Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

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Reub
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Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by Reub » Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:58 pm

"So, the conundrum is complete. Stock indices march to all-time highs while economic fundamentals fall apart. The two will be reconciled either with a spectacular turnaround in growth or a spectacular collapse in stock prices. The problem is that a turnaround in growth can only come from structural reform, not money printing. Structural reform is the job of the White House and Congress, not the Federal Reserve. Since the White House and Congress are barely speaking, no help should be expected from that direction. Therefore a stock market collapse is almost inevitable and is probably coming soon."

http://www.darientimes.com/33772/rickar ... ity-check/

Might this be a good time to rebalance one's portfolio?
Last edited by Reub on Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
barrett
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by barrett » Sat Aug 09, 2014 11:34 am

I find it curious that this Rickards' article has not generated any comments yet on this forum. Does he just have too much invested in the various scenarios he lays out to be taken (too) seriously? I read Currency Wars and it actually got me interested in physical gold which in turn led me to the PP. I have not read his latest book but I did watch a couple of online interviews with him last night. While he comes off as extremely smart, it's my impression that he doesn't really seem to have much angst about the financial ruin he sees coming. For example, he said he was "excited" to see Currency Wars prominently displayed in airports around the world. Hmm. Any thoughts? Thanks.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by dualstow » Sat Aug 09, 2014 12:09 pm

barrett wrote: I find it curious that this Rickards' article has not generated any comments yet on this forum.
Predictions are always interesting, but when I see a dearth of comments I always attribute it (wrongly or rightly) to people just being content with the pp plan.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by KevinW » Sat Aug 09, 2014 12:42 pm

Yeah, part of the PP philosophy is to ignore predictions like this. In fact I usually go out of my way to avoid thinking about them.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:57 pm

"Soon"...I want a firm date else the prediction is useless. Actually, the guess is useless either way. A 50% decline in equities has a 12.5% impact on the portfolio. I am confident that gold and treasuries will respond accordingly. If they don't, I have an extra 10% allocated to cash to dampen volatility even further.

Moreover, I feel more comfortable re-balancing into equities over any other asset class (right or wrong). Stocks are the main returns driver for the portfolio. If you are close to a re-balancing band then consider allocating funds to lagging assets. Else there is really nothing else to do but wait and watch.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by Kshartle » Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:26 pm

buddtholomew wrote: "Soon"...I want a firm date else the prediction is useless. Actually, the guess is useless either way. A 50% decline in equities has a 12.5% impact on the portfolio. I am confident that gold and treasuries will respond accordingly. If they don't, I have an extra 10% allocated to cash to dampen volatility even further.
If the stock market fell by 50% and you were only down 12.5%, you would be in an incredible position to go all-in on stocks and reap huge rewards for years for preserving your wealth during the collapse.....if you were willing to seize the opportunity.

A stock market collapse is no risk to the PP. The small nominal loss would be offset by a gain to the purchasing power of the dollar most likely. It would also be short lived I think.

A stock market collapse is a big risk to a Boglehead. Brutal inflation is the major risk to the PP. I know I know, 25% gold.......well......50% fixed dollars. Your nominal gain won't look that good once you pay taxes on it and factor in the purchasing power loss.

I'm not a PPer at the moment. If I were, I would welcome a stock market collapse. 
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by Reub » Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:01 pm

What exactly are you Kshartle?
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon Aug 11, 2014 12:01 am

barrett wrote: I find it curious that this Rickards' article has not generated any comments yet on this forum. Does he just have too much invested in the various scenarios he lays out to be taken (too) seriously? I read Currency Wars and it actually got me interested in physical gold which in turn led me to the PP. I have not read his latest book but I did watch a couple of online interviews with him last night. While he comes off as extremely smart, it's my impression that he doesn't really seem to have much angst about the financial ruin he sees coming. For example, he said he was "excited" to see Currency Wars prominently displayed in airports around the world. Hmm. Any thoughts? Thanks.
i.ve seen many of his media appearances...he.s a lawyer and analyst...very rational and dispassionate. i salute him for shaing w the public his work
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by barrett » Mon Aug 11, 2014 1:08 pm

Interesting also that as much as he likes gold, Rickards only advocates that his "clients" have 10% of their investable assets in gold if they are "conservative" and 20% if they are "more aggressive." Both are low by PP standards. He is big on owning physical gold and not storing it at a bank safe deposit box.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon Aug 11, 2014 1:14 pm

other portfolios i.ve heard him suggest are (if memory serves):


this one i seem to recall he said is how dynastic wealth in europe has been passed down thru the centuries
-1/3 gold
-1/3 land
-1/3 fine art




