Stock scream room
Moderator: Global Moderator
Re: Stock scream room
Oh got it! I missed that one too.
Notwithstanding conversation above about effect of business closures. I suppose that makes us "heartless" according to the Huffington Post, but it is a real concern.
Notwithstanding conversation above about effect of business closures. I suppose that makes us "heartless" according to the Huffington Post, but it is a real concern.
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
Re: Stock scream room
Probably. Sort of like when I announce that I'm selling some gold so it will go straight up.flyingpylon wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:40 pmI think he’s just saying that they’ll tank because he just put money in, not because he has a crystal ball and can see into the future.
Re: Stock scream room
Re: Stock scream room
I am studying some charts this weekend, trying to figure out levels that I would overbalance stocks. I happened to notice that S&P 600 ETF's are below the level they were at in the 2007 peak. SCV has effectively wiped out 13 years of price appreciation and dropped 48% from the peak. WOW did that escalate quickly!
- mathjak107
- Executive Member
- Posts: 4456
- Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
- Location: bayside queens ny
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
I was never comfortable holding the the s&p 600 ...I found the bad thing was that kind of volatility ain’t your friend when it is down .....I don’t care what historical charts show ....all that counts is the time frame things effect you
- mathjak107
- Executive Member
- Posts: 4456
- Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
- Location: bayside queens ny
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
Morningstar star shows slyv returned an average of 4.86% the last 15 years and 5.06% the last 10pmward wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:21 pm I am studying some charts this weekend, trying to figure out levels that I would overbalance stocks. I happened to notice that S&P 600 ETF's are below the level they were at in the 2007 peak. SCV has effectively wiped out 13 years of price appreciation and dropped 48% from the peak. WOW did that escalate quickly!
Total market fund returned 6.73 over the 15 year and 8.97 the last 10
Re: Stock scream room
Yeah, the trends for both small and value have been pretty bad for a long time. To me though, we have just gotten silly in the last couple of weeks. The spreads in both are looking like a blowoff top to me. To show what I'm seeing here is a couple screenshots charting the spreads:
The above the weekly spread between IWM and SPY or the spread between R2K small caps and S&P 500. Large has been dominating since summer 2018. This weeks candle looks like a potential bottoming candle to me. I'm looking to see if we get follow through next week with small cap relative outperformance.
The above is the weekly spread between IWY and IWN or the spread between R2K growth and R2K value. Growth has been dominating since the start of 2017.
You can see in both of these cases, we have broken out of the trend line explosively. To me, this screams of blowoff top. I expect some mean reversion at some point, with both value and small catching a bid vs growth and large. Now, whether or not that will be a new trend, or just a pullback in the current trend, I'm not sure yet. But I do expect to see some life coming in small and value spaces, as the current spread is not sustainable.
The above the weekly spread between IWM and SPY or the spread between R2K small caps and S&P 500. Large has been dominating since summer 2018. This weeks candle looks like a potential bottoming candle to me. I'm looking to see if we get follow through next week with small cap relative outperformance.
The above is the weekly spread between IWY and IWN or the spread between R2K growth and R2K value. Growth has been dominating since the start of 2017.
You can see in both of these cases, we have broken out of the trend line explosively. To me, this screams of blowoff top. I expect some mean reversion at some point, with both value and small catching a bid vs growth and large. Now, whether or not that will be a new trend, or just a pullback in the current trend, I'm not sure yet. But I do expect to see some life coming in small and value spaces, as the current spread is not sustainable.
- Ad Orientem
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3483
- Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
- Location: Florida USA
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
FWIW I think this is a classic bear market (sucker's) rally. Also known as a dead cat bounce. Until we have some idea of how long this is going to last, I don't expect much in the form of a sustainable rally. And that isn't going to happen until we get a vaccine and or some kind of effective treatment.
Re: Stock scream room
Probably everyone and their brother was short with leverage. You get a little reversal on better news, and it whips back with a vengeance, because they have to cover their shorts. It doesn't mean things are "better". It's just traders. My wife wants out if we get a substantial bounce.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:10 pm FWIW I think this is a classic bear market (sucker's) rally. Also known as a dead cat bounce. Until we have some idea of how long this is going to last, I don't expect much in the form of a sustainable rally. And that isn't going to happen until we get a vaccine and or some kind of effective treatment.
