Stock scream room

[eufo]

Friday was really really bad. I need more "really"s in there, but you get the point.

I have half an urge to sell everything and go straight cash for a bit... bah. I hate feelings like that, because I can't be the only one thinking that, right?

[ochotona]

Eufo if you hold the PP, don't sell stocks. Your allocation is already low. 25% is a hunker down allocation for most people.

[eufo]

Eufo if you hold the PP, don't sell stocks. Your allocation is already low. 25% is a hunker down allocation for most people.

I'm actually a modified GB allocation. 40% stocks. I still probably shouldn't sell...but I sure feel like selling.

[ochotona]

When do you need the money?

[eufo]

When do you need the money?

About 2/3rds is locked away in a Roth, so that's going to be there for awhile. I may not touch that at all. The rest is in a margin account that I've been using to save up for a house. I've been looking for 2 years and don't like the housing market at all right now, so who knows?

The right move here is to stay the course, I think. I'd love to sell everything but gold and cash in my margin account and then start nibbling back in as things get worse. The obvious problem with that is that it may not get worse and V back up. Beyond just missing out on the move back up, I'd also take a tax hit.

I'm not great at separating my emotion (gut feelings) from trading. I sold all my VTI back in 2014 (edit, not 2016) after a bearish drop. I then nibbled back in as the market came roaring back... missing out and paying the taxman.

Maybe this time is different... maybe it isn't. The graph sure looks different... it looks bitcoin toppy.

[dualstow]

If you believe stocks will be higher than they are today, and in your lifetime, before you really need the money, then that should help. I might sell a tiny amount, just for psychological purposes. Won’t change anything.

The hard part, as you already know, would be getting back in.

[Cortopassi]

Amazing the emotions brought up by "small" 1-2% downward moves in the stock market since people have gotten accustomed to it never going down...

You never hear about similar moves in bonds on the news. Or gold generally. But the sky is falling if it happens to stocks.

[dualstow]

I guess a lot of people worry “if this is it.” Is it the edge of the precipice. Will other people think similarly, panic-sell, and make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[sophie]

Well, if this keeps up, the cash allocation is what's going to kick me into rebalance land. No hesitation in doing so once that happens. I love a good sale! (Just say that to yourself 10 times before hitting the "buy" button.)

[Kriegsspiel]

[ochotona]

Eufo, if you want to buy a house then I would have cash on hand because we never know the price of housing. It may go down in the next few years. As to the Roth IRA, I wouldn't touch it.

What I'm saying is this, you wouldn't want the house prices to go down and then take a big loss in your house buying account at the same time. That would be disappointing.

[Cortopassi]

Where are the tweets? Where is Trump? Aren't the democrats, illegals, someone somewhere responsible for this HUGE stock market drop?

[Cortopassi]

This is what is supposed to happen, stocks crushed, bonds and gold are making up for it today!

[buddtholomew]

This is what is supposed to happen, stocks crushed, bonds and gold are making up for it today!

Not really.
IAU +.3
TLT + .94
SPY - 4.1%

[Mr Vacuum]

Great discounts to invest your tax cuts into

[eufo]

Since I didn't panic sell at the open, the market decided to collapse. Sorry, everyone... Lol!

[drumminj]

This is what is supposed to happen, stocks crushed, bonds and gold are making up for it today!

Not quite making up for it, but I sure feel good about selling ~10% of my stocks last week to rebalance, and finishing my rebalancing today by buying LTT during the early dip, and some gold yesterday before markets opened.

The short-term moves are inconsequential overall, but I like when timing works in my favor (it usually doesn't) Still down on the day with stocks tanking so much.

[Cortopassi]

Hard not to be down today (unless you are tech...!), but the PP did buffer reasonably well, and even more so now with gold rising in the evening.

[ochotona]

Charles Nenner was on Moe Ansari's podcast yesterday. One year ago he was predicting a stock slump starting in Q3 2017 which would take the Dow to 7000.

One year later, he has stopped being immediately bearish about the stock market, he thinks there may be another hidden cycle at work which could push it higher but "the jury is still out on that one" he says. He still thinks there will be a bear market which will bottom in 2020-2021. No mention of Dow 7000.

He thinks there could be a minor low in Gold soon, then from middle of 2018 it will head higher. Target is $2500.

Thinks interest rates will start decreasing again, suggests it would be a good time soon to lock in some longer-term bonds at a higher interest rate.

Charles is always entertaining.

[buddtholomew]

Charles Nenner was on Moe Ansari's podcast yesterday. One year ago he was predicting a stock slump starting in Q3 2017 which would take the Dow to 7000.

One year later, he has stopped being immediately bearish about the stock market, he thinks there may be another hidden cycle at work which could push it higher but "the jury is still out on that one" he says. He still thinks there will be a bear market which will bottom in 2020-2021. No mention of Dow 7000.

He thinks there could be a minor low in Gold soon, then from middle of 2018 it will head higher. Target is $2500.

Thinks interest rates will start decreasing again, suggests it would be a good time soon to lock in some longer-term bonds at a higher interest rate.

Charles is always entertaining.

I listened on 1220 last night as well.
Nenner’s Notes
You’re right, very entertaining.
I liked the piece about Au trending higher mid-2018.

[ochotona]

I am pretty sure I would not pay for Nenner's advice!

[buddtholomew]

The cycle is down and if it goes up it will go down further next time. Genius.

[ochotona]

I am thinking of taking a tax loss soon on Treasuries, converting my taxable account to 100% equity in case we are down for the year, I can tax loss harvest equities also. I would rebuy the same bonds in my IRA, after waiting 31 days.

[whatchamacallit]

It might be too early to gauge but stocks going down have the least emotional stress on me versus losing money on bonds and gold.

It might be a possibly irrational belief that they will always go up in the long run and don't feel that way at all about bonds and gold.

[Cortopassi]

It might be too early to gauge but stocks going down have the least emotional stress on me versus losing money on bonds and gold.

It might be a possibly irrational belief that they will always go up in the long run and don't feel that way at all about bonds and gold.

Same with me.