Stock scream room

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Dieter
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Dieter » Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:00 pm

shekels wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:07 pm
I am going to post this here as it is about OIL. Granted it is Not about Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUC6lsLr04I&app=desktop
Interesting. Will be interesting to see how things change after the end of the beginning and impact on industries, especially transportation and oil.

Specifically to the video, I am hoping my 12yo car lasts a while longer - maybe electric, but the longer I wait, generally the better the car will be. Self driving would sure be nice.

But if work mostly from home, would we even need a second car....
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:23 pm

The market’s on a tear today. It likes all the good news.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:27 pm

Yup, indeed that's good - the 'shorting' season will have more place for action ;D Future is bright for sure... Meanwhile PM Boris Johnson was moved to ER.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:32 pm

Vil wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:27 pm
Meanwhile PM Boris Johnson was moved to ER.

Damn.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:40 pm

Yep, S&P put in a higher high on the daily chart today. This is something to really excite the bulls in the short term. I just can't get over the feeling though that the market is still pricing in the best case scenario, which I just don't see as very likely. I think we need at least one more good leg down to keep the bulls honest. At the very least, without another down leg, we at least would need to consolidate sideways for some time, imo. I just don't see the next bull market starting for *at least* another month or two, especially since historically speaking it would be more like 8-9 more months as the average time before we bottom.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:48 pm

Have anyone seen any numbers regarding the median drop of overvalued (P/E > 50) stocks due to the coronavirus ? Has the number of those stocks decreased significantly ?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by doodle » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:18 pm

Vil wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:48 pm
Have anyone seen any numbers regarding the median drop of overvalued (P/E > 50) stocks due to the coronavirus ? Has the number of those stocks decreased significantly ?
I don't even know how one can apply traditional metrics to stocks anymore. The government and their puppet the fed are doing whatever they can to drive up stock prices. They will drive interest rates into negative territory, devalue cash, bail out companies, mail Americans money, and in my opinion if they start to lose control of the currency will institute laws limiting foreign currency purchases or precious metal ownership. It doesn't seem to really matter anymore what p/e ratios are.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:08 am

The market is nuts. It is not a forward indicator, unless by forward you mean two seconds into the future.

I don't know what to make of this.

Half of me says CV overblown, we will get back to normal sooner than expected.

Half says the opposite..

Either way, the economy has been destroyed for many months/years and two 1000+ points days of rallies seems wayyy too hopeful. I'd almost do a mathjak daytrading thing later today if it is still up and buy some SDOW.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:41 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:08 am
The market is nuts. It is not a forward indicator, unless by forward you mean two seconds into the future.

I don't know what to make of this.

Half of me says CV overblown, we will get back to normal sooner than expected.

Half says the opposite..

Either way, the economy has been destroyed for many months/years and two 1000+ points days of rallies seems wayyy too hopeful. I'd almost do a mathjak daytrading thing later today if it is still up and buy some SDOW.
Technically speaking, if you're going to short this is the level to do it at. ~2800 is kind of the line in the sand as I see it. There are so many resistance lines around there, from past hard resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, the 2009-Feb 2020 bull market trend line, and even the first leg down of this correction which bounced at 2850. If we break and hold above that 2800 range I could no longer say that the evidence is in favor of us being in a bear market. The short and long term signals would all be bullishly aligned. So, if there is going to be another leg down and we really are going to have a true bear market... it needs to happen real soon.

This is either the ultimate bull trap that is going to leave the bulls broken and bloody, or it's a new bull market. I still think fundamentally it's too soon to start a new bull market. I think we need at least a couple of more months of pain, and one more leg down before we can finally bottom and start a real (slower and lower volatility) new uptrend. But even I am starting to question my short term bearishness. But that's exactly what a bear market rally is supposed to do. It needs to keep the bears and the bulls honest... and the only way it can do that is to be good enough to make the bears question their bearishness, and to give the bulls full conviction that they are right. Bear markets however usually bottom on a whimper not on a bang. Like I mentioned last week, in 2008 the market bottomed with the VIX at 17. I have a hard time believing we bottomed with the VIX at 85. I'm watching very closely, the next week will be really telling, I'll either be selling more stock hoping to buy back around that 1900-2100 level I've been eyeing for weeks now, or I'm going to have to admit I'm wrong (or at least early, which is basically wrong with an asterisk), buy back in, and keep a tight stop loss in case of a whipsaw.

