Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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mathjak107
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:26 pm

good timing
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:31 pm

Only big caps recovered.  Everything else is struggling.  Don't let the mirage of cap-weighted confuse you!  The question at this point is whether investors are going to go risk-on with broader participation or is this the false calm before the storm as it always is at market tops?

[img width=800]http://i.imgur.com/ONJWer7.png[/img]
Last edited by MachineGhost on Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:16 pm

this year has been even more of a stock pickers market then the last 7 years have been .

managed funds in the mid cap and small cap areas have been all over the place .
you have  managed funds like fidelity small cap growth up over 6% , fidelity small cap stock up over 6% ,  fidelity midcap growth strategy's  up over 5% , fidelity nasdaq composite index up over 8%
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:31 pm

The Meb Faber Ivy-10 ETF portfolio is back in US Large Caps and US REIT as of today. And bonds.

US Small Cap, all non-US stocks, non-US REIT, commodities are all not in play.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:41 pm

mathjak107 wrote: this year has been even more of a stock pickers market than the last 7 years have been .
ugh, it's sad to see these novice words on the pp forum.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:45 pm

get used to it , you could have almost thrown a dart at any fidelity large cap fund the last 6 out of 7 years and beat the s&p 500 .

as we were saying in another thread , the more popular indexing becomes the more money the herd throws in to the same exact stock making them even more over valued .

the value is every where else lately .

reuters reported that fidelity's  large cap funds not counting the land slide this year have brought in an extra 35 billion to share holders in large cap funds compared to the s&p 500 performance .

i own both index and managed and the managed have been out performing for a long long time . funds like fidelity contra , growth company , capital appreciation and blue chip growth all have excellent long term records and continue to do so .

when you look at the handful of managed mega funds that hold the bulk of  of investors money ,indexing isn't the winner  most of the time .

it is only when you consider the thousands of tiny funds with little investor money , most of which we never even  heard of  because  they have so little of investor money that indexing looks like a no brainier .  it isn't the fact that many of the managers of these small funds are not good stock pickers either  that hurts them . it is the fact that expenses run higher because they have relatively little investor money .

once you actually follow investor money the odds are very different .

in fact today you have high fee index funds in 401k's so stock picking ability and fund expenses are really two separate issues .

put  danoff from contra fund in to one of these tiny funds and even with his suburb stock picking ability the fund likely would lag because of expenses being so high so don't confuse the two parameters .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:27 pm

ochotona wrote: The Meb Faber Ivy-10 ETF portfolio is back in US Large Caps and US REIT as of today. And bonds.

US Small Cap, all non-US stocks, non-US REIT, commodities are all not in play.
Ehhh, I wouldn't call 10-year T-Notes, "bonds".  And REIT isn't a separate category from equity, but I digress.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:01 pm

ochotona wrote: The Meb Faber Ivy-10 ETF portfolio is back in US Large Caps and US REIT as of today. And bonds.

US Small Cap, all non-US stocks, non-US REIT, commodities are all not in play.
phew , after we already went up 1700 points it is first  back in  today ?   
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:08 pm

mathjak107 wrote: phew , after we already went up 1700 points it is first  back in  today ? 
Oh yes. The plan is to trade no more often than once a month. Whipsaws are pretty much guaranteed every few years.  And, you will underperform during bull markets. But you will never be in for a true bear. The risk adjusted return is really good over a complete market cycle.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:08 pm

dualstow wrote: ugh, it's sad to see these novice words on the pp forum.
Are you being facetious?  Stock picking has outperformed the S&P 500 for the last 15 years...
All trades Buy&Hold (~SPY)
Initial capital 10000 10000
Ending capital 42750.44 19839.61
Net Profit 32750.44 9839.61
Net Profit % 327.50% 98.40%
Exposure % 63.40% 99.66%
Net Risk Adjusted Return % 516.57% 98.73%
Annual Return % 9.73% 4.48%
Risk Adjusted Return % 15.35% 4.49%
Total transaction costs 423.16 2

Max. trade drawdown -898.92 -6969.75
Max. trade % drawdown -52.73 -55.26
Max. system drawdown -5598.44 -6966.46
Max. system % drawdown -16.37% -55.08%
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:11 pm

mathjak107 wrote: phew , after we already went up 1700 points it is first  back in  today ? 
Thats the price paid for avoiding 1700+ points to the downside.  Worry less about the gains and more about the losses.  The gains will take care of themselves.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:15 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
mathjak107 wrote: phew , after we already went up 1700 points it is first  back in  today ? 
Thats the price paid for avoiding 1700+ points to the downside.  Worry less about the gains and more about the losses.  The gains will take care of themselves.
I just keep wondering if we're really in a QE / ZIRP pumped secular bear market that began in 2000, with massive sucker rallies...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:32 pm

