Investment trusts

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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stone
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Investment trusts

Post by stone »

I started an approximate PP less than a year ago without having seen this site and only having second hand hearsay about the priciple of it rather than reading any Harry Browne stuff ::).
From this site I see that the stock portion ought to be index tracker ETFs. I inadvertantly set mine up with the stock portion being an equal weight between three all stock investment trusts (are they called closed end funds in the US?). However I still have trouble shaking off what drove me to do that. My reasoning was that I thought investment trusts don't need to buy and sell stocks to keep the NAV in line with the share price. They just let the share price float so holders of investment trusts don't end up paying for the costs that an ETF suffers at times of net inflows or outflows. The large developed world index ETFs have behaved well to date but in the 2008 crisis the ishares emerging market ETF totally weirded out in terms of discount/premium to NAV. In the next crises to come, couldn't we see other ETFs behaving in a similar erroneous way? In a stock crash, an investment trust might get a big discount to NAV but wouldn't that benefit a PP rebalance? I'd hate to rebalance into an ETF that had a one day 20% premium to NAV  spike. Keeping track of an oscillating primium to NAV in an ETF at a PP rebalance sounds like a nightmare. I also like the fact that investment trusts are almost indestructable. They get big discounts when unpopular but I don't think that is such an issue in a PP unlike ETFs that can end up being wound down. Some investment trust are more than 100 years old. Am I right in believing that whilst investment trusts actually own the shares unencumbered; ETFs gain much of their fees from security lending in exotic rehypothecation schemes and that in the advent of Barclays doing a Lehmans, an ishares ETF would be far more perilous than a BlackRock investment trust? The huge size of the index trackers also gave me concern. They are so big that whenever a company enters or exits an index or issues or buys back shares, an army of front running traders milks the index rebalancing.
The three investment trusts I used were BlackRock Smaller Companies (small cap UK), City of London (dividend UK) and Templeton Emerging Markets. I choose them because they seemed very different from each other so I hoped that whenever irrational exuberance was overvaluing one it would be less likely to be afflicting the others. I find it hard to get my head around how it is thought so bad to seek rebalancing gains between say large and small cap stocks but rebalancing between say gold and LTT is behind so much of the PP benefit. If the efficient market hypothesis made any sense then the PP would not work. The efficient market PP would be an index fund holding a zoo of asset classes with the value of the stock, farmland, fine art, bond etc holdings billowing in line with current investor sentiment.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by magneto »

I too am a UK investor holding many Investment Trusts (closed end funds).  Made the transition from individual equities, to Investment Trusts to reduce work load, and have since begun to shift to ETFs that track UK and World markets.  Comparing the performance at the end of last year found ITs substantially outperformed ETFs.  This may be an anomaly due to leverage in a rising market, or the benefit of active managers.  It raises the old question can a thinking brain outperform the markets.

Agree that a closed fund has the advantage of not having to sell stocks in a distressed market as investors rush for the exit, and when trading at a discount the underlying stocks can then be bought at an attractive price.

With ETFs have stuck to main providers such as iShares and dbX, although the latter is a synthetic using financial instruments to track the market concerned which does raise concerns.  iShares generally holds the individual stocks for most main markets.

Whether we will shift totally to ETFs I don't know.  If so it will be a gradual process.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by Storm »

What type of expense ratio do these trusts have?  I believe VTI only has 0.07%.  Since most PP adherents buy and hold our equity ETF/funds for a long time, we don't really care about the day to day NAV variability, as long as the fund tracks the gains in the market accurately we will be fine in the end.
Last edited by Storm on Sat Jun 25, 2011 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by stone »

Storm, don't you get triggered to rebalance into stocks just at the nadir of a stock crash? Doesn't it makes all the difference then if you buy stocks at a 20% discount via an investment trust rather than at a 20% premium in an ETF that is going haywire due to extreme short term volatility. It would take years before the 0.3% expense ratio of an investment trust rather than the 0.07% expense ratio of the ETF dented that. Anyway don't expense ratios cover a multitude of sins? Comparing the tracking error of the index ETF against the expense ratio of the investment trust would make more sense to me.

Magneto, although ishares ETFs use physical replication via owning the shares, I thought they lend the shares out to gain fees (I guess its a kind of fractional reserve banking of shares). Where does that leave things if 2008 gets outdone big time in 2012 or whatever?
With regard to the index getting outdone by active management, remember investment trust managers have a much easier job than the typical active manager because of the unusual closed end structure. The index ETF is tracking lots of compromised managers including the goverment needing to hold 80% stakes of zombie banks :)
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by Storm »

Stone, the PP way of rebalancing is to do it once a year if you have reached 15% or 35% bands, not as a response to extreme market events.  I see your point that if you were to rebalance during a heavy market selloff you might end up getting dinged as the ETF might not reflect completely accurately the underlying equities.