-1/4 gold
-1/4 land
-1/4 cash
-1/4 stocks
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by barrett » Mon Aug 11, 2014 1:26 pm

Right now he likes 1) Undeveloped land 2) Cash 3) Gold 4) Fine art 5) Alternatives. Not sure what that last category entails. Maybe I have to buy the book to find that out. Interesting that he likes cash so much inasmuch as he has predicted the collapse of the dollar.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon Aug 11, 2014 1:43 pm

alternatives might be water development...I think he has interests in both water and fine art funds.

He explains cash gives "optionality"...basically why we hold it in the PP today.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:23 am

Well, I'm revisiting this topic because while the market could still blow up, I think it's safe to say that "soon" has passed.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by LC475 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 9:26 am

I love things that are "Inevitable."

Even better, to compound arrogance with meaninglessness: "Almost inevitable"!

And, as has been pointed out, let's add uselessness to the list with: "Soon"!

A perfect recipe.  Thank you, Mr. Rickards.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by sophie » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:21 am

Love predictions like this.  This one means that the stock market is going go up like gangbusters in 2015. 

What conditions have changed to make him think that the market will crash?  Everything he's complaining about has been the case for years now, except that business is poor...which is not true.  Of course, businesses are not exactly passing on their profits to their employees, but there are other reasons for that - primarily immigration, which is constantly flooding the market with cheap labor.

I also wonder if the increase in part time workers and in people who have opted out of the work force isn't due in part to the early retirement movement, and perhaps even an increase in self-employment & small business facilitated by Obamacare - combined with stagnant wages so that full time employment is becoming relatively less attractive.  Taking stock of my immediate family, I'm the only one of four siblings with a full time job.  One sister is a stay at home mom, another is an ER physician who works part time, and my brother is an architect who owns his own business and supplements with part time work at a design firm.  So I guess we exemplify Mr. Rickard's doom & gloom scenario, except that everyone is in fact happy with their situation and living a healthy upper middle class lifestyle.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:35 pm

barrett wrote: I find it curious that this Rickards' article has not generated any comments yet on this forum. Does he just have too much invested in the various scenarios he lays out to be taken (too) seriously? I read Currency Wars and it actually got me interested in physical gold which in turn led me to the PP. I have not read his latest book but I did watch a couple of online interviews with him last night. While he comes off as extremely smart, it's my impression that he doesn't really seem to have much angst about the financial ruin he sees coming. For example, he said he was "excited" to see Currency Wars prominently displayed in airports around the world. Hmm. Any thoughts? Thanks.
He's just another doom porner looking to cash in.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:38 pm

murphy_p_t wrote: i.ve seen many of his media appearances...he.s a lawyer and analyst...very rational and dispassionate. i salute him for shaing w the public his work
He's also a right-wing tinfoil kook.  A broken clock is right twice a day, 60 times a month and and 730.5 times a year.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:40 pm

sophie wrote: So I guess we exemplify Mr. Rickard's doom & gloom scenario, except that everyone is in fact happy with their situation and living a healthy upper middle class lifestyle.
How do they manage to live an upper middle class lifestyle only working part-time in NYC?  Seems like an oxymoron to me.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by sophie » Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:28 pm

My sisters' husbands both work full time.  The point is, a lot of people not working full time does not necessarily mean that the business climate is poor, and still less that the stock market is about to crash.
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by Reub » Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:53 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
murphy_p_t wrote: i.ve seen many of his media appearances...he.s a lawyer and analyst...very rational and dispassionate. i salute him for shaing w the public his work
He's also a right-wing tinfoil kook.  A broken clock is right twice a day, 60 times a month and and 730.5 times a year.
Hey, MG! That doesn't make us bad people, does it?
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:02 pm

Reub wrote: Hey, MG! That doesn't make us bad people, does it?
Well.... umm.....  :o
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Re: Jim Rickards Says Stock Market Collapse Inevitable And Probably Coming Soon

Post by hazlitt777 » Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:41 pm

I like James Rickards.  He seems very calm and thoughtful.  Also, his mantra is to be diversified.  I believe he does say no more than 20% in gold, which I disagree with.  But he is consistent and doesn't promote market timing...quite the contrary.
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