Stock scream room

Cortopassi · Post by **Cortopassi** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:44 pm

Well, I did it. Now for the heart rate to go back to normal.

Good thing is this now makes me a bit more vested in the positive side on stocks, which is always tough for me.

Cortopassi · Post by **Cortopassi** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:39 pm

I should have waited until Trump started talking. When he said July or so for containment time, the market started going lower.

For posterity

pmward · Post by **pmward** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:02 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:39 pm I should have waited until Trump started talking. When he said July or so for containment time, the market started going lower.

For posterity

Yeah I'm happy I did my rebalance in my 401k when it would take the closing price. I said I wanted to rebalance between 2350 and 2400 and I got in at 2386. I'm happy with that. Now let's hope that important 2350 support line holds, else the next support line isn't for another 20% below that, which would be a 50% correction.

vnatale · Post by **vnatale** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:05 pm

pmward wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:02 pm
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:39 pm I should have waited until Trump started talking. When he said July or so for containment time, the market started going lower.

For posterity

Yeah I'm happy I did my rebalance in my 401k when it would take the closing price. I said I wanted to rebalance between 2350 and 2400 and I got in at 2386. I'm happy with that. Now let's hope that important 2350 support line holds, else the next support line isn't for another 20% below that, which would be a 50% correction.

Just while I have you here....I don't think this book is describing me or you??!!

Antisocial: Online Extremists, Techno-Utopians, and the Hijacking of the American Conversation

https://smile.amazon.com/Antisocial-Ext ... l_huc_item

Vinny

pmward · Post by **pmward** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:06 pm

vnatale wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:05 pm Just while I have you here....I don't think this book is describing me or you??!!

Antisocial: Online Extremists, Techno-Utopians, and the Hijacking of the American Conversation

https://smile.amazon.com/Antisocial-Ext ... l_huc_item

Vinny

Bwahahaha

vnatale · Post by **vnatale** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:07 pm

I just heard him say it!

"The market will be VERY strong once we get rid of the virus"

!!!!!

Vinny

pmward · Post by **pmward** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:13 pm

vnatale wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:07 pm I just heard him say it!

"The market will be VERY strong once we get rid of the virus"

!!!!!

Vinny

This is the same person who just on this last Saturday autographed an intraday chart of the Dow from Friday because of how strong of a day it was, hahaha.

Dieter · Post by **Dieter** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:34 pm

12-13% drop in US major indexes.

My, we are living in interesting times.

Ugly_Bird · Post by **Ugly_Bird** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:12 pm

vnatale wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:07 pm "The market will be VERY strong once we get rid of the virus"

Yep, sounds right.
The market became VERY strong after 2008 too...
It just took a little while :-)

vnatale · Post by **vnatale** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:31 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:12 pm
vnatale wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:07 pm "The market will be VERY strong once we get rid of the virus"
Yep, sounds right.
The market became VERY strong after 2008 too...
It just took a little while :-)

Really not that long. I believe it hit the bottom on March 9, 2009 (or so) but it came back quite quickly after that. Or, least that is what I'm hanging on to as I lose money at a rate that I have never prior in my life. Not 2000 to 2002. Not 2008 to 2009.

Vinny

sophie · Post by **sophie** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:37 pm

Still holding off on rebalancing. I decided I wanted to see my rebalance indicator be "yes" two days in a row, because it's going to take a bit of time for me to gather all the data from the various accounts and determine how best to rebalance. I don't imagine for a minute that I'll be able to guess the bottom, but I'm pretty sure it isn't today.

Interestingly, a friend of mine who holds a 100% cash portfolio responded to the financial armageddon by buying a car today. That's one way to rebalance!

Dieter · Post by **Dieter** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:41 pm

sophie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:37 pm
Interestingly, a friend of mine who holds a 100% cash portfolio responded to the financial armageddon by buying a car today. That's one way to rebalance!

Pay cash, or get a 0% loan? (Those it there yet?)

My car is getting long in the tooth, and if can get 0%, might be tempted.

Smith1776 · Post by **Smith1776** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:46 pm

sophie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:37 pm Still holding off on rebalancing. I decided I wanted to see my rebalance indicator be "yes" two days in a row, because it's going to take a bit of time for me to gather all the data from the various accounts and determine how best to rebalance. I don't imagine for a minute that I'll be able to guess the bottom, but I'm pretty sure it isn't today.

Interestingly, a friend of mine who holds a 100% cash portfolio responded to the financial armageddon by buying a car today. That's one way to rebalance!

A cash and car barbell portfolio lmao.

jalanlong · Post by **jalanlong** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:41 pm

sophie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:37 pm Still holding off on rebalancing. I decided I wanted to see my rebalance indicator be "yes" two days in a row, because it's going to take a bit of time for me to gather all the data from the various accounts and determine how best to rebalance. I don't imagine for a minute that I'll be able to guess the bottom, but I'm pretty sure it isn't today.

Interestingly, a friend of mine who holds a 100% cash portfolio responded to the financial armageddon by buying a car today. That's one way to rebalance!

