Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Tue May 23, 2017 10:10 am
Time for another trim. My S&P shares are just below doubling, 99.93%
(from the thread, "I think I'll rebalance today")
My indie stocks doubled overall yesterday for the first time in my lifetime. 2004 was when I first started really buying, and I mostly stopped around 2010, opting for index funds. I'm not a good picker. I just held on for the dividends. What a feeling. Ready for the value to get cut in half now...
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:45 pm
FB -3.28%
NFLX -4.73%
AAPL -3.88%
GOOG -3.41%
MSFT -2.27
AMZN -3.16%
TSLA -3..43%
TWTR -3.92%
SNAP -4.08%
I wonder what will be going through tech investors' minds this weekend? Buy the f***ing dip? Or sell? Monday might be interesting.
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Kbg
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by Kbg » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:07 pm
Phhhhfffbbbtttt...nothing. My NVDA crashed better than any of those wusses today.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:26 pm
I'm going to convert to mutual funds, so there's no ticker to watch all day long.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:31 pm
ochotona wrote:I'm going to convert to mutual funds, so there's no ticker to watch all day long.
VITAX?
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:16 am
I am a Schwabbie, so SWPPX or SWISX
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:05 pm
Kbg wrote:Phhhhfffbbbtttt...nothing. My NVDA crashed better than any of those wusses today.
Oh, how I wish I'd bought NVDA. Most of the bitcoin and ether miners are using it, apparently.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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Kbg
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by Kbg » Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:24 pm
Yeah, it has been a good ride. Bumpy though.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:14 pm
The market is so resilient, isn't it? North Korea, no problem. Domestic strife, fine.
The market knows that everything is fine.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:31 am
dualstow wrote:The market is so resilient, isn't it? North Korea, no problem. Domestic strife, fine.
The market knows that everything is fine.
https://youtu.be/cCKONHUigVk
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sun Aug 27, 2017 7:14 pm
I wonder if Houston will impact the market on Monday. Talk about Black Swans.
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Tyler
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by Tyler » Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:53 pm
ochotona wrote:I wonder if Houston will impact the market on Monday. Talk about Black Swans.
Apparently gold floats.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:07 pm
ochotona wrote:I wonder if Houston will impact the market on Monday. Talk about Black Swans.
Is it really a Black Swan though?
Tyler wrote:Apparently gold floats.
ha!
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:47 am
The severity and economic impact was a black "egret". I think the market doesn't know how to price it yet. This area has a huge GDP, larger than many nations.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:04 pm
The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.
Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.
We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.
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Xan
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by Xan » Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:23 pm
ochotona wrote:The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.
Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.
We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.
Have you sold your stocks?
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:38 pm
Xan wrote:ochotona wrote:The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.
Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.
We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.
Have you sold your stocks?
No, I'm a trend-follower. I'll take a loss, then I'll sell {then they'll go up}
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Mr Vacuum
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by Mr Vacuum » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:55 pm
ochotona wrote:The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.
Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.
We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.
Still nothing. I hear gas prices are rising, but the stock market and energy sector carry on.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:24 am
Mr Vacuum wrote:Still nothing. I hear gas prices are rising, but the stock market and energy sector carry on.
FYI, the campuses of BP, ConocoPhillips, and Shell are underwater. We'll see who gets to work next week. Many of their employees are in shelters because they are flooded out, they have no cars to get to work. 10% of structures on the County tax rolls have water in them.
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Mr Vacuum
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by Mr Vacuum » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:07 am
ochotona wrote:Mr Vacuum wrote:Still nothing. I hear gas prices are rising, but the stock market and energy sector carry on.
FYI, the campuses of BP, ConocoPhillips, and Shell are underwater. We'll see who gets to work next week. Many of their employees are in shelters because they are flooded out, they have no cars to get to work. 10% of structures on the County tax rolls have water in them.
(plugs ears)
I can't hear you!
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sophie
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by sophie » Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:54 pm
Absolute market price fluctuation is probably not a good barometer for such events:
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/5-worst-d ... ct-cm68124
Perhaps it's not the absolute gains or losses, but rather the performance relative to what it might have been absent the hurricane. It may be that without it, stocks would have jumped after seeing the August jobs report. Instead, they've been fairly flat or gone up only slightly.
This is kind of like Obama's problem after the economic stimulus: there was no way to know if it worked or not.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:36 am
bit.ly/2hH3pCX
Risk of a melt-up cited. LizAnn Sonders is always a perma-bull, so if she talks about a melt-up, then it could be underway already.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:02 pm
I just reduced my equity exposure from 60% to 55%. With trendfollowing that's likely HBPP drawdown levels. It's getting too crazy.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:37 pm
Liz Ann Sonders and Randy A. Frederick from Schwab have just gotten on a video today, where they have been gently reminding clients that
maybe things are getting too frothy, they've sensed sentiment shifting to extremely positive and speculative just in the past few weeks... they are perma-bulls, so maybe this is as much warning as they will ever issue!
https://youtu.be/PTuQGdtlaRY