil wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:33 am
IMF chief says pandemic will unleash worst recession since Great Depression :
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN21R1SM

Being bearish seems to be part of our (Bulgarian) mentality.. ;)
So you're actually Bear-garian, not Bull-garian.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:22 am

Markets does not appear quite worried about. Regular daily sinusoids.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:48 am

The breadth of this market rally does make me nervous. This is no longer just tech and health care rallying, we now have deep breadth coming into the rally. The only solace I find is that the Q's have been rejecting at the 50% Fib retracement level for 3 days now, and SPY is just trying to break above it today for the first time. Maybe that will be the turning point? I hate to say it, but the probabilities of the bullish outcome are starting to look higher than the bearish outcome. We still have to break and close above that 2850 level before I'll fully concede though. That is the point that I can no longer argue with the charts.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by doodle » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:29 pm

From my perspective the government will do whatever is necessary to ensure stocks rise on a yearly basis. If earnings look weak then they will just give people money to buy things. They will continue to drive interest rates to zero or below making stocks the only game in town. Why is it far fetched to think that the government (and the fed) have this kind of power? They can literally print money and purchase shares, or hand out the money to corporations allowing them to buy back stock. We are going to reelect Trump as president I'm sure. He has shown that he no problem running massive deficits....what will this year's deficit be....maybe 4 trillion dollars? Where does it all end....no idea. But stocks will rise in nominal terms even if they have to hand out 10 trillion dollars to make it happen.

I'm so glad that I believed in personal responsibility and cautious investing...(sarcasm). Should have gone 100 percent stocks knowing that the system is rigged.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by doodle » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:35 pm

Middle class America bending over again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/op-ed-g ... ent.html

Edit...middle class America continuing to vote to put the people bending them over in power.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by shekels » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:21 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:29 pm
From my perspective the government will do whatever is necessary to ensure stocks rise on a yearly basis. If earnings look weak then they will just give people money to buy things. They will continue to drive interest rates to zero or below making stocks the only game in town. Why is it far fetched to think that the government (and the fed) have this kind of power? They can literally print money and purchase shares, or hand out the money to corporations allowing them to buy back stock. We are going to reelect Trump as president I'm sure. He has shown that he no problem running massive deficits....what will this year's deficit be....maybe 4 trillion dollars? Where does it all end....no idea. But stocks will rise in nominal terms even if they have to hand out 10 trillion dollars to make it happen.

I'm so glad that I believed in personal responsibility and cautious investing...(sarcasm). Should have gone 100 percent stocks knowing that the system is rigged.
I agree is 6,000,000,000,000 Dollars in Bank Reserves a lot of Liquidity? ;)
That is where the FED is now.


Rumor has it that The Fed Reserve and the Treasury have Merged .
So moving the Fed balance sheet to Treasury or something else?
Also seems BOE doing the same thing.
If True
Things are getting very interesting. In the Great Ponzi Scheme.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by doodle » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:52 pm

The thing I don't understand is there never is any money when it comes to healthcare, education, infrastructure, social security, child care whatever.....but when the stock market or corporate earnings take it on the chin for a couple weeks suddenly we have trillions of dollars at our disposal. I hope I misunderstand something about how this system works...because if not, I feel so disgusted with everything that it makes it hard to want to participate anymore.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by jalanlong » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:56 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:29 pm
From my perspective the government will do whatever is necessary to ensure stocks rise on a yearly basis. If earnings look weak then they will just give people money to buy things. They will continue to drive interest rates to zero or below making stocks the only game in town. Why is it far fetched to think that the government (and the fed) have this kind of power? They can literally print money and purchase shares, or hand out the money to corporations allowing them to buy back stock. We are going to reelect Trump as president I'm sure. He has shown that he no problem running massive deficits....what will this year's deficit be....maybe 4 trillion dollars? Where does it all end....no idea. But stocks will rise in nominal terms even if they have to hand out 10 trillion dollars to make it happen.

