Stock scream room

[pmward]

Another way you could also frame that is having a PP that is 15/15/15/15 and a VP that is 25/0/0/15. There is nothing wrong with that at all. My PP is 40% of my total portfolio. I am keeping that 40% a pure vanilla PP implementation.
...

It looks like it’s your PP that adds up to 60% and your VP that adds up to only 40%, not the other way around.
Is that a mistake, or just a coincidence and I’m reading it wrong?

Haha, I was splitting up Budd's portfolio into vanilla PP and VP. That is not my personal portfolio. In mine it is 40%, or basically 10/10/10/10.

[dualstow]

ah, I gotcha. Thanks.

[ochotona]

I guess mine is 40% PP also, and my VP is therefore virtually shorting stocks to completely offset virtual PP stocks (in other words I have TLT gold cash and very few stocks)

This is exactly what someone asked a few days ago - how do I short stocks in the VP? You do it by recognizing that the PP VP dotted line is a portfolio planning tool. If you think it's more than a dotted line, then you might be tempted to do weird sh** like being long and short in the same thing at the same time

[ochotona]

Bogleheads fun today

Deviating from "set it and forget it" investment approach
[Cashed out in panic, how to get back in?]
How to get back in ..
Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund" {isn't gold a venial sin for them? or a mortal sin?}
Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
I'm out [of the market]
Why shouldn’t I do this?

Rebellious teenagers in a fundamentalist family!

[dualstow]

Bogleheads fun today

...

Hah! Those are good.

To be fair, we have

Help me get over my fear of LTTs
I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

I was going to include some gold ones, but they appear to be ancient and only recently exhumed.

[pmward]

I guess mine is 40% PP also, and my VP is therefore virtually shorting stocks to completely offset virtual PP stocks (in other words I have TLT gold cash and very few stocks)

This is exactly what someone asked a few days ago - how do I short stocks in the VP? You do it by recognizing that the PP VP dotted line is a portfolio planning tool. If you think it's more than a dotted line, then you might be tempted to do weird sh** like being long and short in the same thing at the same time

Yeah, if we get another leg to the bear, I'm likely going to short in my VP... which may put me at that "net 0" or even lower when you look at it from one angle. But if I were to short I also wouldn't short the same think I was long. My long PP 10% at that point would likely be in QQQ since it has the strongest relative strength right now, and I would short something like small caps, financials, or even some weak individual stocks inside weak sectors... whatever seems to have the weakest relative strength and the most downward momentum at that time. So in a way it would be a long/short trade, something like long large cap tech, short financials. Regardless what direction the market went, as long as financials would underperform large cap tech, I would make a profit on the whole. I could even be wrong on the direction of the market, and the market could go up, but so long as financials lagged QQQ I would net a profit. Another angle to view it from.

[ochotona]

My spouse has $15k long in TIAA, I don't want to be in there trading her stuff. It's a good fund. I could buy RWM, which is inverse Russell 2000 which is full of unicorns with no earnings. That would be long / short, long quality names, short dogmeat names.

[Kriegsspiel]

Explanation of what’s going on with the stock market from Pragmatic Capitalism
https://www.pragcap.com/what-the-hell-i ... ket-doing/

Investment will collapse 30%+. Dividends and buybacks will slow 20%+. Household saving will spike 20%+. They’ll come back, but slowly. Government saving, on the other hand, has been a huge, huge boost. The government’s deficit should be ~$3.7T this year. People don’t seem to understand how big this number is. And how big of a boon this is to corporate America because, ultimately, it all flows to corporations because Americans don’t save.

This is such a great frame.

I remember years ago, someone was talking about how they didn't want to buy stocks, because they hate corporations and they don't want to help them. I told him that I thought a great way to stick it to a corporation was to stake a claim to some of its profits, and then not spending those profits on corporate products or services. I thought of how people frequently accuse corporations of draining off capital from factory towns, and how a hippy oligarch could move to a small town and pour government profits into it. I suspect this particular person gave it some thought, but that a typical American would hate hate hate that kind of agency.

[Libertarian666]

Explanation of what’s going on with the stock market from Pragmatic Capitalism
https://www.pragcap.com/what-the-hell-i ... ket-doing/

Investment will collapse 30%+. Dividends and buybacks will slow 20%+. Household saving will spike 20%+. They’ll come back, but slowly. Government saving, on the other hand, has been a huge, huge boost. The government’s deficit should be ~$3.7T this year. People don’t seem to understand how big this number is. And how big of a boon this is to corporate America because, ultimately, it all flows to corporations because Americans don’t save.

This is such a great frame.

I remember years ago, someone was talking about how they didn't want to buy stocks, because they hate corporations and they don't want to help them. I told him that I thought a great way to stick it to a corporation was to stake a claim to some of its profits, and then not spending those profits on corporate products or services. I thought of how people frequently accuse corporations of draining off capital from factory towns, and how a hippy oligarch could move to a small town and pour government profits into it. I suspect this particular person gave it some thought, but that a typical American would hate hate hate that kind of agency.

