Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Libertarian666
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:14 pm
As a lot of people are starting to become aware and seems like between:

--Potential anti-malarial drug help
--Models of spread possibly inconsistent/too negative with what is/may be happening
--Antibody test coming soon
--??

What's the way, if any to play this? There are many things to consider:

--A huge stimulus
--A potential sooner end to everyone getting back to somewhat normal
--A potential resurgence in a few months.

I rebalanced 33% what seems like a year ago but was only a little over a week.

--Overweight stocks and gold, underweight bonds?
--Any good ideas on indications on what might be a right time to tweak?
--Or not. Just looking to time a once in a lifetime "optimal" rebalance.
I would guess that bonds will get killed with inflation, whereas stocks will probably do okay.
Gold should be the big winner.

Don't listen to me though. I'm a gold bug.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:22 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:14 pm
What's the way, if any to play this? There are many things to consider:
...
--Or not. Just looking to time a once in a lifetime "optimal" rebalance.
It's easy to tell other people what to do.
Passively rebalance, by the numbers.
“As a white person of colour, I am extremely concerned about the rise of black whiteness.” — Titania McGrath
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:58 am

That's the Dow, not the S&P 500.. kind of a Doomer scenario for ya.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:09 pm

Ok, doomer.
“As a white person of colour, I am extremely concerned about the rise of black whiteness.” — Titania McGrath
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
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Smith1776
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:07 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:09 pm
Ok, doomer.
I need to play the latest Doom game. Just came out. And god knows I have the time nowadays.
Stocks let us eat well
Bonds let us sleep well
Gold let's us flee well
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:11 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:44 am
ochotona wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am
Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
But I thought they were all going to stay the course? :D
This has got to be my favourite 2 posts of all time on this forum.

And what are we doing on this forum compared to the Bogleheads? Having fun talking about cute cats, dogs, and spitballing about conspiracy theories. Our quality of life is just so much better. What kind of dollar value do you put on that?

The Bogleheads forum is like your arrogant teenage son who thinks he knows everything about how the world works, only to have to come running to his parents when he's caught smoking a joint at school.

lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
Stocks let us eat well
Bonds let us sleep well
Gold let's us flee well
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Tortoise
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:16 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:11 pm
lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
Apparently as long as you have an “asset allocation,” you get to keep your Boglehead card — even if you time the market by dynamically shifting your asset allocation around. ::)
Libertarian666
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:38 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:11 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:44 am
ochotona wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am
Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
But I thought they were all going to stay the course? :D
This has got to be my favourite 2 posts of all time on this forum.

And what are we doing on this forum compared to the Bogleheads? Having fun talking about cute cats, dogs, and spitballing about conspiracy theories. Our quality of life is just so much better. What kind of dollar value do you put on that?

The Bogleheads forum is like your arrogant teenage son who thinks he knows everything about how the world works, only to have to come running to his parents when he's caught smoking a joint at school.

lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
The main difference is that the most arrogant Bogleheads are usually of retirement age.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:54 am

ochotona wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am
Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
We have a little bit of that, too. :D
“As a white person of colour, I am extremely concerned about the rise of black whiteness.” — Titania McGrath
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
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shekels
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by shekels » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:53 am

dualstow wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:54 am
ochotona wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am
Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
We have a little bit of that, too. :D
I have not subscribed to BH.
So will someone let me know when they see this.
"I have Sold ALL my Stocks and Bonds and went totally to Cash."
Now I see they are going to devalue the Currency

::)
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:26 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:16 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:11 pm
lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
Apparently as long as you have an “asset allocation,” you get to keep your Boglehead card — even if you time the market by dynamically shifting your asset allocation around. ::)
Lots of people on this forum do the same thing. I'm one of them in the sense that I shifted from the PP to a GB thinking that "prosperity" is likely to dominate, so overweighting stocks would be better in the long run.

However, we are on average much happier and less tempted to market-time than your average 100% stocks investor...geez, those guys must be REALLY crying into their soup. Can't say they weren't warned though.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:30 pm

I really respect David Grabiner over there. He's 100% stocks and some of those stocks are extra risky. He seems...ok. But he's definitely in the minority and he never recommends his portfolio to anyone else.
“As a white person of colour, I am extremely concerned about the rise of black whiteness.” — Titania McGrath
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
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