Dow sentiment poll

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Will Dow be 25,000 again before it hits 40,000?

Yes
1
13%
No
7
88%
 
Total votes: 8
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I Shrugged
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Dow sentiment poll

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:02 pm

Will the Dow see 25,000 again before it hits 40,000?
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I Shrugged
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Re: Dow sentiment poll

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:05 am

Bump for more votes.
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dualstow
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Re: Dow sentiment poll

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:43 pm

I don’t know, Shrugged, but I’d like to give credit where credit is due, to pmward.

Why I think 2021 will be a blockbuster year for stocks
This is something that keeps coming to mind lately, and I don’t see a lot of people talking about these points. So here is why I think 2021 will be a blockbuster year for stocks, with S&P going to 4,000+.
- Nov 11th, 2020 by pmward

Today is 10-20-2021 and the S&P is 4,530


See his reasons why at https://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/v ... 03#p211975
The Beatles started it - they did it the best, and everyone who came after them were a kind of Beatles tribute band. ~ Kurt Cobain
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Vil
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Re: Dow sentiment poll

Post by Vil » Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:22 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:43 pm
- Nov 11th, 2020 by pmward
See his reasons why at https://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/v ... 03#p211975
I miss this guy to be honest. He was having broad helicopter view on many financial processes, while on the other hand very good knowledge of the technical aspects of trading (have attended several courses he suggested)... Bad that he left (due to Anti-Trumpism if I recall).

Anyway. Couple of months ago, poll might've been - will dualstow be absent from the forum for a long time, before he comes back and reach 12K posts ;D
Cheers.
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Re: Dow sentiment poll

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Oct 22, 2021 3:30 pm

So far I’m the lone bear in the poll.

I think the universal belief in the rising stock market is a sign.
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Re: Dow sentiment poll

Post by dualstow » Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:10 pm

I missed *you*, Vil. Never mind my 12K posts of filler and fluff. O0
I Shrugged wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 3:30 pm
So far I’m the lone bear in the poll.

I think the universal belief in the rising stock market is a sign.
I’m expecting a good winter at least, a good finish to the year. Nobody knows nothin’. (But if pmward did some prognosticating for 2022, I think I’d pay attention, myself).

I am not going to do any drastic reduction in stocks. If they crash, they crash.
The Beatles started it - they did it the best, and everyone who came after them were a kind of Beatles tribute band. ~ Kurt Cobain
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Re: Dow sentiment poll

Post by jalanlong » Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:30 pm

I may be perpetually scared of stocks crashing but the amount of younger people I see online who say "I am going to put all of my money in S&P 500 Index fund and retire in 10 years" tells me that maybe we have reached a peak of some sort. I would feel better with a crash that weeded out some of these easy money types. But I also know that a bad enough crash will start the calls for more "regulation" among the Elizabeth Warrens of the world.

I am of the opinion that some day (maybe in my lifetime, maybe not) there will be a crash bad enough that the government will take over 401k plans. They will say you cannot trust the greedy bankers to protect you in your golden years, you need the safety of government guaranteed retirement. That will gain a lot of support after a crash where people lose 50% of their 401k money. Plus it is an easy way to prop up social security for a little while longer.
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Re: Dow sentiment poll

Post by jalanlong » Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:03 am

This last year has really scared me about putting much of my money in stocks going forward. As I have posted here before, I have always toyed with the idea of just investing the "old fashioned" way and putting some money into a basket of safe, dividend paying stocks like my parents or grandparents would have done. Stocks like JNJ or 3M. And then held them until death us did part.

However, I feel like governments around the world have gotten even more bold and unpredictable and that does not bode well for companies going forward. It is hard enough to have to analyze a company's balance sheet, competition and moat when looking at holding it for 20+ years. But then throw in the fact that you never know what politicians will do. They might decide just to shut your business down due to no reasoning or rationale like gyms or restaurants last year. They may decide that you cannot hire anyone who is not vaccinated. They may decide that you need to pay your workers $20 an hour even if you cannot afford it. Heck, they may just shut down a pipeline between the US and Canada!!

All of that to say that my anti-government leanings are starting to bleed over into how I plan my financial future. I feel like the last year or so has shown that politicians have no qualms about doing whatever they want to do and it doesn't have to have any reasoning or logic behind it. I don't know how you can run a business with that scenario always hovering over you nor how you can expect that any business will remain profitable when the rules can be changed in a second with a presidential mandate.
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Re: Dow sentiment poll

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:12 am

jalanlong wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:03 am
This last year has really scared me about putting much of my money in stocks going forward. As I have posted here before, I have always toyed with the idea of just investing the "old fashioned" way and putting some money into a basket of safe, dividend paying stocks like my parents or grandparents would have done. Stocks like JNJ or 3M. And then held them until death us did part.

However, I feel like governments around the world have gotten even more bold and unpredictable and that does not bode well for companies going forward. It is hard enough to have to analyze a company's balance sheet, competition and moat when looking at holding it for 20+ years. But then throw in the fact that you never know what politicians will do. They might decide just to shut your business down due to no reasoning or rationale like gyms or restaurants last year. They may decide that you cannot hire anyone who is not vaccinated. They may decide that you need to pay your workers $20 an hour even if you cannot afford it. Heck, they may just shut down a pipeline between the US and Canada!!

All of that to say that my anti-government leanings are starting to bleed over into how I plan my financial future. I feel like the last year or so has shown that politicians have no qualms about doing whatever they want to do and it doesn't have to have any reasoning or logic behind it. I don't know how you can run a business with that scenario always hovering over you nor how you can expect that any business will remain profitable when the rules can be changed in a second with a presidential mandate.
At least you aware that your political feelings are affecting your financial planning. You can't ignore them, but you can try to choose investments which are politically agnostic. If only we knew of such a portfolio plan..... ;)
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Re: Dow sentiment poll

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:24 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:12 am

At least you aware that your political feelings are affecting your financial planning. You can't ignore them, but you can try to choose investments which are politically agnostic. If only we knew of such a portfolio plan..... ;)
Amen O0
The Beatles started it - they did it the best, and everyone who came after them were a kind of Beatles tribute band. ~ Kurt Cobain
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