Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu May 07, 2020 12:24 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:16 pm
I sold stocks at or just before the top, then I put about 1/3 back in at the very bottom ($100 for my newsletter). So now I have some cash waiting, but I'm not that stressed at the valuations that stocks raced back up to. I'm ok with taking the "loss" for the optionality of the cash. If I'm looking at the long term, I'm down with having some assets "languish in cash," or "pay for optionality," until stocks make sense again.
Yep, it is nice to have that optionality. This was the position I was in Q4 2018. I got out early, and back in early, and started pulling some chips off the table and diversifying while everyone else was chasing back into the market. That was actually when I started my transition down the PP road, taking profits from that big run up following the Christmas Eve bottom and moving them into bonds and gold.

I tried for awhile to go straight up buy and hold, and I found out really quickly in April that even in a GB buy and hold on 100% of my portfolio is not for me. I settled on 40% PP as having a 40% conservative buy and rebalance allocation is a good anchor to allow me to chase alpha in my quant and active trading strategies (and all 3 give me added non-correlated strategy diversification benefits). The quant trend following strategy will help me do the same thing you did next time, get out early and back in at a decent enough entry to be ahead of the curve and not feel like I have to play catchup. And I'm pretty good at managing my risk in my active allocation, but definitely did not want to have more than 30% of my portfolio under active trading just because if I am trading with too large of a chunk of money, and I am in cash looking for trades I have a tendency to start getting impatient and trying to force trades to happen instead of waiting for the right trades to come to me. All 3 PP, trend, and active trading strategy allocations help create a total portfolio that I can 100% comply with and trust.
Last edited by pmward on Thu May 07, 2020 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mathjak107
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Thu May 07, 2020 12:30 pm

Same here , I have about one third in permanent portfolio,which is a fair amount and 7 figures ..then 2/3’s are in the fidelity insight income model ...then we hold a lot of cash ......I find it is a good balance ...
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 07, 2020 12:38 pm

I meant to say I sold some stocks. The way I wrote it might make it seem like I pulled off the Ocho, but I didn't ;D
There's this very disturbing set of studies where about half the articles printed in Science and Nature magazines, the two leading publications, involved experiments that could not be repeated by anybody.
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pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu May 07, 2020 12:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:30 pm
Same here , I have about one third in permanent portfolio,which is a fair amount and 7 figures ..then 2/3’s are in the fidelity insight income model ...then we hold a lot of cash ......I find it is a good balance ...
One thing I have thought to myself a lot lately when reading all the posts of people worrying about bonds and the PP, is that maybe if they had a VP as well it would help fix the issue? I think there was a reason why Harry encouraged people to have a VP for any cash beyond "the money they can't afford to lose". There are definitely psychological benefits to have some control and strategy diversification... but keeping the allocation that you can control limited and having a PP (or other highly diversified conservative portfolio) allocation as an anchor is also a really good thing. At the end of the day the most important thing is compliance. Investment strategies are like diets. You can have the best and most optimal strategy/diet in the world, but if you cannot comply with your strategy/diet, what good is it?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu May 07, 2020 12:48 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:38 pm
I meant to say I sold some stocks. The way I wrote it might make it seem like I pulled off the Ocho, but I didn't ;D
Oh, even I did that. O0 (VP only)
No, I remember you used the term, sold "chunks of stocks" in a timely manner.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 07, 2020 12:49 pm

Couldn't agree more.

I don't really fuck with my investments too much. I just kinda nudge them now and then.

If you can't help yourself and you know you're going to be balls deep trading options on margin or whatever the fuck, maybe you just don't keep any cookies in the house (to mix my analogies).
There's this very disturbing set of studies where about half the articles printed in Science and Nature magazines, the two leading publications, involved experiments that could not be repeated by anybody.
- Peter Thiel
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 07, 2020 12:51 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:48 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:38 pm
I meant to say I sold some stocks. The way I wrote it might make it seem like I pulled off the Ocho, but I didn't ;D
Oh, even I did that. O0 (VP only)
No, I remember you used the term, sold "chunks of stocks" in a timely manner.
Mmmmmm, chunks.

Cookie dough.

Dammit.
There's this very disturbing set of studies where about half the articles printed in Science and Nature magazines, the two leading publications, involved experiments that could not be repeated by anybody.
- Peter Thiel
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon May 11, 2020 2:24 pm

Buy The Dip... ever hilarious

https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4
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Vil
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Wed May 13, 2020 9:14 am

pmward wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:39 pm
Investment strategies are like diets.
Master dietologist, how do you see SPX recently ? Isn't the index forming a double top (of type Adam & Eve, according to Thomas Bulkowski ;D ) after 21-22 April ?

PS. Sometimes, I see patterns around me, its highly obsessive have to admit hahaha.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed May 13, 2020 9:26 am

Vil wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 9:14 am
pmward wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:39 pm
Investment strategies are like diets.
Master dietologist, how do you see SPX recently ? Isn't the index forming a double top (of type Adam & Eve, according to Thomas Bulkowski ;D ) after 21-22 April ?

PS. Sometimes, I see patterns around me, its highly obsessive have to admit hahaha.
Double top's do not exist until they set a lower low. As long as we are above SPY 279.13 we have not set a lower low, and we cannot say it is a double top. The market can still go back above and set that higher high. Two down days does not make a trend. A pattern is also not complete until it breaks up or down. And even if the 279.13 fails, we have the 50 day SMA not too far below at 271.25. It is not uncommon early bull market behavior to go and retest the 50 day SMA prior to going to try to break above the 200 day SMA. Keep an open mind, always look at both sides of the tape. Be careful of looking at the charts with a mind that is biased to one side or the other. For the moment we still have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows in tact. Until that is broken with a lower low the daily trend is still bullish.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed May 13, 2020 3:04 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 9:26 am
Vil wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 9:14 am
pmward wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:39 pm
Investment strategies are like diets.
Master dietologist, how do you see SPX recently ? Isn't the index forming a double top (of type Adam & Eve, according to Thomas Bulkowski ;D ) after 21-22 April ?

PS. Sometimes, I see patterns around me, its highly obsessive have to admit hahaha.
Double top's do not exist until they set a lower low. As long as we are above SPY 279.13 we have not set a lower low, and we cannot say it is a double top. The market can still go back above and set that higher high. Two down days does not make a trend. A pattern is also not complete until it breaks up or down. And even if the 279.13 fails, we have the 50 day SMA not too far below at 271.25. It is not uncommon early bull market behavior to go and retest the 50 day SMA prior to going to try to break above the 200 day SMA. Keep an open mind, always look at both sides of the tape. Be careful of looking at the charts with a mind that is biased to one side or the other. For the moment we still have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows in tact. Until that is broken with a lower low the daily trend is still bullish.
And the bulls stepped up below that $279.13 just like they should have. They tested it at around 3:15ET and then the bulls launched the price back up over $181 within minutes of the test. So while the SPY price was down today, the bears fumbled and failed to get the ball into the end zone. As long as we are above that $279.13 and the bulls are aggressively defending support like that, it is really hard to make a bearish case.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed May 13, 2020 8:01 pm

Funny, I was glued to SPY during that time as well and noticed a couple attempts to breach and hold below that 279 number. Low was 278.96, Close 281.60.

Been watching GDX for a good entry again after 35.20 sale.
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