Stock scream room

[dualstow]

I wonder if Houston will impact the market on Monday. Talk about Black Swans.

Is it really a Black Swan though?

Apparently gold floats.

ha!

[ochotona]

The severity and economic impact was a black "egret". I think the market doesn't know how to price it yet. This area has a huge GDP, larger than many nations.

[ochotona]

The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.

Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.

We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.

[Xan]

The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.

Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.

We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.

Have you sold your stocks?

[ochotona]

The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.

Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.

We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.

Have you sold your stocks?

No, I'm a trend-follower. I'll take a loss, then I'll sell {then they'll go up}

[Mr Vacuum]

The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.

Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.

We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.

Still nothing. I hear gas prices are rising, but the stock market and energy sector carry on.

[ochotona]

Still nothing. I hear gas prices are rising, but the stock market and energy sector carry on.

FYI, the campuses of BP, ConocoPhillips, and Shell are underwater. We'll see who gets to work next week. Many of their employees are in shelters because they are flooded out, they have no cars to get to work. 10% of structures on the County tax rolls have water in them.

[Mr Vacuum]

Still nothing. I hear gas prices are rising, but the stock market and energy sector carry on.

FYI, the campuses of BP, ConocoPhillips, and Shell are underwater. We'll see who gets to work next week. Many of their employees are in shelters because they are flooded out, they have no cars to get to work. 10% of structures on the County tax rolls have water in them.

(plugs ears) I can't hear you!

[sophie]

Absolute market price fluctuation is probably not a good barometer for such events:

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/5-worst-d ... ct-cm68124

Perhaps it's not the absolute gains or losses, but rather the performance relative to what it might have been absent the hurricane. It may be that without it, stocks would have jumped after seeing the August jobs report. Instead, they've been fairly flat or gone up only slightly.

This is kind of like Obama's problem after the economic stimulus: there was no way to know if it worked or not.

[ochotona]

bit.ly/2hH3pCX

Risk of a melt-up cited. LizAnn Sonders is always a perma-bull, so if she talks about a melt-up, then it could be underway already.

[Cortopassi]

I am really going to enjoy seeing the tweets, or lack of them, when/if this reverses during his term. Anyone's fault but his, of course, when it goes down.

[ochotona]

I just reduced my equity exposure from 60% to 55%. With trendfollowing that's likely HBPP drawdown levels. It's getting too crazy.

[ochotona]

Liz Ann Sonders and Randy A. Frederick from Schwab have just gotten on a video today, where they have been gently reminding clients that maybe things are getting too frothy, they've sensed sentiment shifting to extremely positive and speculative just in the past few weeks... they are perma-bulls, so maybe this is as much warning as they will ever issue!

https://youtu.be/PTuQGdtlaRY

[ochotona]

On the other hand, if I held 60% in stocks and followed an active trading philosophy like our friend ochotona, I'd be on edge right now too.

Actually, my downside due to stocks is just about like the PP. Trend following will reduce the drawdown by at least half, so at 55% stocks, really the drawdown in a 2008-2009 scenario is going to be -10%-ish. But you do have to be awake on the last day of the month and decide to trade or not based on very simple metrics.

[dualstow]

I'm at 50% stocks, give or take, so I will be hurt by a stock crash, psychologically. On the other hand, I'm young enough that I should be wishing for stocks to get cheap.

[ochotona]

I'm at 50% stocks, give or take, so I will be hurt by a stock crash, psychologically. On the other hand, I'm young enough that I should be wishing for stocks to get cheap.

Subscribe by email or RSS to my trendfollowing signals. Then get out of stocks when the getting's good. Don't ride them down to the abyss. Gemsignals.blogspot.com

[dualstow]

I appreciate it, but I'll pass. They're mostly dividend paying stocks, those that aren't in the pp. (PP has index funds).

[dualstow]

What's NW- oh, I got it. Net Worth.

[Cortopassi]

Is it possible the computers/algos/powers that be, etc have such good control this time around that the markets really will never go down?

I almost ask that seriously. Not that I am going above my allocation, but damn it is freaking unstoppable.

[dualstow]

Is it possible the computers/algos/powers that be, etc have such good control this time around that the markets really will never go down?

I almost ask that seriously. Not that I am going above my allocation, but damn it is freaking unstoppable.

Hey, the market has to set new records somehow. This is how it happened in the past. We all just look more often now that it's this high.

[buddtholomew]

Look at GE.
Trough (pre-market) to close today + 11% AFTER missing earnings and guiding -30% lower.

You were saying this market is not rigged...

[eufo]

BUY! BUY! BUY!

XIV is getting ridiculous

[Kriegsspiel]

[eufo]

Kinda puts it in perspective... nicely done, sir.

[boglerdude]

Re: Market cap to GDP

"Buffett's Favorite Market Cap To GDP Metric Is Useless"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/408096 ... ic-useless