ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:16 pm
Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.
Perfect indication to buy more stocks!!!!
Ochotona you seriously need to read Harry Browne's book, How the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong. He does a very thorough debunking of virtually all prediction strategies. By the time you're done with it, you'll just laugh at stuff like this.
Also, wasn’t Shiller far more positive a short while ago? Maybe a year ago, two at most.
He stressed that he wasn’t making a prediction, but he was quite optimistic.
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
Kbg wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...
There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
Kbg wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...
There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
BuddT,
That’s not how these predictions work. In 2023, we check and see what the average annualized return was over the period from when the prediction was made.
These decadal market return predictions are like climate, shorter durations are like weather. The climate can be warming or cooling, but you can still have cold and hot days which does not disprove the long-term trends of climate warming or cooling.
Kbg wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...
There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
BuddT,
That’s not how these predictions work. In 2023, we check and see what the average annualized return was over the period from when the prediction was made.
He wasn’t looking forward 10 years.
The point is they don’t work!
dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:05 pm
#markettiming
What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
Go RealInvestmentAdvice.com, subscribe to the weekly Newsletter, and use the Real 401(k) Manager (at the bottom of the weekly newsletter) to manage the VP. Lance Roberts will advise you to be 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of full strength. It's free.
Or, use my blog. Subscribe to my GEM blog, and use the signals for managing the VP. Not as nuanced as Lance Roberts, all-in or all-out.
dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:05 pm
#markettiming
What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
Go RealInvestmentAdvice.com, subscribe to the weekly Newsletter, and use the Real 401(k) Manager (at the bottom of the weekly newsletter) to manage the VP. Lance Roberts will advise you to be 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of full strength. It's free.
Or, use my blog. Subscribe to my GEM blog, and use the signals for managing the VP. Not as nuanced as Lance Roberts, all-in or all-out.
Interesting life you’ve carved out for yourself Ocho.
Just visited your blog.
