Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio
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sophie
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by sophie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:33 am
ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:16 pm
Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.
Perfect indication to buy more stocks!!!!
Ochotona you seriously need to read Harry Browne's book, How the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong. He does a very thorough debunking of virtually all prediction strategies. By the time you're done with it, you'll just laugh at stuff like this.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:00 am
What Sophie said.
Also, wasn’t Shiller far more positive a short while ago? Maybe a year ago, two at most.
He stressed that he wasn’t making a prediction, but he was quite optimistic.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:53 pm
ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:16 pm
Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.
I post bull and bear predictions for amusement. Some say SP 500 to 3500, others say 700. You have to laugh.
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Kbg
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by Kbg » Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
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buddtholomew
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by buddtholomew » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:08 pm
Kbg wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...
There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
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Kbg
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by Kbg » Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:31 am
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:08 pm
Kbg wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...
There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
BuddT,
That’s not how these predictions work. In 2023, we check and see what the average annualized return was over the period from when the prediction was made.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:40 am
These decadal market return predictions are like climate, shorter durations are like weather. The climate can be warming or cooling, but you can still have cold and hot days which does not disprove the long-term trends of climate warming or cooling.
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buddtholomew
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by buddtholomew » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:59 am
Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:31 am
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:08 pm
Kbg wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...
There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
BuddT,
That’s not how these predictions work. In 2023, we check and see what the average annualized return was over the period from when the prediction was made.
He wasn’t looking forward 10 years.
The point is they don’t work!
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:17 pm
Charles Schwab Client Cash Hits All Time Low As Retail Investors Flood The Market
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:03 pm
ochotona wrote: ↑Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:17 pm
Charles Schwab Client Cash Hits All Time Low As Retail Investors Flood The Market
I saw something similar but it was in the wsj and I didn’t want to annoy Pug.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:33 am
You’re the spokesperson for the silent majority.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:06 am
Amazing no screaming here. I guess everyone was expecting some declines eventually.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:00 am
ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:06 am
Amazing no screaming here. I guess everyone was expecting some declines eventually.
It’s all in the Gold section.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:02 pm
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:00 am
Here comes the snapback. Let's see if it goes until the close.
Lost and Regained
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matt2499
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by matt2499 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:43 pm
Jan Van wrote: ↑Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:13 am
At least TSLA and TWTR are up today, happy with that :-)
TSLA too crazy of a roller coaster to handle right now
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:05 pm
#markettiming
What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:43 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:05 pm
#markettiming
What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
Go RealInvestmentAdvice.com, subscribe to the weekly Newsletter, and use the Real 401(k) Manager (at the bottom of the weekly newsletter) to manage the VP. Lance Roberts will advise you to be 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of full strength. It's free.
Or, use my blog.
Subscribe to my GEM blog, and use the signals for managing the VP. Not as nuanced as Lance Roberts, all-in or all-out.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:37 pm
Is that a yes or a no, Ocho?
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buddtholomew
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by buddtholomew » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:40 am
ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:43 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:05 pm
#markettiming
What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
Go RealInvestmentAdvice.com, subscribe to the weekly Newsletter, and use the Real 401(k) Manager (at the bottom of the weekly newsletter) to manage the VP. Lance Roberts will advise you to be 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of full strength. It's free.
Or, use my blog.
Subscribe to my GEM blog, and use the signals for managing the VP. Not as nuanced as Lance Roberts, all-in or all-out.
Interesting life you’ve carved out for yourself Ocho.
Just visited your blog.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:33 am
I am super glad I ran into trend-following. I think it was Machine Ghost who tipped me off.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 pm
Now that's a rally. Might even last through the day.
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buddtholomew
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by buddtholomew » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:06 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 pm
Now that's a rally. Might even last through the day.
Insane!
NFLX up 15%+ after hours on EPS beat.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:07 pm
I'm glad to hear it. My family has done well with Netflix but I'm below breakeven myself, on that one.
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