dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:07 am
I think Sophie did some backtesting that showed buying the lagging asset produced, well, a lagging total compared to the other methods.
I would be curious to see the results of that. I've always wondered which was the best way to accumulate, but I'm not aware of any tools I can use to automate this so it would require either hand coding a tool or hand testing, nether of which I've had the motivation to do, haha.
I think we ended up deciding that buying the lagging asset is a good strategy for taxable accounts because it avoids the tax costs of rebalancing. That did better than the cash accumulation method which is another way of accomplishing same.
The best performance came from distributing new contributions equally (or in accordance with target asset proportions), which is what you do in a 401K. We'd been talking about the hit you take from commissions especially for gold ETFs, so I was actually kind of surprised by the result. I didn't model the effects of taxes though.
Also, with the stock market gyrating up and down in response to Trump-isms, it's been pretty easy lately to time stock purchases to juice returns. I just got a 5% boost from a stock purchase thanks to the Mexico tariff affair. Normally I'd be not in favor of this sort of thing, but the sequence of events is so laughably predictable it's hard not to.
SPY total return is 18%, we're at the year-end targets many of the pundits set at the beginning of 2019, I think it just goes in a trading range or down, and I don't care to buy any more equities because bonds and gold are roaring.
I think we do have potential to go higher. However, it's clear we are looking at late cycle dynamics as it's the defensives that are driving the market higher right now, not the growth stocks. So it's not a question of whether it can go higher, it's for how much longer?
ochotona wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:16 am
I thought bonds were going to get killed today with the stock melt-up. Apparently not. Bonds ain't buying the "everything is awesome" narrative.
I never realized that a melt-up = a rise, but I just looked it up and it does. I guess it's just a weird back-formation from meltdown? I always erroneously took it as more melt than up, as in, "She's breaking up, Captain!"
now that is a link to some solid investing advice spam
Topics, in the context of protection, such as dividend stocks, stop-loss orders, options trading, and much more are discussed in detail.
Although options strategies are considered advanced topics in investing, the essential concepts of options for protection are simplified so that the beginner investor will readily grasp the protection strategy.
-Government 2020+ - a BANANA REPUBLIC - if you can keep it
-Belief is the death of intelligence. As soon as one believes a doctrine of any sort, or assumes certitude, one stops thinking about that aspect of existence
For those of you who hold an international index, say VEU (ex-us stock etf) are you happy with its performance? Is it in your pp or vp?
I haven’t really looked. Besides an Israel etf, I don’t really hold foreign stocks these days. Occasional currency plays, like the Swiss franc & Japanese yen, but nothing serious or long-lasting.
I still think Trump has people trading for him. Secret calls on disposable cell phones. "We're having cheeseburgers" means buy calls. "We're having French fries" means buy puts.
ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:29 pm
I still think Trump has people trading for him. Secret calls on disposable cell phones. "We're having cheeseburgers" means buy calls. "We're having French fries" means buy puts.
Yeah this is a bad omen for stocks. The fall correction officially began when we lost support at 2880. We lost support at 2880 2 days ago, closed up at 2881 yesterday on very low volume, then rejected lower today. Very ominous signal, imo.