Stock scream room

[mathjak107]

in the end fdic is backed by the same owners as treasuries are ....for the most part i consider both pretty risk free.

money markets on the other hand can be much riskier even with the changes in what they hold .. i already lost money in a money market in 2008 that broke the buck. it is up to the brokerage to back stop money markets

[vnatale]

in the end fdic is backed by the same owners as treasuries are ....for the most part i consider both pretty risk free.

money markets on the other hand can be much riskier even with the changes in what they hold .. i already lost money in a money market in 2008 that broke the buck. it is up to the brokerage to back stop money markets

Would you think that both Vanguard and Fidelity would be high on the list of the brokerages to back stop their money markets? Or, not?

Vinny

[mathjak107]

they already had to do that in 2008 .... fidelity pumped in money in the 2008 crises to hold a buck

[vnatale]

they already had to do that in 2008 .... fidelity pumped in money in the 2008 crises to hold a buck

My question was whether YOU thought that each would do it, if necessary, this time around.

Vinny

[mathjak107]

they already had to do that in 2008 .... fidelity pumped in money in the 2008 crises to hold a buck

My question was whether YOU thought that each would do it, if necessary, this time around.

Vinny

yes , i believe they will do what they have to do .... i only feel that way about fidelity and vanguard ...

[vnatale]

they already had to do that in 2008 .... fidelity pumped in money in the 2008 crises to hold a buck

My question was whether YOU thought that each would do it, if necessary, this time around.

Vinny

yes , i believe they will do what they have to do .... i only feel that way about fidelity and vanguard ...

Thank you for your valued opinion!

Vinny

[mathjak107]

How accurate has the ig weekend Wall Street estimator been ? Never saw it until today and it is guesstimating down about 1000 when futures open Sunday night

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-i ... all-street

[Libertarian666]

How accurate has the ig weekend Wall Street estimator been ? Never saw it until today and it is guesstimating down about 1000 when futures open Sunday night

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-i ... all-street

It should be pretty accurate because people are risking their own money.

[pmward]

Monday's tend to be super volatile, and after the panic rally we had on Friday, I totally would not be surprised to have another big down day. I mean, when was the last time we had a daily move less than 5%? This volatility is just insane, especially compared to how low volatility was just a few short weeks ago.

[vnatale]

Monday's tend to be super volatile, and after the panic rally we had on Friday, I totally would not be surprised to have another big down day. I mean, when was the last time we had a daily move less than 5%? This volatility is just insane, especially compared to how low volatility was just a few short weeks ago.

1) Just another large piece of evidence that "the market" is quite irrational?

2) Somewhat throws into question the Efficient Market Hypothesis? Have the essential intermediate- to long-term fundamentals of any of the public companies really changed? But I guess most market investors are not true investors (aka company owners) like Warren Buffet but are instead speculators? Which would, of course, be the case if all this volatility is being driven by momentum trading determined by programs / machines who are composing the great majority of the buying and selling.

Vinny

[pmward]

Like WB says, the market in the short term is a voting machine and in the long term is a weighing machine. In the long term (10 year+ timeframe) fundamentals are what matters most. But on any timeframe less than that it's purely irrational, inefficient, and speculative at best. It's a bunch of people trying to divine the future. Markets are not as efficient as some pundits like to claim. I mean, if they were truly efficient we wouldn't have a boom/bust cycle like this. In the short to medium term, it's all greed and fear and nothing else. Greed and fear are not rational, they are not efficient, and they are not balanced.

[vnatale]

Like WB says, the market in the short term is a voting machine and in the long term is a weighing machine. In the long term (10 year+ timeframe) fundamentals are what matters most. But on any timeframe less than that it's purely irrational, inefficient, and speculative at best. It's a bunch of people trying to divine the future. Markets are not as efficient as some pundits like to claim. I mean, if they were truly efficient we wouldn't have a boom/bust cycle like this. In the short to medium term, it's all greed and fear and nothing else. Greed and fear are not rational, they are not efficient, and they are not balanced.