I want to hear more about him! I’ve been tempted to move to 100% cash portfolio for several years for a variety of reasons.

Libertarian666 · Post by **Libertarian666** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:48 pm

jalanlong wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:41 pm
sophie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:37 pm Still holding off on rebalancing. I decided I wanted to see my rebalance indicator be "yes" two days in a row, because it's going to take a bit of time for me to gather all the data from the various accounts and determine how best to rebalance. I don't imagine for a minute that I'll be able to guess the bottom, but I'm pretty sure it isn't today.

Interestingly, a friend of mine who holds a 100% cash portfolio responded to the financial armageddon by buying a car today. That's one way to rebalance!
I want to hear more about him! I’ve been tempted to move to 100% cash portfolio for several years for a variety of reasons.

I have a 100% cash portfolio.
For some values of "cash", anyway.

stuper1 · Post by **stuper1** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:58 pm

Dieter wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:41 pm
sophie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:37 pm
Interestingly, a friend of mine who holds a 100% cash portfolio responded to the financial armageddon by buying a car today. That's one way to rebalance!
Pay cash, or get a 0% loan? (Those it there yet?)

My car is getting long in the tooth, and if can get 0%, might be tempted.

Yes, several auto makers are offering 0% for 48 to 72 months on select models right now.

vnatale · Post by **vnatale** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:15 pm

stuper1 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:58 pm
Dieter wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:41 pm
sophie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:37 pm
Interestingly, a friend of mine who holds a 100% cash portfolio responded to the financial armageddon by buying a car today. That's one way to rebalance!
Pay cash, or get a 0% loan? (Those it there yet?)

My car is getting long in the tooth, and if can get 0%, might be tempted.
Yes, several auto makers are offering 0% for 48 to 72 months on select models right now.

However, isn't this in lieu of offering rebates? I remember not that long ago you had a choice of a 0% loan or a rebate.

Vinny

Ugly_Bird · Post by **Ugly_Bird** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:24 pm

sophie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:37 pm Still holding off on rebalancing. I decided I wanted to see my rebalance indicator be "yes" two days in a row, because it's going to take a bit of time for me to gather all the data from the various accounts and determine how best to rebalance. I don't imagine for a minute that I'll be able to guess the bottom, but I'm pretty sure it isn't today.

Thank you Sophie for sharing this. My PP is quite spread out too with the overall lowest being stocks at about 20% and highest cash at 27%.
Still no need to rebalance. Everything now moves too fast. It has to settle at the rebalancing bands before I could sit down and do it.
A little puzzling at this point.

barrett · Post by **barrett** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:51 am

sophie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:37 pm Still holding off on rebalancing. I decided I wanted to see my rebalance indicator be "yes" two days in a row, because it's going to take a bit of time for me to gather all the data from the various accounts and determine how best to rebalance. I don't imagine for a minute that I'll be able to guess the bottom, but I'm pretty sure it isn't today.

Interestingly, a friend of mine who holds a 100% cash portfolio responded to the financial armageddon by buying a car today. That's one way to rebalance!

That must be the scientist in you, Sophie. Kind of like needing two negative tests in a row for a virus. I too am hesitant to rebalance into stocks just yet. It just seems that earnings are going to get killed across the board. And I am a bit reluctant to start selling off treasury debt. Soon maybe.

DW and I only hold high-quality, long-duration cars.

Post by **dualstow** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:55 am

I put a few hundred dollars into the total market every day. Whether this lasts days or years, it won’t feel like a mistake.

pmward · Post by **pmward** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:12 am

Stocks will eventually come back. I have no worries about the rebalance yesterday. Matter of fact, I feel better now, as rebalancing is no longer occupying my head space. It is done, and I like the risk/reward at that 2350-2400 area I rebalanced at. Now, if we should get another plunge, I am committing my next rebalance to be around those 2016 lows (1900-1950 range) which would be a ~50% total decline. I likely will hit another "band" by then, but even if not the risk/reward there is too good to pass up. That's the next area I would be comfortable pulling the next rebalance trigger.

Cortopassi · Post by **Cortopassi** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:18 am

I feel good about the partial rebalance as well.

Also helps gold has snapped back, though!

Tortoise · Post by **Tortoise** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:42 pm

Checked my accounts last night to see if any of them need rebalancing.

In most of them, last time I checked a few weeks ago, stocks had been at ~33-34%. I figured I'd have to rebalance soon when they hit the 35% band.

My stocks are now back ~25%. No gains harvested.

Libertarian666 · Post by **Libertarian666** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:56 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:42 pm Checked my accounts last night to see if any of them need rebalancing.

In most of them, last time I checked a few weeks ago, stocks had been at ~33-34%. I figured I'd have to rebalance soon when they hit the 35% band.

My stocks are now back ~25%. No gains harvested.

That is the easiest way, although not the most fun.

pmward · Post by **pmward** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:02 pm

Not surprisingly, value is looking like it is starting to perk up relative to growth. Maybe those GB SCV tilts may actually start to pay off?

Stock scream room

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