I would just have said "You know that buying a corporation's stock on the secondary market doesn't give the corporation any money, don't you?"

[dualstow]

The breadth of this market rally does make me nervous... I hate to say it, but the probabilities of the bullish outcome are starting to look higher than the bearish outcome. ...

Why do you seem worried and hate to say it? Because....(fill in)

Because I was hoping to deploy my giant cash pile into stocks at a much lower level. I'm worried I missed the boat. The evidence still favors this being a bear market rally, and at least a retest of the March lows. But that technical evidence is starting to get weaker and weaker by the day. We are literally dancing on the borderline of what I would define as a "bear market rally" and a brand spanking new bull market trend. Now it's not uncommon to dance on that line... both 2001 and 2008 did the same thing and rejected... but it's no less stressful waiting to see if I'm right, or if I'm wrong and have to buy back in, haha. So there's 2 things to worry about. 1) I missed the boat and have to buy in much higher. 2) I buy back in and get whipsawed as my theory is eventually proven right. but months down the road.

Do you feel you have missed the boat, pmward?

[pmward]

The breadth of this market rally does make me nervous... I hate to say it, but the probabilities of the bullish outcome are starting to look higher than the bearish outcome. ...

Why do you seem worried and hate to say it? Because....(fill in)

Because I was hoping to deploy my giant cash pile into stocks at a much lower level. I'm worried I missed the boat. The evidence still favors this being a bear market rally, and at least a retest of the March lows. But that technical evidence is starting to get weaker and weaker by the day. We are literally dancing on the borderline of what I would define as a "bear market rally" and a brand spanking new bull market trend. Now it's not uncommon to dance on that line... both 2001 and 2008 did the same thing and rejected... but it's no less stressful waiting to see if I'm right, or if I'm wrong and have to buy back in, haha. So there's 2 things to worry about. 1) I missed the boat and have to buy in much higher. 2) I buy back in and get whipsawed as my theory is eventually proven right. but months down the road.

Do you feel you have missed the boat, pmward?

Nope, I'm back in now. I kind of went back to the drawing board for how I construct my portfolio a bit. The fine details are in my thread down in the VP section, but the tldr is basically I settled on keeping a 40% PP, 30% VP quant trend-following, and 30% VP active trading allocations. So basically the quant trend-following strategy I chose got me back in a couple weeks ago. It would have been nice to buy lower, but oh well. And I may still get that opportunity, as the trend-following strategy model I chose uses volatility as it's trigger and is still floating very close to it's "risk off" trigger. So if we get another leg down it will get me out really quickly (hopefully still with a small gain from this risk on period) and back in at a lower level. In my active trading bucket I'm heavily into metals and miners, where I think more opportunity lies than in general stocks at the moment. So on the whole, while it would have been nice to get that big back the truck up equity purchase sub-2k, I'm happy with where I am currently at on the whole. Times like this are a great learning lesson. The experience definitely helped me to find my way into a strategy that I think is a better fit for me.

[Kriegsspiel]

I sold stocks at or just before the top, then I put about 1/3 back in at the very bottom ($100 for my newsletter). So now I have some cash waiting, but I'm not that stressed at the valuations that stocks raced back up to. I'm ok with taking the "loss" for the optionality of the cash. If I'm looking at the long term, I'm down with having some assets "languish in cash," or "pay for optionality," until stocks make sense again.

[pmward]

I sold stocks at or just before the top, then I put about 1/3 back in at the very bottom ($100 for my newsletter). So now I have some cash waiting, but I'm not that stressed at the valuations that stocks raced back up to. I'm ok with taking the "loss" for the optionality of the cash. If I'm looking at the long term, I'm down with having some assets "languish in cash," or "pay for optionality," until stocks make sense again.

Yep, it is nice to have that optionality. This was the position I was in Q4 2018. I got out early, and back in early, and started pulling some chips off the table and diversifying while everyone else was chasing back into the market. That was actually when I started my transition down the PP road, taking profits from that big run up following the Christmas Eve bottom and moving them into bonds and gold.

I tried for awhile to go straight up buy and hold, and I found out really quickly in April that even in a GB buy and hold on 100% of my portfolio is not for me. I settled on 40% PP as having a 40% conservative buy and rebalance allocation is a good anchor to allow me to chase alpha in my quant and active trading strategies (and all 3 give me added non-correlated strategy diversification benefits). The quant trend following strategy will help me do the same thing you did next time, get out early and back in at a decent enough entry to be ahead of the curve and not feel like I have to play catchup. And I'm pretty good at managing my risk in my active allocation, but definitely did not want to have more than 30% of my portfolio under active trading just because if I am trading with too large of a chunk of money, and I am in cash looking for trades I have a tendency to start getting impatient and trying to force trades to happen instead of waiting for the right trades to come to me. All 3 PP, trend, and active trading strategy allocations help create a total portfolio that I can 100% comply with and trust.

[mathjak107]

Same here , I have about one third in permanent portfolio,which is a fair amount and 7 figures ..then 2/3’s are in the fidelity insight income model ...then we hold a lot of cash ......I find it is a good balance ...

