Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed May 13, 2020 8:48 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:01 pm
Funny, I was glued to SPY during that time as well and noticed a couple attempts to breach and hold below that 279 number. Low was 278.96, Close 281.60.

Been watching GDX for a good entry again after 35.20 sale.
Yep, important support levels like $279.13 rarely give way easily. The best chance the bears have to get and hold below there is to try to gap below it tomorrow morning. We will have to wait and see what happens. If they starts closing some candles below $279.13 then the bears are actually scoring some points and doing some real technical damage, something they have been completely unable to do since March 23.
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Vil
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Thu May 14, 2020 4:46 am

pmward wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 9:26 am
Double top's do not exist until they set a lower low.
Yup, I am bit too quick and a bit of looking ahead (which obviously is my mind drawing dragons in the air), indeed crossing of the confirmation line is pending... Have struggled with some reversion trades in the past due to that (entering too early), promise I will not do that in the future ;D

We had a nice -2.xx% gap in EU, has gained a bit since then but still it smells a negative day. Let's see, though its nice to see again the pros going against the prevailing trend shortly after market opening and betting against ..
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Thu May 14, 2020 8:44 am

pmward wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:48 pm
Yep, important support levels like $279.13 rarely give way easily.
Its 278.34 now, listening to L'Inverno / Le quattro stagioni (Vivaldi) - that makes the moment even more dramatic ahahah
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu May 14, 2020 10:12 am

Vil wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 8:44 am
pmward wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:48 pm
Yep, important support levels like $279.13 rarely give way easily.
Its 278.34 now, listening to L'Inverno / Le quattro stagioni (Vivaldi) - that makes the moment even more dramatic ahahah
Yep the bears not surprisingly did the gap thing I mentioned last night. They even got an hourly close below $279.13 which really does weaken that level a bit. But so far the bulls have pulled us back above now, and are going back for that next important $181 level. Watch how it handles that $181. Usually the market does one of two things in this scenario. It either goes up close to $181 and then just hangs around doing nothing, this is a bull flag which basically is building energy to break back above $181 which would put the ball back in the bulls court and set the stage for a late afternoon rescue rally. Or it goes up to $181 and quickly turns back around and goes back down, which keeps the ball in the bears hand and sets up yet another test of that now weakened $279.13 level into the close. The hourly chart is very important right here.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon May 18, 2020 12:49 pm

Maybe it won't last but my losses are rapidly evaporating.

I have no regrets about not panic-selling.
”My option is to displace the mayor of New York City and bring in the National Guard -- as the governor, in a state of emergency -- and basically take over the mayor's job," Cuomo said. He quickly added that, "I don't think we are at that point,"
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by doodle » Sun May 31, 2020 11:41 pm

The ability of the stock market to shake off bad news is truly incredible. Pandemic, 20 percent unemployment, Chinese trade wars, race riots...nothing can seem to keep it down.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by technovelist » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:56 am

doodle wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:41 pm
The ability of the stock market to shake off bad news is truly incredible. Pandemic, 20 percent unemployment, Chinese trade wars, race riots...nothing can seem to keep it down.
Yes, isn't it amazing what unlimited money printing can do for the stock market?
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:34 am

doodle wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:41 pm
The ability of the stock market to shake off bad news is truly incredible. Pandemic, 20 percent unemployment, Chinese trade wars, race riots...nothing can seem to keep it down.
Bad news = liquidity. Liquidity = stock market going up. Stock market going up = good news. Therefore, bad news = good news.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by doodle » Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:23 am

Liquidity could flow into any asset. This doesn't make any sense to me. Practically back at pre corona virus levels but world looks completely different.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:59 am

doodle wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:23 am
Liquidity could flow into any asset. This doesn't make any sense to me. Practically back at pre corona virus levels but world looks completely different.
You need to accept the fact that the economy and fundamentals do not move the stock market. I've been saying this on this board for 2 years now (and been proven right time and again) and still nobody gets it. If the economy and fundamentals moved markets, the market would be way down right now. The day you can accept this fact is the day you finally will be free to start to understand what really does move markets, and that will be the day that you will start being on the right side of the trades instead of always on the wrong side.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by doodle » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:06 pm

If it's emotion that moves markets then I guess the concept of trading is almost entirely a crapshoot...unless there is some other mysterious predictable force at work.

I guess the better question is...where is all the optimism coming from? I see no bright light on the horizon.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:22 pm

doodle wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:06 pm
If it's emotion that moves markets then I guess the concept of trading is almost entirely a crapshoot...unless there is some other mysterious predictable force at work
Emotions show up on a chart. It's not a crapshoot. If people are greedy today, odds are they are going to be greedy tomorrow. If people are fearful today, odds are they will be fearful tomorrow. Nobody can every make a 100% bet, but you can find bets that are higher probability than others, and if you manage your risk properly and don't do anything dumb you can profit greatly on the whole.

Or you can just hold something like a PP and stop speculating on what could/should happen, and just let the market do whatever it's going to do.
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