Was it Buffet who said all that or...

"The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine. It responds to factual data not directly, but only as they affect the decisions of buyers and sellers."- Graham and Dodd, Security Analysis. Earnings drive stock prices - so says investing lore. As earnings rise or fall, stock prices move higher or lower by a commensurate amount."

Vinny

[pmward]

Maybe it was Graham I heard it from? Or maybe it was Buffet quoting Graham?

I think part of the problem is that there are more inputs that determine stock price than just earnings. And I think overtime those input variables tend to grow and change. I know you're a baseball fan. So in baseball, the big league pitching has gotten harder and harder to hit every generation. The big league pitching thrown from the markets is the same way. It always gets more and more difficult to hit, and as such what worked in the past isn't likely to work today. For instance, I don't think WB could have done what he did if he started in this day and age. It is very difficult to get an edge these days. And the market absolutely cannot follow logical common sense, or else it becomes too easy to hit and everyone becomes a millionaire. It's always changing and evolving, and finding new ways to fake people out. The market loves nothing more than to periodically find the ways it can catch the most people offsides and create the greatest possible destruction.

[vnatale]

Maybe it was Graham I heard it from? Or maybe it was Buffet quoting Graham?

I think part of the problem is that there are more inputs that determine stock price than just earnings. And I think overtime those input variables tend to grow and change. I know you're a baseball fan. So in baseball, the big league pitching has gotten harder and harder to hit every generation. The big league pitching thrown from the markets is the same way. It always gets more and more difficult to hit, and as such what worked in the past isn't likely to work today. For instance, I don't think WB could have done what he did if he started in this day and age. It is very difficult to get an edge these days. And the market absolutely cannot follow logical common sense, or else it becomes too easy to hit and everyone becomes a millionaire. It's always changing and evolving, and finding new ways to fake people out. The market loves nothing more than to periodically find the ways it can catch the most people offsides and create the greatest possible destruction.

I do believe in the "Random Walk" theory regarding the market and NO ONE in the ENTIRE world can predict what it is going to do the next day. And, I think it has been that way forever. That is why I was convicted 17 years ago that the only way to invest in any equity market was via index funds.

Vinny

[glennds]

I've heard it said that the issue with the equity markets right now is that we all know there is and will be a shock to the earnings of most (nearly all) companies. The problem is we don't know how severe it will be, we don't know how long it will last, we don't know what the government will do to alleviate it. By the latter I mean Fed action or economic stimulus, or both. Maybe industry specific bailouts for those industries fatally hit, and whom our entire country depends upon. So the market is struggling to price the effect of all this. It's like a compass with a needle spinning around looking for north.

China seems to be re-starting it's economy, which is cause for some hope since at least in their case, the episode was finite. Maybe South Korea is right behind. Some countries like Singapore and Taiwan did such a superb job of proactive prevention, that they have kept the virus from even getting a significant foothold. So this shows the virus is not unstoppable or unmanageable. I hope at some point there will be an ability to see some light at the end of the tunnel, and at that point we should see a decrease in heavy volatility swings and we'll be able to start trudging our way up the mountain we just fell off.

It would be a really good time for the US Federal government to be a steady beacon of credibility........

And could Saudi Arabia and Russia have picked a better time to have a boxing match over oil supply?

[vnatale]

I've heard it said that the issue with the equity markets right now is that we all know there is and will be a shock to the earnings of most (nearly all) companies. The problem is we don't know how severe it will be, we don't know how long it will last, we don't know what the government will do to alleviate it. By the latter I mean Fed action or economic stimulus, or both. Maybe industry specific bailouts for those industries fatally hit, and whom our entire country depends upon. So the market is struggling to price the effect of all this. It's like a compass with a needle spinning around looking for north.