I'm so glad that I believed in personal responsibility and cautious investing...(sarcasm). Should have gone 100 percent stocks knowing that the system is rigged.
According to this article, central banks buying stocks doesn’t really help.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/japans ... 1558433503
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:57 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:52 pm
The thing I don't understand is there never is any money when it comes to healthcare, education, infrastructure, social security, child care whatever.....but when the stock market or corporate earnings take it on the chin for a couple weeks suddenly we have trillions of dollars at our disposal. I hope I misunderstand something about how this system works...because if not, I feel so disgusted with everything that it makes it hard to want to participate anymore.
I think the difference is that for all you name, except, perhaps, infrastructure, those are all structural problems that would need annual additional injections of money while this spending is viewed as one-time crisis spending. In this case it is only our economy that is at stake.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:35 am

markets are based on beating earnings expectations .... if the bar is set so much lower then things only need to be less bad .... lots of lay offs , lots of firings add to that profit bucket ....

market logic is not main street logic. markets at times like this are not focused on increasing revenue ... profit that comes from expense cutting is just as acceptable .

for all we know markets are focusing on a year or two out with increasing sales and lower expenses still in effect ...as well as about the almost free money .

investors get hurt trying to equate main street with wall street ..they are a very different mentality
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:11 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:48 am
The breadth of this market rally does make me nervous... I hate to say it, but the probabilities of the bullish outcome are starting to look higher than the bearish outcome. ...
Why do you seem worried and hate to say it? Because....(fill in)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:36 am

vnatale wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:57 pm
I think the difference is that for all you name, except, perhaps, infrastructure, those are all structural problems that would need annual additional injections of money while this spending is viewed as one-time crisis spending. In this case it is only our economy that is at stake.

Vinny
The Fed failed to unwind QE. The GFC crisis intervention has just morphed into today's activity. It was never one-time. It has been Universal Basic Income for the 1% for 11 years.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:36 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:11 am
pmward wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:48 am
The breadth of this market rally does make me nervous... I hate to say it, but the probabilities of the bullish outcome are starting to look higher than the bearish outcome. ...
Why do you seem worried and hate to say it? Because....(fill in)
Because I was hoping to deploy my giant cash pile into stocks at a much lower level. I'm worried I missed the boat. The evidence still favors this being a bear market rally, and at least a retest of the March lows. But that technical evidence is starting to get weaker and weaker by the day. We are literally dancing on the borderline of what I would define as a "bear market rally" and a brand spanking new bull market trend. Now it's not uncommon to dance on that line... both 2001 and 2008 did the same thing and rejected... but it's no less stressful waiting to see if I'm right, or if I'm wrong and have to buy back in, haha. So there's 2 things to worry about. 1) I missed the boat and have to buy in much higher. 2) I buy back in and get whipsawed as my theory is eventually proven right. but months down the road.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:23 am

I am convinced you'll have another chance.

I know I will be proven to be wrong(!), but fundamentals will matter. I'm sure investment houses are guiding lower and companies will beat newly revised estimates, but this stuff is so far reaching it won't matter.

There isn't going to be a bursting of activity from this stay at home stuff. People aren't dying for a new car. Look at how sports just fell off the radar (not that I was ever into them). Who's going to set foot on a cruise ship anytime soon? Go to a stadium? Sit in a crowded restaurant? We have been frightened.

It's going to take time. And then there will probably be a blip up again in the fall to freak people out again.

I have become way more worried about what this is doing to people mentally, like my kids. Day after day. Eventually, at all levels, I imagine people and governments will have to say f*$! this and start moving toward theories like this (yeah, Denninger again)

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238895
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:40 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:23 am
I am convinced you'll have another chance.

I know I will be proven to be wrong(!), but fundamentals will matter. I'm sure investment houses are guiding lower and companies will beat newly revised estimates, but this stuff is so far reaching it won't matter.

There isn't going to be a bursting of activity from this stay at home stuff. People aren't dying for a new car. Look at how sports just fell off the radar (not that I was ever into them). Who's going to set foot on a cruise ship anytime soon? Go to a stadium? Sit in a crowded restaurant? We have been frightened.

It's going to take time. And then there will probably be a blip up again in the fall to freak people out again.

I have become way more worried about what this is doing to people mentally, like my kids. Day after day. Eventually, at all levels, I imagine people and governments will have to say f*$! this and start moving toward theories like this (yeah, Denninger again)

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238895
I have had some thoughts that maybe we do continue upwards now, and the real bear market begins later this summer once we finally start seeing the economic damage. Unfortunately, earnings will be useless this time around as most companies are suspending forward guidance. It won't be until Q3 until we have any idea of what the economic damage truly is. In the meantime, speculation can run unabated. But with the Fed and government literally willing to do anything to prop the economy up, especially in an election year, the real question is can they succeed?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:44 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:23 am
I am convinced you'll have another chance.

I know I will be proven to be wrong(!), but fundamentals will matter. I'm sure investment houses are guiding lower and companies will beat newly revised estimates, but this stuff is so far reaching it won't matter.

There isn't going to be a bursting of activity from this stay at home stuff. People aren't dying for a new car. Look at how sports just fell off the radar (not that I was ever into them). Who's going to set foot on a cruise ship anytime soon? Go to a stadium? Sit in a crowded restaurant? We have been frightened.

