Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:00 am

ochotona wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:06 am
Amazing no screaming here. I guess everyone was expecting some declines eventually.
It’s all in the Gold section.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:00 am

Here comes the snapback. Let's see if it goes until the close.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:02 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:00 am
Here comes the snapback. Let's see if it goes until the close.
Lost and Regained
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by matt2499 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:43 pm

Jan Van wrote:
Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:13 am
At least TSLA and TWTR are up today, happy with that :-)
TSLA too crazy of a roller coaster to handle right now
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:05 pm

#markettiming

What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
RIP Marcello Gandini
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:43 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:05 pm
#markettiming

What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
Go RealInvestmentAdvice.com, subscribe to the weekly Newsletter, and use the Real 401(k) Manager (at the bottom of the weekly newsletter) to manage the VP. Lance Roberts will advise you to be 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of full strength. It's free.

Or, use my blog. Subscribe to my GEM blog, and use the signals for managing the VP. Not as nuanced as Lance Roberts, all-in or all-out.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:37 pm

Is that a yes or a no, Ocho? O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:40 am

ochotona wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:43 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:05 pm
#markettiming

What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
Go RealInvestmentAdvice.com, subscribe to the weekly Newsletter, and use the Real 401(k) Manager (at the bottom of the weekly newsletter) to manage the VP. Lance Roberts will advise you to be 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of full strength. It's free.

Or, use my blog. Subscribe to my GEM blog, and use the signals for managing the VP. Not as nuanced as Lance Roberts, all-in or all-out.
Interesting life you’ve carved out for yourself Ocho.
Just visited your blog.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:33 am

I am super glad I ran into trend-following. I think it was Machine Ghost who tipped me off.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:02 pm

Ochotona = Pika?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 pm

Now that's a rally. Might even last through the day.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:06 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 pm
Now that's a rally. Might even last through the day.
Insane!
NFLX up 15%+ after hours on EPS beat.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:07 pm

I'm glad to hear it. My family has done well with Netflix but I'm below breakeven myself, on that one.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:21 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:06 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 pm
Now that's a rally. Might even last through the day.
Insane!
NFLX up 15%+ after hours on EPS beat.
NFLX is up there with AMZN on the number of people who have been bashing it for burning cash for years but they have yet to stop going up. And the people who bash have not stopped bashing. One in particular I recall was calling to short AMZN in the $600s a couple years ago.

I don't really understand the passion some people have with their positions on certain stocks (or gold, or bonds). Why beat yourself up with the wrong analysis, day after day, year after year? Yeah, maybe one day you'll be right and AMZN will lose 50% of its value but that will be to a level higher than when you called to short it.

Just own some of all of them with the PP.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:30 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:21 pm


I don't really understand the passion some people have with their positions on certain stocks (or gold, or bonds). Why beat yourself up with the wrong analysis, day after day, year after year?
In the late 90s and early aughts, it was short sellers on AOL and Yahoo Message Boards trying to convince everyone to sell.
this bloated pig is going down!
Now, there's no excuse. O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:46 pm

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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:11 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:46 pm
Bogle

https://youtu.be/x5fX0CdESMk
Yeah, saw that on Bogleheads. Now they’re resuming that perennial argument about international vs all U.S. Why do I even lurk.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:37 pm

Stocks are inflation + dividend. Gambling/hot money cycles in the short term

Inflation can be "good" when its smart loans being made or gov printing money for infrastructure. 2007 was dumb loans inflation and Iraq war
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:24 am

Schwab, 10/12/2018:

"Stock market action recently illustrates again why it’s important for investors to remain disciplined and diversified in a way consistent with their risk tolerances and investment goals. The bull market may have more legs, and upside surprises are possible, but risks have been rising over the past year or so, leading us to be more cautious and recommend that investors limit the risk in their portfolios."

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/ ... erspective
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:42 pm

Just picked up Ned Davis Research Group's note for October at Schwab.com

MORE EVIDENCE OF A GLOBAL BEAR MARKET
With Technology and U.S. benchmarks joining other global indices on the downside, it has become increasingly evident that stocks remain in a global bear market that started in January. Our Bear Watch report has moved closer to providing its confirmation, in which case we will be likely to downgrade equities to an underweight allocation for the first time in nearly a decade. An oversold bounce would provide a selling opportunity
for that downgrade.

55% equites, 35% bonds, 10% cash is their recommendation for risk-intolerant conservative investors.

{Ochotona is 45% equities, 35% bonds, 10% cash, 10% gold}
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Don » Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:57 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:42 pm
Just picked up Ned Davis Research Group's note for October at Schwab.com

MORE EVIDENCE OF A GLOBAL BEAR MARKET
With Technology and U.S. benchmarks joining other global indices on the downside, it has become increasingly evident that stocks remain in a global bear market that started in January. Our Bear Watch report has moved closer to providing its confirmation, in which case we will be likely to downgrade equities to an underweight allocation for the first time in nearly a decade. An oversold bounce would provide a selling opportunity
for that downgrade.

55% equites, 35% bonds, 10% cash is their recommendation for risk-intolerant conservative investors.

{Ochotona is 45% equities, 35% bonds, 10% cash, 10% gold}
"Bonds" is such a vague term. What kind of bonds?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:30 pm

Yeah, right... Subprime is contained blah blah blah

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin dismissed concerns that China’s weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis could spill into other emerging markets and destabilize U.S. financial markets.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:12 am

November: Ned Davis is 50% equities now
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:10 pm

Another day another puke. Could be January 2008 again for all we know...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:00 pm

From my friend Lance Roberts:

"Last week, we further reduced equity risk further bringing exposures down to just 40% of our portfolios. On a rally to the 200-dma which fails, we will reduce risk more and add negative hedges to portfolios."
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