ochotona wrote: I just keep wondering if we're really in a QE / ZIRP pumped secular bear market that began in 2000, with massive sucker rallies...
It does have that feeling.  Burned once, shame on me.  Burned twice, shame on you.  Burned thrice, kill 'em all.  Retail is very skeptical about the stock market after getting burned twice, but I don't think sentiment is where it would be at a true secular bottom.  Stocks have to be completely reviled, loathed, cause people to puke and not be acceptable for polite dinner table conversation first.  I wonder if that's even possible anymore in this day and age of defined contribution pensions?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:41 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
ochotona wrote: I just keep wondering if we're really in a QE / ZIRP pumped secular bear market that began in 2000, with massive sucker rallies...
It does have that feeling.  Burned once, shame on me.  Burned twice, shame on you.  Burned thrice, kill 'em all.  Retail is very skeptical about the stock market after getting burned twice, but I don't think sentiment is where it would be at a true secular bottom.  Stocks have to be completely reviled, loathed, cause people to puke and not be acceptable for polite dinner table conversation first.  I wonder if that's even possible anymore in this day and age of defined contribution pensions?
Russian equities. Brazilian equities. Now we're talking!!!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Pointedstick » Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:34 pm

Burned once, shame on me.  Burned twice, shame on you.  Burned thrice, kill 'em all.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:34 am

MachineGhost wrote:
mathjak107 wrote: phew , after we already went up 1700 points it is first  back in  today ? 
Thats the price paid for avoiding 1700+ points to the downside.  Worry less about the gains and more about the losses.  The gains will take care of themselves.
it doesn't look like the ivy-10 avoided it though . it still shows down . if you went to cash on 8/31  with that signal  vti was at 102.21 , if you bought back in yesterday you bought in at 107.93. a loss of about 5%
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:38 am

mathjak107 wrote: it doesn't look like the ivy-10 avoided it though . it still shows down . if you went to cash on 8/31  with that signal  vti was at 102.21 , if you bought back in yesterday you bought in at 107.93. a loss of about 5%
Trend following does not purport to never lose money. By it's very nature (trailing moving averages), it will be late to issue signals. The point is to stay out of major bear markets. You will have bad trades, though.

In geophysics, we have the luxury of apply moving average and other filters with zero time lag... because we recorded the data already, and we're just trying to clean it up! Can't do so with the financial markets, unfortunately... 
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:41 am

even going back to fabian days and his moving average system i never  saw it really pay off .  trying to avoid the drops historically has not worked so well in the end  ala the 1,000 point drop we saw that can happen in minutes . while some may be happy using the various trading indicators  i have not been impressed with these in or out schemes long term .

but , heck if you are happy with it that is all that matters .
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:18 am

mathjak107 wrote: but , heck if you are happy with it that is all that matters .
At least with the moving average systems, the pain comes to an end. With the PP, the pain never comes to an end.  ;)
Last edited by ochotona on Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:46 am

well everything eventually cycles around . it is just certain cycles like interest rates and commodity's tend to run long cycles .

there are just certain things  like commodity's and gold that tend to do better timing the markets then time in the markets .
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Jack Jones » Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:51 am

mathjak107 wrote:
ochotona wrote: The Meb Faber Ivy-10 ETF portfolio is back in US Large Caps and US REIT as of today. And bonds.

US Small Cap, all non-US stocks, non-US REIT, commodities are all not in play.
phew , after we already went up 1700 points it is first  back in  today ? 
Can we collectively decide to stop feeding the troll? I feel like it should be pretty clear by now that this guy fits the bill:
Wikipedia wrote: In Internet slang, a troll (/?tro?l/, /?tr?l/) is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[2] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion,[3] often for their own amusement.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:56 am

dualstow wrote:
mathjak107 wrote: this year has been even more of a stock pickers market than the last 7 years have been .
ugh, it's sad to see these novice words on the pp forum.
mathjak107 wrote:get used to it , you could have almost thrown a dart at any fidelity large cap fund the last 6 out of 7 years and beat the s&p 500 .
Get used to inane comments like "It's a stock picker's market" or recency bias & mining the past? I don't think so. I got that out of my system in the early aughts aka early 2000s.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Jack Jones » Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:16 pm

dualstow wrote: Get used to inane comments like "It's a stock picker's market" or recency bias & mining the past? I don't think so. I got that out of my system in the early aughts aka early 2000s.
(emphasis added)

That's how I know this guy is trolling. You can tell that he's relatively intelligent, so he clearly knows that pointing out that a strategy is having a bad day doesn't mean anything. However, he does it anyway because he's trying to push buttons.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:23 pm

mathjak107 wrote: it doesn't look like the ivy-10 avoided it though . it still shows down . if you went to cash on 8/31  with that signal  vti was at 102.21 , if you bought back in yesterday you bought in at 107.93. a loss of about 5%
You overly concerned about missing a measly 5%?  That is practically noise when we're talking about multi-year moves with gains or losses that easily trump 5%.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:25 pm

ochotona wrote: In geophysics, we have the luxury of apply moving average and other filters with zero time lag... because we recorded the data already, and we're just trying to clean it up! Can't do so with the financial markets, unfortunately...
Why not?  There are close to zero lag and may actually be zero lag indicators available.  The problem is they'll just hug the data closer and not be as useful for timing.  The lag is needed to act as a filter to get rid of the noise or whipsaw signals you don't want.

Moving averages are really just a cyclical analysis filter and eliminate all of the lower moment data.  But in practical terms, they are momentum indicators.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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