Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:41 am

I don't have enough income to worry about taxes from investments. 15% bracket.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tyler » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:52 am

Yep.  Once my income drops, it's a new ballgame.  No tax excuses -- it'll be 100% laziness on my part.  ;D

In all seriousness, though, I do like how the bands keep me from making unnecessary transactions.  I plan to stick to them for a while and worry about other things.
Last edited by Tyler on Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:33 pm

For those of you who don't peek at the noise but who read the forum: stocks were up 2.4% today, a 400+point climb for the Dow.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Thu Dec 18, 2014 7:10 pm

dualstow wrote: For those of you who don't peek at the noise but who read the forum: stocks were up 2.4% today, a 400+point climb for the Dow.
thanks, Janet!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Reub » Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:17 pm

Irrational exuberance?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:10 pm

thanks, Janet!
I'm sorry, I don't get the reference.
----
Irrational exuberance, no doubt! I do hope it carries on a while longer.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:55 pm

dualstow wrote:
thanks, Janet!
I'm sorry, I don't get the reference.
----
Irrational exuberance, no doubt! I do hope it carries on a while longer.
Fed Chairmand Janet Yellen or a cross between Phil Donahue and Danny DaVito.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:17 am

Oh, of course! Thank you, Budd. And I apologize for the brain freeze, Murphy.  :)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Sat Dec 20, 2014 7:36 am

We're definitely witnessing traditional topping behavior. 

Two V-shaped deflections in the span of about two months.

Recently, it took just two days to erase six days of losses in the S&P 500.

And it took only two days for the R2K to hit an almost 6-month high.

Cocktail party chatter is now about how they are the next Warren Buffett.

So, I say it feels like we're at the bottom of the 7th inning.  If "Game Over" doesn't happen by the next "Sell in May" signal, we're truly witnessing a miracle of epic proportions.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by jabba » Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:20 am

I noticed martin armstrong today had a post of a possible drop until may. I might put a short on.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/0 ... -5-months/
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Reub » Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:27 pm

Try not to play with your PP. Balance on schedule and try not to think. This is the best way.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:02 pm

I suppose today is a good day for Lowe, who is tired of the steadily climbing stock market. Dow down 316 pts. S&P down 1.64% whoops, numbers are still coming in. Both down more than that.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:33 pm

Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

I am going to have to think about why that is! 

Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...

Maybe not...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:22 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by stuper1 » Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:44 pm

ochotona wrote:
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.
Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:20 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

I am going to have to think about why that is! 

Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...

Maybe not...
I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines. We are in good company when stocks decline, but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
I am going to have to think about why that is! 
Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...
..
yes please.  :)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:50 pm

buddtholomew wrote:...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:57 pm

stuper1 wrote: Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.
Looking at one 10-year period is almost getting to be cherry-picking. Did you look at gold and stocks from an even longer period, 1980-2001? Pretty much the reverse case from 2000-2010.

Look at the performance of stocks and gold from 1915-2015. Stocks really grows over the long term with economies. Gold reacts to crises of certain kinds.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:02 pm

buddtholomew wrote: I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines.
The problem with gold is that is can get unreasonably expensive at times, and the overpricedness lasts for years at a time. If you buy high and sell it low, you're not helping yourself. That's just the basic facts.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:36 am

Xan wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?
I was merely offering an explanation for the emotions Cortopassi was struggling to reconcile.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Reub » Wed Mar 11, 2015 2:03 pm

jabba wrote: I noticed martin armstrong today had a post of a possible drop until may. I might put a short on.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/0 ... -5-months/
Is his prediction based on the value of pi like some of his other predictions are?
Last edited by Reub on Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:55 pm

Twitter was alive last week around the fact that the S&P 500 has gone a very long stretch without being able to put together back-to-back gains. As of Friday, that streak is now 28 trading days. A streak that long is so rare, it’s only happened twice before since World War II—in May 1970 and April 1994.

Charles Schwab & Co. commentary today
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Pointedstick » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:41 pm

ochotona wrote: Twitter was alive last week around the fact that the S&P 500 has gone a very long stretch without being able to put together back-to-back gains. As of Friday, that streak is now 28 trading days. A streak that long is so rare, it’s only happened twice before since World War II—in May 1970 and April 1994.

Charles Schwab & Co. commentary today
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:20 am

Wow is that a hillbilly toothpick, i.e. a raccoon's baculum (penile bone) I see on the right? I didn't know those were used for fortune telling!

(Edited for grammar only. Don't --> didn't)
Last edited by dualstow on Mon Apr 06, 2015 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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