Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Libertarian666
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Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:55 am

What, no screaming about the horrible decline in stocks?
Note: I don't have any stocks, so this is just a public service announcement.  :P
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Jan Van
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Jan Van » Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:13 am

At least TSLA and TWTR are up today, happy with that :-)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:28 am

I bet heavily on the ^VIX today and yesterday. Why, what happened?  ;)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by iwealth » Thu Oct 02, 2014 12:13 pm

3.5% off the all-time highs feels like panic given stocks unrelenting rise. Doom has come! But probably not.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by annieB » Thu Oct 02, 2014 2:45 pm

Make it stop.
Please...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ozzy » Thu Oct 02, 2014 5:07 pm

I've been accumulating IJH (mid-cap index) and IJR (small-cap index) on every dip.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:38 pm

ozzy wrote: I've been accumulating IJH (mid-cap index) and IJR (small-cap index) on every dip.
Smallcaps actually had a nice recovery today.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by iwealth » Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:45 pm

ozzy wrote: I've been accumulating IJH (mid-cap index) and IJR (small-cap index) on every dip.
Always wondered how dip-buyers define a "dip" and where the money comes from to buy "every dip."
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ozzy » Fri Oct 03, 2014 3:03 pm

iwealth - For me a "dip" means a new recent low.  My money comes from the surplus of my paychecks.  And I do the same for IAU and TLT.  I buy the lagging asset when its "On Sale".
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Pointedstick » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:41 pm

Ouch, I feel sorry for people heavy in stocks today.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:48 pm

Pointedstick wrote: Ouch, I feel sorry for people heavy in stocks today.
Me too... as long as they haven't heard and dismissed the notion of having some gold as a counterweight.  :P
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pugchief » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:50 pm

Interestingly, the gold miners got hammered today even though gold was up.
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Libertarian666
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:55 pm

pugchief wrote: Interestingly, the gold miners got hammered today even though gold was up.
Gold stocks are stocks. Gold is gold. They aren't the same.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:06 pm

Saw this and had to check...wow.  What happened today?

CNN seems to like calendar-based explanations of stock market performance dips.  Last month it was "September is bad for stocks".  Before that it was "sell in May", then "summer is bad for stocks".  Now it's "October is scary for stocks."  I guess that's what you write when you want to sound smart but don't have anything worthwhile to say.

Note to all those who were frantic to avoid buying bonds in a recent thread:  SEE????  TLT went up more today than the stock market went down.  Gold went down a bit, so PP is probably near flat for the day.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Reub » Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:13 pm

Actually GLD and IAU were up a little, making the day positive despite massive stock market losses. :)

Now GTU was another story! :(
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by iwealth » Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:20 pm

sophie wrote: CNN seems to like calendar-based explanations of stock market performance dips.  Last month it was "September is bad for stocks".  Before that it was "sell in May", then "summer is bad for stocks".  Now it's "October is scary for stocks."  I guess that's what you write when you want to sound smart but don't have anything worthwhile to say.
"Sell in May and go away" is a widely used investing strategy. You exit the market in May and come back in November. It actually backtests quite well.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:25 pm

Reub wrote: Actually GLD and IAU were up a little, making the day positive despite massive stock market losses. :)

Now GTU was another story! :(
Good for me if that keeps up, as I'm planning to trade physical gold in my retirement account for GTU outside.  ;D
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Reub » Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:04 pm

What I meant was that GTU was down today while GLD and IAU were up, once again under performing.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dragoncar » Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:15 am

Reub wrote: What I meant was that GTU was down today while GLD and IAU were up, once again under performing.
Is there a financial reason GTU is so low?  I mean like increased risk in the underlying company itself?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by stuper1 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:17 pm

For every day that GTU underperforms, there seems to be another day that it overperforms compared to GLD.  Over the long-term, the performance seems to be quite similar.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:45 pm

GTU has a lag compared to the gold index price.  It runs at a discount when few people are buying (relative to sellers), and at a premium when there is high demand for gold.  So it does not necessarily track gold perfectly on a day to day basis.

A lot of people here (including me) are buying it even in retirement accounts because of the current discount of 7%.  If gold rises and that discount goes to zero (or even a premium), you'll get an extra 7% bump added to your winnings.
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Libertarian666
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:23 pm

sophie wrote: GTU has a lag compared to the gold index price.  It runs at a discount when few people are buying (relative to sellers), and at a premium when there is high demand for gold.  So it does not necessarily track gold perfectly on a day to day basis.

A lot of people here (including me) are buying it even in retirement accounts because of the current discount of 7%.  If gold rises and that discount goes to zero (or even a premium), you'll get an extra 7% bump added to your winnings.
Right, and furthermore the discount can't grow indefinitely because there is some mechanism for cashing out if it does. They actually called me to discuss that but I was on a very important call and couldn't pick up. I need to call them back about how that works...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by stuper1 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:20 pm

Here's a comparison of GTU and GLD.  It seems to me that GTU is tracking GLD pretty well.

[img width=500]http://i60.tinypic.com/264n8yo.jpg[/img]
Last edited by stuper1 on Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:40 pm

Stuper1, why are you using Internet Exploder!?! ;)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:35 pm

The last release or two of IE have, somewhat surprisingly, been pretty good.
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