I *think* that the problem we are facing is that the money is following the trend in virus numbers right now, and has not begun to really look at the economic ramifications. Long term, I'm as bullish as they come. I still think the stock market will be mostly recovered by the election... but even I have to admit this seems way too soon and way too little pain for a bear market. Even 1987 floundered sideways for a couple months and retested the lows before it started moving back up again. A 6 week bear market just makes no sense.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:48 am

Ad, good to hear from you!!!

I figured that the "routine tests" excuse for hospitalizing Boris Johnson was just a euphemism. I was not at all surprised that he ended up in the ICU. It will be quite an event for a major head of state to become a COVID fatality, but that is a strong possibility at this point.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:53 am

pmward wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:41 am
Technically speaking
As I can see today we are again headed north (is there such a thing, or can I just say non-south ?).
Maybe all the bulls waked up this morning overwhelmed by the 'signals' of the triangle breakout : ) -
EndlessJoy.jpg
EndlessJoy.jpg (31.98 KiB) Viewed 6160 times
my broker has filled my 'inbox' with that joy - seems on 6th is the breakout that happened :o Personally, never understood drawing anything beside horizontal support/resistance lines ...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:25 am

Nomura was quoted in ZH today: "The steep rally in global equities looks to us like a “bear squeeze” rally, powered by exits from bearish positions that investors accumulated during the downturn". That makes more sense to me than investors are looking forward to the economy re-opening. That's just nonsense.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:30 am

Vil wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:53 am
pmward wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:41 am
Technically speaking
As I can see today we are again headed north (is there such a thing, or can I just say non-south ?).
Maybe all the bulls waked up this morning overwhelmed by the 'signals' of the triangle breakout : ) - EndlessJoy.jpg my broker has filled my 'inbox' with that joy - seems on 6th is the breakout that happened :o Personally, never understood drawing anything beside horizontal support/resistance lines ...
Trend lines can be just as strong and valid as horizontal resistance levels, though the trend line that broke yesterday was a short term trend line, which means it was a signal for short term trading. And yes, the breakout technically happened yesterday (and even on the horizontal axis we set a higher high on the daily chart yesterday), and today is technically confirmation if it holds its gains. Momentum and rate of change are also rising on both daily and hourly charts. TLT is also telegraphing a pullback right now where momentum and rate of change been coming down since March 23rd while price still was increasing. All in all, yeah evidence in favor of the stock bull case just keeps mounting by the day, while the evidence for the bear case keeps diminishing. If this is going to be a fake out rally, it really needs to break down fast.
Last edited by pmward on Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:37 am

ochotona wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:25 am
Nomura was quoted in ZH today: "The steep rally in global equities looks to us like a “bear squeeze” rally, powered by exits from bearish positions that investors accumulated during the downturn". That makes more sense to me than investors are looking forward to the economy re-opening. That's just nonsense.
Oh I'm sure that has a lot to do with it. The purpose of a "bull trap" rally isn't just to fake out the bulls, it's also to fake out the bears. But if we get a weekly close over that 2850 area where the first leg bounced, we have to really start considering the fact that we may be wrong. Bear markets do many things, but one thing they do *NOT* ever do is have a "bear squeeze" 4th wave rally go higher than the bottom of the first leg down, and the first leg bounced at 2850. If we close above the 2850 we can say we are for sure not in a 4th wave rally in a downward impulse wave, we instead were in a 3 phase downward corrective trend, and are now in the first leg of a brand spanking new up trend. We are literally dancing on the line in the sand as we speak. Anytime you're playing a direction you also have to look at what level in the opposite direction proves you to be wrong, and 2850 is it. I'm literally sitting with my finger on the trigger to either buy or sell in the coming days depending on how this resolves.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:51 am

So this 2850 level, how much is based off technicals vs. fundamentals?

I don't understand how there can be a valid technical level at this point when fundamentals are completely unknowable. How many companies will report losses? For how long? Usually traders have an idea with guidance. That is currently impossible.

How long will it take any sizeable amount of consumers to get anywhere near back to normal?