So, given that we are not attempting to time the market in any way, and usually buy and hold our equity portfolios for periods of at least 1 year minimum, saving 0.23% in expense ratios gave us that more in annual returns.

I don't see any downside, but I do see a lot of downside in having a high expense ratio portfolio.  0.3% is not that high, to be honest, but it's much higher than a fund that tracks an equity index should be.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by magneto »

Have been muliing over another issue comparing ETFs and ITs for the stocks allocation.

The issue is that of diversification of providers.  To switch from our present mix of ETFs and ITs, and move to ETFs only, would leave Blackrock's iShares holding a very large proportion of the portfolio assets.  Is that prudent?

With the present ITs held, some sixteen separate companies are holding the stock allocation.  Taking account of this diversfication issue, together with the historic outperformance of the ITs, am now leaning more towards building up further the ITs, and reducing the amount held in ETFs.

Any views on provider diversification?  Do others have similar concerns?
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by KevinW »

magneto wrote: To switch from our present mix of ETFs and ITs, and move to ETFs only, would leave Blackrock's iShares holding a very large proportion of the portfolio assets.  Is that prudent?
IMO the odds of losing money through some kind of malfeasance by a major ETF issuer such as iShares is so remote that it isn't worth worrying about.  There are too many transparency measures, market pressures, and regulations preventing that from happening.  That being said, in principle I never like to have all my eggs in one basket.  So I'd never let 100% of my PP be in ETFs from the same issuer.  Luckily this is a non-issue as several non-iShares issuers have suitable stock, cash, and gold ETFs.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by stone »

Kevin W, I think many many people said exactly the same thing about Lehmans bonds in 2007.  Even on BBC news there have been mentions that in the event of a mass sell off, physically replicating ETFs with heavy security lending involvement (such as ishares) would be unable to maintain the NAV of the ETF. ETFs seem scarilly like fractional reserve banks were in the "free banking" Jeffersonian era.  I don't see how you can rule out a very extended period of market turmoil as bad as late 2008 and it isn't obvious to me that ETFs would stand up to such a stress test. What seems crazy to me is that people are so careful about only have allocated gold or even owning gold coins and yet are so blase about stock "ownership".

A googling came up with what I pasted below.

For the biggest fund managers in the indexing and ETF business - BGI, Vanguard, State Street, Northern Trust - securities lending revenues are a significant contributor to overall profits.

However a number of big problems have arisen for the securities lending business in recent months: first, concerns about possible default by stock borrowers have increased; second, some significant losses have occurred in cash reinvestment programmes (where managers reinvest the cash collateral received in exchange for the stock loaned); third, regulatory restrictions on short-selling have caused a dramatic slowdown or even a stop to lending in certain areas of the market.

IndexUniverse.eu surveyed a number of leading European ETF providers and posed them questions about their securities lending activities. The managers that have participated in the survey are iShares, Lyxor, db x-trackers, easyETF, XACT, ETFLab and ETF Securities. BBVA, the Spanish ETF provider, explained that it had only in specie ETFs, and did not lend its ETFs' securities.

All answers refer to European-domiciled ETFs only.

1) Of the ETFs you manage, how many are involved in securities lending?

iShares - From our Dublin product range 30 iShares ETFs are currently involved in securities lending. In addition, all 81 iShares ETFs from our Munich product range are involved in securities lending.
Lyxor - We do not lend out the underlying collateral in the funds (IU note - Lyxor's ETFs are all swap-based)
db x-trackers - There is no lending of the assets of any of the db x-trackers ETFs (IU note - db x-trackers' ETFs are all swap-based). However, with swap-based ETFs, it is possible to generate lending revenues which can be passed on in the performance of the ETF to offset the impact of management fees. The relevant trading desk at DB will invest in the underlying index components to hedge its exposure under the swap. These stocks form part of the DB's lending pool and any revenues generated can be passed on to the ETF as an enhancement. The difference between this approach and traditional stock lending at the fund level is that there is no borrower default risk for the ETF. These risks are faced by DB only and there can be no negative impact on the performance of the swap.
easyETF - All our fully-replicated ETFs (21/58 ETFs) use securities lending. Those of our synthetically-managed (swap-based) ETFs which hold equities as collateral also have lending transactions.
XACT - 2 out of 11 ETFs use securities lending
ETFLab - All our 10 ETFs use securities lending to improve performance
ETF Securities - currently our swap-based ETFs do not engage in securities lending 
IU comment - Note that, although securities lending is primarily the domain of in specie ETFs (which fully or partially replicate the underlying index), both db x-trackers and EasyETF undertake lending from within the collateral basket used to back their swap-based ETFs. Lyxor and ETF Securities, on the other hand, do not do so for their swap-based ETFs.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by stone »

In the post above I should have written "would be unable to avoid catastrophic traking error" not "would be unable to maintain the NAV of the ETF". I'm not asking the ETFs to never loose value though that would be nice :).
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by AdamA »

stone wrote: In the post above I should have written "would be unable to avoid catastrophic traking error" not "would be unable to maintain the NAV of the ETF". I'm not asking the ETFs to never loose value though that would be nice :).
I tend to agree with you, Stone.  

