Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:21 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:00 pm
Stocks 8%? Aren’t you a little young for that?
The credit bonds are quite volatile. They are my stock stand-ins.

Paul Novell's model went risk off twice in last 9 months, I have been extremely cautious about getting back in, and how I express my desire to put on risk.

I think of myself as a lemming who sprained his ankle 100 yards before the cliff face.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:45 am

Damn things are volatile lately.

But a new high on the pp for me, up 15.47% for the year.

And laughing at these multi-hundred point ups and downs.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:33 am

Yeah it is really funny listening to all the people freak out in my works investment Slack room. Most of the people on that board are not just 100% stocks, but heavy into gambling on IPO's and flavor of the month story stocks. Lots of tears there today. And me, I'm just sitting back from the comfort of my GB laughing all the way to the bank, haha.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:10 pm

Again, for historical sake, since tomorrow can and will be completely different, I post the three main assets 1 year comparison. I would not have called this by a longshot. I don't even think a gold bug or a bond bull would have got this right.

Image
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:33 pm

Stock futures down more than 1% now. Looks like the market is not buying the spin from The Kudlow & The Munchkin.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 am

What a game of ping pong.

The day after the long holiday weekend is the one to watch. If Friday is down, Tuesday is at risk.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14227
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:51 am

ochotona wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 am
What a game of ping pong.

The day after the long holiday weekend is the one to watch. If Friday is down, Tuesday is at risk.
This is a good time to say I’m glad I haven’t done much of anything with regard to trading this summer. Small moves, like Carl Sagan wrote in ‘Contact’

It’s all about asset allocation (touches pinky ring).
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:56 pm

I've done some tinkering myself. Not anything particularly drastic, but enough to be noteworthy.

I've added a value tilt to the stock portion of my portfolio via the Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (VVL). However, my total stock weighting is still the canonical 25% in the aggregate.

In my VP I've bought some shares of Lululemon. 8)
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:26 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:56 pm
In my VP I've bought some shares of Lululemon. 8)
You want to grab some of that yoga pants booty, eh matey?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:37 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:26 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:56 pm
In my VP I've bought some shares of Lululemon. 8)
You want to grab some of that yoga pants booty, eh matey?
Of all the companies I've done Phil Fisher style scuttlebutt research on, this one was by far the most enjoyable! ^-^ ^-^ ^-^ ^-^
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:40 pm

How solid arrears there?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:03 pm

Solid enough for my PP, that's for sure.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14227
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:10 pm

O0 O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:06 pm

*Sigh*

Guys, ever the tinkerer I am: 100% of the stock portion of my PP is now officially value tilted via:

BMO MSCI Canada Value Index ETF - https://www.bmo.com/gam/ca/advisor/prod ... file%2FZVC

and

Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF - https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individua ... /?overview

I'm so lucky I'm almost entirely non-taxable... :o
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:12 pm

I just have such a hard time getting behind value these days. I just don't think it's possible for it to shine until the financial repression is finally over. Value is tilted too hard to financials, and financials struggle as long as interest rates are held artificially low or negative. I think the day will come, likely a few years from now, when the central banks finally fully paint themselves into a corner and everything blows up in their faces. When that day comes, this will be the time I'll be looking to heavily skew towards value. I think value coming back goes along with Ray Dalio's "Paradigm Shift" that he is predicting in the next decade. Until that point in time, I think it's too early; I just don't think it's possible for value to outperform with such a large allocation to financials in an artificially low/negative interest rate environment.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:18 pm

I am watching the relative momentum of growth and momentum ETFs. When value wakes up, we will know.

Value vs. Growth performance tracker
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:20 pm

And this image.

FSLSX is an old Fidelity value mutual fund, FDGRX is an old Fidelity growth mutual fund.