It's going to take time. And then there will probably be a blip up again in the fall to freak people out again.

I have become way more worried about what this is doing to people mentally, like my kids. Day after day. Eventually, at all levels, I imagine people and governments will have to say f*$! this and start moving toward theories like this (yeah, Denninger again)

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238895
Have I been making the wrong assumption of what I am seeing in the background of your picture?

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:49 am

vnatale wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:44 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:23 am
I am convinced you'll have another chance.

I know I will be proven to be wrong(!), but fundamentals will matter. I'm sure investment houses are guiding lower and companies will beat newly revised estimates, but this stuff is so far reaching it won't matter.

There isn't going to be a bursting of activity from this stay at home stuff. People aren't dying for a new car. Look at how sports just fell off the radar (not that I was ever into them). Who's going to set foot on a cruise ship anytime soon? Go to a stadium? Sit in a crowded restaurant? We have been frightened.

It's going to take time. And then there will probably be a blip up again in the fall to freak people out again.

I have become way more worried about what this is doing to people mentally, like my kids. Day after day. Eventually, at all levels, I imagine people and governments will have to say f*$! this and start moving toward theories like this (yeah, Denninger again)

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238895
Have I been making the wrong assumption of what I am seeing in the background of your picture?

Vinny
I go to one ND football game a year because my daughter is there and it is a good reason to see her. This past year, we brought my younger daughter and her friend, and I left at halftime to go walk around campus with them, leaving my wife alone at the game...!

pmward, this might be a good article for you to read. https://slopeofhope.com/2020/04/forget- ... ore-178854
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by doodle » Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:07 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:35 am
markets are based on beating earnings expectations .... if the bar is set so much lower then things only need to be less bad .... lots of lay offs , lots of firings add to that profit bucket ....

market logic is not main street logic. markets at times like this are not focused on increasing revenue ... profit that comes from expense cutting is just as acceptable .

for all we know markets are focusing on a year or two out with increasing sales and lower expenses still in effect ...as well as about the almost free money .

investors get hurt trying to equate main street with wall street ..they are a very different mentality
A market is a price finding mechanism, a place that people commune to trade. They are not really about that anymore given the degree of government intervention. They have become a means to enrich a certain segment of the population. If you can't tell by the tone of my posts of late I'm angry....borderline outraged about what I have witnessed in the last 10 years in this country.

All these supposed corporate elite hard nosed capitalist masters of the universe are all for small government and deregulation when the gettings good. The CEOs, execs, and members of the board overextend and blow their massive profits on champagne and caviar on their yacht parties while claiming that their workers don't deserve living wages yet when shit hits the fan and they can't pay back their bond holders after binging on cheap debt for nearly a decade they and their bond holders and stock holders all become bleating socialists with their hand out demanding they get bailed out. That is hypocrisy of the highest magnitude and boils my blood. That creates a world rife with moral hazard. It incentivizes recklessness and lack of foresight and responsibility. Everyone of these corporate bigwig 'socialist' hypocritical mfs should be voting for Bernie Sanders while they suck off the corrupt corporate social safety net that the government (the stupid bleating masses) provides. I'm over it and can't understand why there isn't more outrage at what is happening here.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by shekels » Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:58 am

doodle wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:07 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:35 am
markets are based on beating earnings expectations .... if the bar is set so much lower then things only need to be less bad .... lots of lay offs , lots of firings add to that profit bucket ....

market logic is not main street logic. markets at times like this are not focused on increasing revenue ... profit that comes from expense cutting is just as acceptable .

for all we know markets are focusing on a year or two out with increasing sales and lower expenses still in effect ...as well as about the almost free money .

investors get hurt trying to equate main street with wall street ..they are a very different mentality
A market is a price finding mechanism, a place that people commune to trade. They are not really about that anymore given the degree of government intervention. They have become a means to enrich a certain segment of the population. If you can't tell by the tone of my posts of late I'm angry....borderline outraged about what I have witnessed in the last 10 years in this country.

All these supposed corporate elite hard nosed capitalist masters of the universe are all for small government and deregulation when the gettings good. The CEOs, execs, and members of the board overextend and blow their massive profits on champagne and caviar on their yacht parties while claiming that their workers don't deserve living wages yet when shit hits the fan and they can't pay back their bond holders after binging on cheap debt for nearly a decade they and their bond holders and stock holders all become bleating socialists with their hand out demanding they get bailed out. That is hypocrisy of the highest magnitude and boils my blood. That creates a world rife with moral hazard. It incentivizes recklessness and lack of foresight and responsibility. Everyone of these corporate bigwig 'socialist' hypocritical mfs should be voting for Bernie Sanders while they suck off the corrupt corporate social safety net that the government (the stupid bleating masses) provides. I'm over it and can't understand why there isn't more outrage at what is happening here.
Tell us how you really feel.