China seems to be re-starting it's economy, which is cause for some hope since at least in their case, the episode was finite. Maybe South Korea is right behind. Some countries like Singapore and Taiwan did such a superb job of proactive prevention, that they have kept the virus from even getting a significant foothold. So this shows the virus is not unstoppable or unmanageable. I hope at some point there will be an ability to see some light at the end of the tunnel, and at that point we should see a decrease in heavy volatility swings and we'll be able to start trudging our way up the mountain we just fell off.

It would be a really good time for the US Federal government to be a steady beacon of credibility........

And could Saudi Arabia and Russia have picked a better time to have a boxing match over oil supply?

Now that you mention Russia.

As I was leaving my office on Thursday and discussing all with two coworkers, I said that I'd not heard anything regarding how this was hitting Russia. They also said that they had not. Is there any news out on how this is affecting Russia?

Vinny

[dualstow]

↳ viewtopic.php?f=9&t=10427&p=187952#p187952

[Tortoise]

“In Soviet Russia, virus catch you.”

[Smith1776]

The opportunity that Warren Buffett and his 100 billion+ dollars worth of cash have been waiting for has arrived.

[Cortopassi]

The opportunity that Warren Buffett and his 100 billion+ dollars worth of cash have been waiting for has arrived.

You think we are there already? We have weeks more of this, no??

I look at my accounts and want to rebalance. Am dying to rebalance. Which means it is not time yet. When I never want to invest in stocks again is the time to rebalance. Maybe tomorrow...

Whitehouse having press conference 1/2 hour before market closes today. I suppose he wants to see if he can go 2 for 2 in goosing the market like he did on Friday.

[stuper1]

The opportunity that Warren Buffett and his 100 billion+ dollars worth of cash have been waiting for has arrived.

You think we are there already? We have weeks more of this, no??

I look at my accounts and want to rebalance. Am dying to rebalance. Which means it is not time yet. When I never want to invest in stocks again is the time to rebalance. Maybe tomorrow...

Whitehouse having press conference 1/2 hour before market closes today. I suppose he wants to see if he can go 2 for 2 in goosing the market like he did on Friday.

I'm trying to decide whether to rebalance myself. I'm past one of my rebalance bands anyway, so I think that I might as well rebalance soon rather than waiting until stocks drop more. That way I lock in some of my TLT gains right now and pick up some stocks when they are somewhat on sale. I figure I can always rebalance again if stocks keep dropping more in the coming weeks and months. I guess I'm looking for advice here. Is my plan a good one, or is it better to keep waiting until stock prices level off a bit?

[pmward]

Waiting for prices to level off and panic to subside is a good way to miss the opportunity altogether. Remember, that the stock market starts to react prior to the data actually improving. When we are at the peak of bad data, the stock market will be moving back up already as it would already have sniffed out the peak in advance. If you're afraid to do a full rebalance, you can always do a DCA type rebalance. Instead of going fully back to ideal percentages, go halfway... then you can always go halfway again if the data gets worse and stocks continue to slide. Don't let the opportunity pass you by altogether though trying to pick the absolute bottom. From a dark arts perspective, we are getting very close to that Dec 2018 low support level, and that would be about a 30% total correction. I hope that level holds. If it fails, then we are likely to go to down to the 2016 lows, which would be a 50% correction. Either way, I do not expect this correction to take years to get back to even. Typically, the faster the fall in the correction, the faster the recovery. I am currently intraday above my upper rebalance band in bonds. Stocks are still a hair over their bottom bands. I'm waiting to see how we close to see if I'm going to put the orders in to rebalance today or wait.

[Cortopassi]

I am going to think long and hard about a partial rebalance today. Maybe 33% of a full rebalance. Would be nice to lock in some of the TLT gains, as stuper says.

[pmward]

Yeah, I am putting in the order in my 401k to rebalance tonight as the market has continued to drop and bonds have continued to rally since my last comment. If we have a major reversal near the close I'll cancel it. But as of right now we are on track to close with a rebalance band breached. Also, 2450 is only 100 S&P points above my ideal level to rebalance from a technical perspective, so close enough.

[Cortopassi]

Damn it is tough to pull the trigger on this.