Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:31 am

A lot of the stock market selling he's going to turn out to be tax-loss harvesting. people talk about a Santa Claus rally but the Santa Claus rally really doesn't statistically take place until after Christmas.

Postscript Dec 25 - Lance Roberts looking for 2620-2650 as a possible oversold rally target.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm

Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:23 pm

Not every day you see 1000 points, wow.

Still, my rebalance is now buy 98% stocks, a sliver of bonds, and actually selling gold. Interesting.

We'll see what that looks like when I really will rebalance in early Jan after contributing to my IRAs.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:42 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:48 am

I took a look. While I agree with the author that holding stocks long term does not magically alleviate risk and turn them into bonds, it is the only way to fly if you are going to hold stocks at all. I mean I would rather shun equities altogether rather than try to time. How bout you?
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:42 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:22 am

My objective is to have enough assets I don't have to worry about it.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:35 am

Ned Davis Research, in their monthly outlook, has lowered the stock allocation for their portfolio for risk averse investors to 40%. Normally it's 55%. This is the most cautious they've been since the GFC of 2008.

"On December 20, we reduced our recommended stock allocation by 10% and shifted it to bonds in our balanced account strategy. We have reached the downside extreme of what we would ever recommend for stock allocation, which has ranged from 40% to an upside limit of 70% since first constraining the allocation in 2008."
Last edited by ochotona on Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:29 pm

Image

The Buffet Indicator is at 130. My total stock allocation right now is just under 50%.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:23 pm

Dow is now out of correction territory.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:41 pm

Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests “Yes”

GMO White Paper, Marn Tarlie, January 2019

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx16Ir ... sp=sharing

Key Points
■ A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
■ Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
■ Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:19 am

Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:59 am

boglerdude wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:19 am
Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers
Malinvestment... Everything?

Buying back shares with covenant lite BBB corporate debt (wink) instead of property, plant, equipment, R&D?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:20 pm

Plants to build what? There's ample global industrial capacity
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:52 am

There was a good quote in The Age Of Stagnation by Satyajit Das where a corporate CEO said something like "Money isn't the problem. I can go out tomorrow and get a billion dollars at 0% interest. The problem I have is; what am I going to do with it? What am I going to spend it on?" They don't seem to have good ideas for it, so they buy back shares.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:28 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:52 am
There was a good quote in The Age Of Stagnation by Satyajit Das where a corporate CEO said something like "Money isn't the problem. I can go out tomorrow and get a billion dollars at 0% interest. The problem I have is; what am I going to do with it? What am I going to spend it on?" They don't seem to have good ideas for it, so they buy back shares.
Like all of the Stars Wars sequels still had to invoke the frickin Death Star. Completely out of ideas, so buy back shares, get my bonus, pump and dump.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:46 am

Not only do you appear to read a book a week, Kriegs, but you also have excellent recall.
Seems that way.
If it's anything denser than Stephen King, I can't read a book in a week.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:40 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:46 am
Not only do you appear to read a book a week, Kriegs, but you also have excellent recall.
Seems that way.
If it's anything denser than Stephen King, I can't read a book in a week.
“A reader lives a thousand lives before he dies. The man who never reads lives only one.”
- George RR Martin*


* writer of books of equal density as Stephen King
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:06 pm

They’re also fans of each other.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:56 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:28 am
Completely out of ideas, so buy back shares, get my bonus, pump and dump.
Hey, they're not totally out of ideas on how to spend dat money.
Messaging startup Hustle projected the picture of Silicon Valley largess. The company spent millions of dollars raised from investors such as Alphabet Inc. GOOGL 1.62% on expensive new hires, on-tap kombucha, arcade games and a six-figure salary for its pedigreed chief executive.

So it came as a shock to many employees earlier this month when co-founder and CEO Roddy Lindsay sent them an early-morning email announcing mass layoffs. Before the week was done, even the espresso machine was ripped out of the kitchen at Hustle’s San Francisco headquarters.

Hustle is hardly the first startup to spend lavishly in an era of technology riches. What is new these days: The bill is coming due.
. . .
“The unbridled optimism that inhabits our world,” said startup investor Sunny Dhillon, “is getting a shot of realism.” link
The spokeswoman said about 70% of the company’s operating costs go toward salaries and benefits. Hustle paid Mr. Lindsay $125,000 a year, which the spokeswoman described as more than 60% below market rate. Last week, Mr. Lindsay agreed to reduce his annual pay to $55,000, she said.

Mr. Lindsay has told associates he is bringing in a new high-level hire for strategic help. The new executive is well-known, according to a person briefed, for having helped liquidate Pets.com during the dot-com bust.
:D
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jan 26, 2019 1:57 pm

I've been listening to Joe Rogan's podcasts recently, and I'm on his (superb) #910 with Gary Vaynerchuck, and he said something that made me think of this thread (well, that article I just posted, but I felt like sharing anyways).

At 1:39:20:
Gary: And then you had the worst wave [of tech entrepreneurs], which was the people who blindly just thought, because they were 22 and wore a hoodie, that they were gonna invent the next Facebook.

Joe: Yea there's a lot of posers, right?

Gary: You understand that there's a very big difference between being an entrepreneur... and being a successful entrepreneur. But the market right now, everyone's like 'oh, you're a CEO and an entrepreneur?!' Like as if you won. That's like me saying I'm a basketball player. I play basketball, but I'm not making any fucking money. And so yea, we have a real issue in fake entrepreneurship right now. Everybody thinks it's cool; it became cool.
It's like these tech companies have been infected by a meme that says they have to have arcade basketball games and ping pong tables next to their desks. Even if they're not successful enough to retain their employees, they want to LARP like they're Facebook or Google.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:37 pm

These posts remind me of articles about San Franciscans resenting all the dot comers moving in. They were pleased by the last real bust. Alas, it looks like they’re there to stay. (Except the wise ones moving to Austin and other places).
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:29 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:37 pm
These posts remind me of articles about San Franciscans resenting all the dot comers moving in. They were pleased by the last real bust. Alas, it looks like they’re there to stay. (Except the wise ones moving to Austin and other places).
Californian binches, fu**ing stay out of Texas
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:36 pm

O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:25 am

It's not just the productive Californians.
Image
Yet another friend in LA has been blogging about the ubiquitous homeless camps in his neighborhood and how everything the city does (or doesn’t do) makes the situation worse – at enormous expense. The persistent lack of new smaller less expensive accommodations coupled with all sorts of other decades-long structural changes in the economy have created a homeless crisis. And the homeless population isn’t evenly distributed across LA. Palos Verdes, Century City, Bel Air, and Beverly Hills are relentless in their removal of undesirables. Fair-to-middling Van Nuys? It tends to absorb more than its share. His proposed solution is to gather up the homeless and relocate them.

“I am not opposed to using the Prop. H tax to pay relocation costs to the Rust Belt, or any place which would take them.”

Image

“At the Sherman Oaks bridge housing meeting someone suggested a sober living trailer city in the Antelope Valley. If people are serious about addressing the personal crises driving addiction and self-defeat, this is not a bad idea.”

“I think we can agree a trailer compound would have to be well off the beaten path. Not downtown Palmdale. Something like Slab City, but with structure. There’s a lot of rural space up off the 138 in northern LA county.”

Image

Ah yes. I can see the good people of Youngstown, Ohio and Antelope Acres so eager to receive steady flows of Los Angeles’s broken cast offs. How totally unlike Palos Verdes and Century City playing whack-a-mole and pushing the homeless over to Van Nuys… I wonder if my friend is aware of how heavily armed the folks in Antelope Acres are. Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition. Fun! link
Fucking crazy right?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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