I'd say the worm is ready to turn, but who knows?
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:47 pm

Very interesting to see small caps going up to test resistance at top of the downtrend channel line the last couple of days, while large caps, bonds, and gold are all floundering. I think that if small caps break out into a new uptrend, that it is very bullish for new highs in stocks (small caps especially have a lot of potential upside in a new stock rally) and a bearish sign for the defensives that have up until now been leading. Will be interesting to see if we get a new uptrend in small caps, and how that resolves in the other assets. Small caps are what I'm watching very closely right now, as the main reason I've been so down on stocks in general lately is that I look to small caps as the canary in the coal mine for stocks, and they've been floundering in a downtrend. But a fresh break out in the small caps would completely change my short to medium term views. Also, value is looking to be perking up vs growth short term. Maybe we are getting some early signals that the "worm is turning" as Ocho likes to say? I'm still a bit resistant to this and require further validation and follow through to buy in, but my curiosity is piqued.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:51 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:47 pm
"worm is turning" as Ocho likes to say? I'm still a bit resistant to this and require further validation and follow through to buy in, but my curiosity is piqued.
This ex-SLB employee is watching the same dynamic play out with SLB, and RSP...
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:16 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:51 pm
pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:47 pm
"worm is turning" as Ocho likes to say? I'm still a bit resistant to this and require further validation and follow through to buy in, but my curiosity is piqued.
This ex-SLB employee is watching the same dynamic play out with SLB, and RSP...
IJS closed less than 1% from the channel line. We have to break above and hold above that for me to really consider this scenario. We could still reject once again at the trend line, and continue on as we have been. But momentum on the daily chart macd is currently +1.1 which is the highest it's been since that sharp rally that came off of the December lows, and it's still increasing. So we have high and increasing momentum going into this channel line test. We have also had very high volume on each of the big up days in the last week. This alone is making me start to wonder what the markets know that we don't? Seeing large capitol flows out of defensives and into small caps, and small cap value specifically, is interesting and is making me start to question the assumptions I've been operating under for the last year. I just can't see a scenario where small caps can break out, yet we hit a recession and/or sharp stock selloff in the short to medium term. Is the market starting to doubt the recession theory? Is the "smart money" starting to position themselves for a stock rally? Is the economy currently stronger than we think it is? Do we have some upside surprises waiting in the wings? Are growth names finally going to rotate out of favor with all the legal heat big name tech is taking right now? Can a value rotation lead the market for at least one more leg higher? I've got so many questions starting to stir. This last year and a half has been the trickiest and most unpredictable markets I've ever seen.
Last edited by pmward on Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:23 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:16 pm
I just can't see a scenario where small caps can break out, yet we hit a recession and/or sharp stock selloff in the short to medium term. Is the market starting to doubt the recession theory? Is the "smart money" starting to position themselves for a stock rally? Is the economy currently stronger than we think it is? Do we have some upside surprises waiting in the wings? Are growth names finally going to rotate out of favor with all the legal heat big name tech is taking right now? I've got so many questions starting to stir.
I wonder if it's just the usual "if it bleeds it leads" financial press overselling a dramatic recession story to sell ads. The FRED real-time (but lagged by a month) recession indicator says... no recession yet! Oil is kinda OK, unemployment hasn't turned up yet, maybe we do get a end of year rally. Wonder what the FED does this month!
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:01 pm

3 1/2 months left in the year. PP was up 17.5% a couple days ago. Up 15.3% today (yes I am looking daily)

Weird sense in my stomach that someone is going to pull something out of their a** and that 15.3% is going to be in the sub 5% range by Dec 31st. Gold back at $1200. Crap like that.

But I also don't see how we can't join the global race to zero/negative rates and how TLT and gold wouldn't be the beneficiaries.

(This always happens to me when I see my portfolio return go down a percent or two)
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:16 pm

I went out searching for if anyone else in the people I follow are seeing any of the things I'm beginning to notice this week. This video here looked at a bunch of really informative and in depth charts that also do look bullish for stocks in the near term, it's worth a watch if you like that kind of thing (Ocho this would mean you, haha): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VCuBikV9vg

I'm definitely not sure what is going to happen, but I'm starting to doubt the Q4 stock selloff narrative that I have felt so sure of for months now. If this happens, I think we may see a healthy retracement in gold and bonds, but not to bring the PP down to 5% or anything that extreme. Moreover, I would see that as a buying opportunity more than anything. I use the term "healthy retracement" very intentionally here. My long term view has still not budged any, it's just the short to medium term narrative that I'm starting to doubt. I'm starting to question if the timeline I was operating off of might have been a bit too early.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:15 pm

I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
drumminj
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:16 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by drumminj » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:36 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:16 pm
I'm starting to question if the timeline I was operating off of might have been a bit too early.
...and this is why we are in the pp - it's not about timing the market and shifting out of allocations. That talk belongs in the variable portfolio sub-forum!!
Post Reply