[Kriegsspiel]

I meant to say I sold some stocks. The way I wrote it might make it seem like I pulled off the Ocho, but I didn't

[pmward]

Same here , I have about one third in permanent portfolio,which is a fair amount and 7 figures ..then 2/3’s are in the fidelity insight income model ...then we hold a lot of cash ......I find it is a good balance ...

One thing I have thought to myself a lot lately when reading all the posts of people worrying about bonds and the PP, is that maybe if they had a VP as well it would help fix the issue? I think there was a reason why Harry encouraged people to have a VP for any cash beyond "the money they can't afford to lose". There are definitely psychological benefits to have some control and strategy diversification... but keeping the allocation that you can control limited and having a PP (or other highly diversified conservative portfolio) allocation as an anchor is also a really good thing. At the end of the day the most important thing is compliance. Investment strategies are like diets. You can have the best and most optimal strategy/diet in the world, but if you cannot comply with your strategy/diet, what good is it?

[dualstow]

I meant to say I sold some stocks. The way I wrote it might make it seem like I pulled off the Ocho, but I didn't

Oh, even I did that. (VP only)
No, I remember you used the term, sold "chunks of stocks" in a timely manner.

[Kriegsspiel]

Couldn't agree more.

I don't really fuck with my investments too much. I just kinda nudge them now and then.

If you can't help yourself and you know you're going to be balls deep trading options on margin or whatever the fuck, maybe you just don't keep any cookies in the house (to mix my analogies).

[Kriegsspiel]

I meant to say I sold some stocks. The way I wrote it might make it seem like I pulled off the Ocho, but I didn't

Oh, even I did that. (VP only)
No, I remember you used the term, sold "chunks of stocks" in a timely manner.

Mmmmmm, chunks.

Cookie dough.

Dammit.

[ochotona]

Buy The Dip... ever hilarious

https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4

[Vil]

Investment strategies are like diets.

Master dietologist, how do you see SPX recently ? Isn't the index forming a double top (of type Adam & Eve, according to Thomas Bulkowski ) after 21-22 April ?

PS. Sometimes, I see patterns around me, its highly obsessive have to admit hahaha.

[pmward]

Investment strategies are like diets.

Master dietologist, how do you see SPX recently ? Isn't the index forming a double top (of type Adam & Eve, according to Thomas Bulkowski ) after 21-22 April ?

PS. Sometimes, I see patterns around me, its highly obsessive have to admit hahaha.

Double top's do not exist until they set a lower low. As long as we are above SPY 279.13 we have not set a lower low, and we cannot say it is a double top. The market can still go back above and set that higher high. Two down days does not make a trend. A pattern is also not complete until it breaks up or down. And even if the 279.13 fails, we have the 50 day SMA not too far below at 271.25. It is not uncommon early bull market behavior to go and retest the 50 day SMA prior to going to try to break above the 200 day SMA. Keep an open mind, always look at both sides of the tape. Be careful of looking at the charts with a mind that is biased to one side or the other. For the moment we still have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows in tact. Until that is broken with a lower low the daily trend is still bullish.

[pmward]

Investment strategies are like diets.

Master dietologist, how do you see SPX recently ? Isn't the index forming a double top (of type Adam & Eve, according to Thomas Bulkowski ) after 21-22 April ?

PS. Sometimes, I see patterns around me, its highly obsessive have to admit hahaha.

Double top's do not exist until they set a lower low. As long as we are above SPY 279.13 we have not set a lower low, and we cannot say it is a double top. The market can still go back above and set that higher high. Two down days does not make a trend. A pattern is also not complete until it breaks up or down. And even if the 279.13 fails, we have the 50 day SMA not too far below at 271.25. It is not uncommon early bull market behavior to go and retest the 50 day SMA prior to going to try to break above the 200 day SMA. Keep an open mind, always look at both sides of the tape. Be careful of looking at the charts with a mind that is biased to one side or the other. For the moment we still have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows in tact. Until that is broken with a lower low the daily trend is still bullish.

And the bulls stepped up below that $279.13 just like they should have. They tested it at around 3:15ET and then the bulls launched the price back up over $181 within minutes of the test. So while the SPY price was down today, the bears fumbled and failed to get the ball into the end zone. As long as we are above that $279.13 and the bulls are aggressively defending support like that, it is really hard to make a bearish case.

[buddtholomew]

Funny, I was glued to SPY during that time as well and noticed a couple attempts to breach and hold below that 279 number. Low was 278.96, Close 281.60.

Been watching GDX for a good entry again after 35.20 sale.

[pmward]

Funny, I was glued to SPY during that time as well and noticed a couple attempts to breach and hold below that 279 number. Low was 278.96, Close 281.60.

Been watching GDX for a good entry again after 35.20 sale.

Yep, important support levels like $279.13 rarely give way easily. The best chance the bears have to get and hold below there is to try to gap below it tomorrow morning. We will have to wait and see what happens. If they starts closing some candles below $279.13 then the bears are actually scoring some points and doing some real technical damage, something they have been completely unable to do since March 23.