HB's rule number 9:  "Don't ever do anything you don't understand."  I don't completely understand ETFs and how they are structured.  I could definitely see tracking error becoming an issue in extreme circumstances.  

It's not that hard to buy gold coins, Treasury bills/bonds (directly), or stock index mutual funds, all of which have been tested a bit more in trying times than ETFs.  I think an over reliance on ETFs could potentially burn some PP investors in the future.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by stone »

Adam, the problem with open ended mutual funds is that they have to keep buying and selling shares whenever there are net redemptions or inflows. That gets preyed upon by front running traders as well as just the usual transaction costs.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by AdamA »

stone wrote: Adam, the problem with open ended mutual funds is that they have to keep buying and selling shares whenever there are net redemptions or inflows. That gets preyed upon by front running traders as well as just the usual transaction costs.
Has this been a problem for the larger funds (like VFINX, etc) in the past (ie, 2008)?
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by stone »

Adam, I just googled and saw this discussion about front running Vanguard funds:

w.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1009469&sid=b03921cfb94785bba64e88c044242781

I get the impression that it is extremely hard to buy or sell billions of dollars worth of shares (as Vanguard has too) without the market reacting and making the most of the situation. It is especially hard when your buying and selling is totally predictable.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by magneto »

Since the transfer of iShares management from Barclays to Blackrock have been slightly uneasy about security of ETF funds.

Had a letter today from Blackrock (enclosing info on an IT), which included the sentence :-

'We act always as a fiduciary for our clients, never trading as a principal on our own behalf'.

Knowing very little about Blackrock I found this reassuring, certainly compared to Barclays which trades very actively on it's own behalf.

Nevertheless IMHO it remains good practice to diversify fund managers.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by stone »

Magneto, the aspect of etfs that I worry most about is securities lending:-
http://www.blackrock.co.uk/content/grou ... 099126.pdf -

They say that they do simulations that reassure them that counter-parties will always be able to return the loaned securities but I'm sure plenty of simulations were done that "proved" that AIG credit default swaps were a totally safe free lunch etc etc. The table seems to suggest that at any one time half the securities are on loan from some etfs. Am I understanding it right?
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by magneto »

Can't get the link to work.

Any ideas?
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by stone »

Sorry about the link not working. Googling "blackrock securities lending" gets to the same stuff. Hope that works.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by magneto »

Thanks Stone, found the page. 

Think you are correct in your understanding.

The arguments Blackrock put forward for the lending seem very weak. 

See they allow themselves to lend up to 95% of a funds NAV!!!

Particularly concerned that at present 55% of UK Gilts are lent out.  What one imagines as a very safe investment in UK Gilts starts to look uneccesarily complex and not solid.  y.

All the business about taking collateral greater than the loan, through a third party, makes supposedly straightforward funds far more complex than at first supposed.  Hardly plain vanilla.

Thanks and Regards

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Re: Investment trusts

Post by stone »

magneto, with gilts, I just buy the bond itself. It doesn't seem a different process buy the gilt itself than to buy an ETF so I thought why not keep it simple. What perplexes me is that people are so vigilant about gold ETFs only having allocated gold and yet don't seem to care about lending from other ETF assets at all.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by magneto »

Since our above exchanges concerning stock lending by ETFs, keep coming across articles on the same theme.

Latest in IC 09SE11 highlights stock lending is a common and legal practice within many unit trusts, hedge funds, pension funds and 'physical ETFs' with up to 100% being lent out.  Have noted elsewhere that even Vanguard indulge in the practice.

The IC article points out that 66% of the gross income derived was retained by the fund after fees.  So, although investors potentially bear all the risk, they are getting only two-thirds of the benefits.

It would appear Investment Trusts (closed end funds) remain the way to go if one is concerned about counterparty risk. 

Have yet to come across any examples of ITs lending out stock.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by murphy_p_t »

magneto wrote: Have noted elsewhere that even Vanguard indulge in the practice.

can you give more details? i was checking on this for VTI & EDV...seems they reserve the right to do this. for EDV, they aren't doing it (as of Aug 2011)...for VTI, its quite limited % of total assetts
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by magneto »

Don't have any details.  Think the statement about Vanguard was seen on BH.  Remember being very surprised.

iShares are now clearly stating up front on their website about the lending, but not the amount lent out, so Vanguard are seemingly being more open.
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Re: Investment trusts

Post by magneto »

For some information google Vanguard Securities Lending e.g.


moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/irrational.../vanguard.../3753/
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