I cannot see this bounce being sustainable, but of course that's why I don't trade!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:19 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:51 am
So this 2850 level, how much is based off technicals vs. fundamentals?

I don't understand how there can be a valid technical level at this point when fundamentals are completely unknowable. How many companies will report losses? For how long? Usually traders have an idea with guidance. That is currently impossible.

How long will it take any sizeable amount of consumers to get anywhere near back to normal?

I cannot see this bounce being sustainable, but of course that's why I don't trade!
Haha, fundamentals don't matter. At least not on anything less than a multi-year timeframe. In the 1 day - 1 year timeframe all that matters is sentiment. Sentiment is driven purely by emotion, not by logic or numbers. This is why you're confused, and why you will always be confused if you look to fundamentals to drive short term moves in the markets. 2850 is a technical level. There are multiple "resistance" levels around that area that should hold *if* we are truly in a bear market. Most importantly, in a bear market by very definition you have to have lower lows and lower highs. You cannot be in a bear market if the 4th wave up goes above the low of the 1st wave down. You've at that point had a high that broke above a previous low. This instead is the very definition of an uptrend. So it technically would be impossible to still be in a bear market if we close above 2850. The big funds will be watching those levels, and if they have conviction in the bear case they will sell. If they instead are bullish, they won't and the bull case will continue to unfold.
Last edited by pmward on Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:21 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:51 am
I cannot see this bounce being sustainable, but of course that's why I don't trade!
Completely agree. I think enough economic damage has already been done by the global shutdown that, even in a best-case scenario, it will take longer than we think to completely "re-boot" everything back to where it was.

And the economic shockwaves are initiating chain reactions that we're only starting to see and will play out over the coming months (possibly years) in ways we can't predict. Unintended consequences on steroids.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:28 pm

Another ZH headline - "Fade The Rip": BofA Warns "Bear Market Far From Over Unless We Escape A Recession"
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:44 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:28 pm
Another ZH headline - "Fade The Rip": BofA Warns "Bear Market Far From Over Unless We Escape A Recession"
This morning I believe it was Morgan Stanley that came out and said that the time to buy was now, that the bottom was in. What does this tell me? Morgan Stanley likely want to unload stocks, and BofA likely wants to buy stocks. These analysts are notorious for making media releases that help their own internal desires.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:58 pm

I just don't see much economic activity at all right now... most people I know are working from home if at all. Stocks going up like this just doesn't make sense to me.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:00 pm

barrett wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:58 pm
I just don't see much economic activity at all right now... most people I know are working from home if at all. Stocks going up like this just doesn't make sense to me.
Isn’t it just anticipation of a cure, sooner rather than later?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:09 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:00 pm
barrett wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:58 pm
I just don't see much economic activity at all right now... most people I know are working from home if at all. Stocks going up like this just doesn't make sense to me.
Isn’t it just anticipation of a cure, sooner rather than later?
Maybe. Is there a cure imminent? I have had the news turned off today.

Damn, dualstow, just saw in your sig line that Pussy Galore has left the building.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:59 pm

S&P down for the day! Hit resistance, rejected.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:06 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:59 pm
S&P down for the day! Hit resistance, rejected.
Darn. I stopped looking at 2:45 and went to do chores in the garden.
(That’s right, Barrett. Mountaineer also mentioned it outright, probably in the Kat Klub thread.
and GT in the youtube thread).
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:03 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:06 pm
Darn. I stopped looking
I am quite convinced that looking at the major indexes for any purpose except being informed on what non-retail investors think for the market, should be strictly prohibited ;D . And actually there is the PP not to care about what all those hedge funds managers and their high speed machinery think. For VP games there are the scanners/screeners enabling day and swing trading outside all those major index companies' stocks (that are very often replicas of the previously mentioned non-retail investors perceptions ) .. This is the way I feel things... not necessarily correct.. I do not know if all that increasingly traded indexing stuff and ETFs did not actually 'kill' those index stocks.. It's rare that I feel having good enough level of confidence on what will happen with the major indexes.... boom 5 billions and index goes up, boom 10 gazillions and index goes somewhere else..
Disclaimer: And not that today I am particularly pissed of indexes (as did good job on some EU 'holiday' stocks in the morning.. seems people were heavily dreaming for summer vacations while drinking their morning coffees..)
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