The Non Government Central Bank (aka FED) seem worried about Deflation not Inflation now.
The House of Cards is still being Propped up so
healthcare, education, infrastructure, social security, child care whatever are not directly involved.
This is about the Monetary System that is broke.
Everyone/Countries wants a Bailout.
So sure the Fed Increase their Balance Sheet but what then? Monetize/Inflate it away/Foreclose?
The thing is .
The demand for Dollars is Huge, Like trying to fill a bottomless cup.
How is the Demand for Goods gonna be when no one has Money to Purchase new items?
to be continued.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tyler » Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:36 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:39 pm
The evidence that Trump is lying is that 10 million barrels per say would be 43% of Saudi and Russian daily production!

It's impossible on it's face! KSA and Russia would never volunteer for that. That's patently absurd.

Anyone who believes that's plausible has no operating brain cells. You've just proven it to the world.

That like saying Trump claiming he is going to leap from Earth to Moon, ain't going to happen.

You know it's Easter when impossible deals miraculously come true. ;)
Oil Price War Ends With Historic OPEC+ Deal to Cut Output

The world’s top oil producers pulled off a historic deal to cut global petroleum output by nearly a 10th, putting an end to the devastating price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
...
OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million.
...
The biggest winner appears to be Trump, who refused to actively cut American oil production and personally brokered the deal over phone calls with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... production
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Dieter » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:48 am

Tyler wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:36 pm
ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:39 pm
The evidence that Trump is lying is that 10 million barrels per say would be 43% of Saudi and Russian daily production!

It's impossible on it's face! KSA and Russia would never volunteer for that. That's patently absurd.

Anyone who believes that's plausible has no operating brain cells. You've just proven it to the world.

That like saying Trump claiming he is going to leap from Earth to Moon, ain't going to happen.

You know it's Easter when impossible deals miraculously come true. ;)
Oil Price War Ends With Historic OPEC+ Deal to Cut Output

The world’s top oil producers pulled off a historic deal to cut global petroleum output by nearly a 10th, putting an end to the devastating price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
...
OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million.
...
The biggest winner appears to be Trump, who refused to actively cut American oil production and personally brokered the deal over phone calls with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... production
"
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. called the cuts “too little and too late,” saying they’d only lead to an actual reduction of about 4.3 million barrels a day from first quarter levels. “Ultimately, this simply reflects that no voluntary cuts could be large enough to offset the 19 million barrels a day average April-May demand loss due to the coronavirus,” the bank’s analysts wrote in a report.
"

Cut 9.7M/day after 5.4M/day added this year, so a net 4.3m/day cut.

For 2 months, ramping back up after that.

Will be interesting to see how much it supports oil markets and for how long.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Dieter » Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:11 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:56 pm
Tyler wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:36 pm
ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:39 pm
The evidence that Trump is lying is that 10 million barrels per say would be 43% of Saudi and Russian daily production!

It's impossible on it's face! KSA and Russia would never volunteer for that. That's patently absurd.

Anyone who believes that's plausible has no operating brain cells. You've just proven it to the world.

That like saying Trump claiming he is going to leap from Earth to Moon, ain't going to happen.

You know it's Easter when impossible deals miraculously come true. ;)
Oil Price War Ends With Historic OPEC+ Deal to Cut Output

The world’s top oil producers pulled off a historic deal to cut global petroleum output by nearly a 10th, putting an end to the devastating price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
...
OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million.
...
The biggest winner appears to be Trump, who refused to actively cut American oil production and personally brokered the deal over phone calls with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... production
I wonder if @ochotona will apologize now to me for insulting me with the statement "Anyone who believes that's plausible has no operating brain cells. You've just proven it to the world."

Of course I'm not holding my breath.
The Trump tweet being referenced: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... cle_inline

"Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!"

Unless close to 100% of that OPEC+ 9.7M/day cut is from Russia and Saudi Arabia, not close.

The only source of details by country I have been able to find is in https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/10/op ... il-output/

Two days old, but:

"Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the world’s biggest oil producers, would make some of the biggest cuts—about 2.5 million barrels a day each, at least on paper—while other oil producers would make proportional cuts of their own."

Will be interesting to see the final numbers by country and how the markets respond.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:41 am

They have to cut, there's limited storage room.

Low energy prices benefit everyone. High oil benefits oil sellers.

Starting to wonder if Trump simply spins all news as great news.

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/sta ... 9046288385
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