Re: Stock scream room
I've never seen a bear market with only 1 leg down. Most have 3-5 down legs, with periodic multi-week 15-30% rallies in between. I'm looking to buy stocks around 1900. That's my speculation as to where this will eventually land us. I still see too many bullish people calling the bottom. They are still intoxicated from the blowoff top that was shockingly only 4 weeks ago. I think we need at least a bull trap rally to get them in and another slow drop down. Even the Q1 and Q4 2018 corrections both had 2 legs down with a rally in between.
Re: Stock scream room
Just playing devil's advocate: if this is in fact a return to the bull market, then what happened won't be considered a bear marked, and so your observation will still remain true, while not being predictive.
Re: Stock scream room
You're right, depending on the definition. The media's arbitrary definition of 20% down definitely leaves a lot to be desired. I do personally think that a bear market needs to be a down trend, and the only way you have a confirmed trend would be to see the chart registering a series of lower highs and lower lows. So yes, by this definition you would be totally correct that it would not even be a bear market if we just V shaped back to all-time highs. And this scenario isn't out of the realm of possibility, though it is a low probability. The stock market is a leading indicator, so I do expect it to turn up when the news flow is still really bad. But it still seems a bit soonish for that to me. But crazier things have happened.
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
Re: Stock scream room
Right.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:10 pm FWIW I think this is a classic bear market (sucker's) rally. Also known as a dead cat bounce. Until we have some idea of how long this is going to last, I don't expect much in the form of a sustainable rally. And that isn't going to happen until we get a vaccine and or some kind of effective treatment.
Re: Stock scream room
So futures are down now -0.79% for SPX.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14298
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
I think tech used the term “bull trap” in another thread, probably the gold screamatorium.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:10 pm FWIW I think this is a classic bear market (sucker's) rally. Also known as a dead cat bounce. Until we have some idea of how long this is going to last, I don't expect much in the form of a sustainable rally. And that isn't going to happen until we get a vaccine and or some kind of effective treatment.
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
Re: Stock scream room
I thought it was here, but maybe not.dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:26 pmI think tech used the term “bull trap” in another thread, probably the gold screamatorium.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:10 pm FWIW I think this is a classic bear market (sucker's) rally. Also known as a dead cat bounce. Until we have some idea of how long this is going to last, I don't expect much in the form of a sustainable rally. And that isn't going to happen until we get a vaccine and or some kind of effective treatment.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14298
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
Gold scream, bottom of p229. You were talking about getting out of a speculation, a call option.
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
-
- Associate Member
- Posts: 39
- Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:46 pm
Re: Stock scream room
Is this the scream room?
SMALL CAP VALUE SMALL CAP VALUE ARRRRRRGH @#$@%@#$@#$ WTF
SMALL CAP VALUE SMALL CAP VALUE ARRRRRRGH @#$@%@#$@#$ WTF
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
Re: Stock scream room
<boglehead>mdwilson1991 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:10 am Is this the scream room?
SMALL CAP VALUE SMALL CAP VALUE ARRRRRRGH @#$@%@#$@#$ WTF
If you want to earn the risk premium, you have to take the risk.
</boglehead>
- vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9481
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
Meaning there is no true risk premium? That it is a direct, straight line relationship between its reward and risk?Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:13 am<boglehead>mdwilson1991 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:10 am Is this the scream room?
SMALL CAP VALUE SMALL CAP VALUE ARRRRRRGH @#$@%@#$@#$ WTF
If you want to earn the risk premium, you have to take the risk.
</boglehead>
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
Re: Stock scream room
No, meaning that you actually can't "earn" the risk premium.vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:43 amMeaning there is no true risk premium? That it is a direct, straight line relationship between its reward and risk?Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:13 am<boglehead>mdwilson1991 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:10 am Is this the scream room?
SMALL CAP VALUE SMALL CAP VALUE ARRRRRRGH @#$@%@#$@#$ WTF
If you want to earn the risk premium, you have to take the risk.
</boglehead>
Vinny
The correct statement would be something like "According to our historical models based on less than 100 years of data from one stock market out of hundreds, if you buy and hold equities it is more likely than not that you will wind up ahead over a timeframe measured in decades."
But that's not nearly as reassuring to people who are watching their life savings dwindle by the day.
Re: Stock scream room
Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.
Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
- vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9481
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
Has February 20, 2020 generally been accepted as "The Top"?ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.
Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
Re: Stock scream room
But I thought they were all going to stay the course?ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.
Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?