Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:23 am

Yeah, it looks like we got at least a bit more life. Today confirms a false break down of the key 2880 level. It makes no fundamental sense to me. Economic data weakening, earnings have been very poor this quarter, all kinds of macro headwinds, trade war, etc yet stocks are refusing to go down. Makes me wonder if there is some credence to Brent Johnson's theory that U.S. stocks will rally, not because things are good, but because things are bad. We will see, we do have that ominous Sept/Oct timeframe just around the corner. Will be interesting to see how it goes. Glad I'm in a GB at this point, as nothing makes much sense fundamentally right now. It's nice to be an observer this time around, with no money being bet one way or the other.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:49 pm

It is nuts.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:34 pm

Stocks dump yesterday... I made $4000
Stocks soar today... I made $1400

Yessssss! I think I stumbled by sheer luck into the perfect portfolio for the present day. It's really odd! How is it doing this?

It's purely a result of getting stopped-out of equities and being too chickenshlt to jump back in, instead I took on risky "credit" bonds.

Stocks 8.2%
Aggregate bonds 15.5% (only bond choice in retirement plan)
TLT 15.9%
Credit bonds 34.4% (LQD, EMB, HYG, PFFD)
Gold 12.7%
Cash 13.3%
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:00 pm

Stocks 8%? Aren’t you a little young for that?
Vanguard treasury money market now yields 1.72%
compounded (last week, 1.73%)
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:21 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:00 pm
Stocks 8%? Aren’t you a little young for that?
The credit bonds are quite volatile. They are my stock stand-ins.

Paul Novell's model went risk off twice in last 9 months, I have been extremely cautious about getting back in, and how I express my desire to put on risk.

I think of myself as a lemming who sprained his ankle 100 yards before the cliff face.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:45 am

Damn things are volatile lately.

But a new high on the pp for me, up 15.47% for the year.

And laughing at these multi-hundred point ups and downs.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:33 am

Yeah it is really funny listening to all the people freak out in my works investment Slack room. Most of the people on that board are not just 100% stocks, but heavy into gambling on IPO's and flavor of the month story stocks. Lots of tears there today. And me, I'm just sitting back from the comfort of my GB laughing all the way to the bank, haha.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:10 pm

Again, for historical sake, since tomorrow can and will be completely different, I post the three main assets 1 year comparison. I would not have called this by a longshot. I don't even think a gold bug or a bond bull would have got this right.

Image
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:33 pm

Stock futures down more than 1% now. Looks like the market is not buying the spin from The Kudlow & The Munchkin.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 am

What a game of ping pong.

The day after the long holiday weekend is the one to watch. If Friday is down, Tuesday is at risk.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:51 am

ochotona wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 am
What a game of ping pong.

The day after the long holiday weekend is the one to watch. If Friday is down, Tuesday is at risk.
This is a good time to say I’m glad I haven’t done much of anything with regard to trading this summer. Small moves, like Carl Sagan wrote in ‘Contact’

It’s all about asset allocation (touches pinky ring).
Vanguard treasury money market now yields 1.72%
compounded (last week, 1.73%)
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Smith1776
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:56 pm

I've done some tinkering myself. Not anything particularly drastic, but enough to be noteworthy.

I've added a value tilt to the stock portion of my portfolio via the Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (VVL). However, my total stock weighting is still the canonical 25% in the aggregate.

In my VP I've bought some shares of Lululemon. 8)
Early to bed and early to rise makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise.
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