Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:42 am

ochotona wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:04 am
Industrial metals, emerging markets, China, Italy collapsing. Even gold. 10 year bond yields backing down. Trade war rhetoric.

I smell deflation again, and a rough patch for stocks. Think Summer 2015.

If the Fed can't raise rates again this year, it means the growth narrative is a lie.
It's hard to figure out, isn't it. Some day the trade wars are dragging down gold. Others say gold's drop is a sign of confidence in the economy. It feels like anything could happen.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:12 pm

I heard an interesting explanation for why stocks have been going up since the "trade war" began. Some people are viewing it as a short squeeze, that so many people had gone short in advance of the trade war starting that they were too many short, and they could be taken advantage of by short squeeze.

Another reason to not try short term trading!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:37 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:12 pm
I heard an interesting explanation for why stocks have been going up since the "trade war" began. Some people are viewing it as a short squeeze, that so many people had gone short in advance of the trade war starting that they were too many short, and they could be taken advantage of by short squeeze.

Another reason to not try short term trading!
True about the short term trading, but makes no sense overall! This is not a one day event. These tariffs are going to take a long time to play out and can screw a lot of things up.

Those who thought yeah, I'll get short and got burned over the course of a couple days deserve it. They will likely be right long term, however.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:54 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:37 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:12 pm
I heard an interesting explanation for why stocks have been going up since the "trade war" began. Some people are viewing it as a short squeeze, that so many people had gone short in advance of the trade war starting that they were too many short, and they could be taken advantage of by short squeeze.

Another reason to not try short term trading!
True about the short term trading, but makes no sense overall! This is not a one day event. These tariffs are going to take a long time to play out and can screw a lot of things up.

Those who thought yeah, I'll get short and got burned over the course of a couple days deserve it. They will likely be right long term, however.
Short squeeze is the excuse bears use when the market moves against them...any long-time Zerohedge lurker will tell you that. Investors do sell leading up to media driven events that spark emotion then come rushing back in when the event doesn’t materialize
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Don » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:55 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:12 pm
I heard an interesting explanation for why stocks have been going up since the "trade war" began. Some people are viewing it as a short squeeze, that so many people had gone short in advance of the trade war starting that they were too many short, and they could be taken advantage of by short squeeze.

Another reason to not try short term trading!
Stocks have been going up because profits are through the roof and economic optimism is off the charts.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:00 am

Don wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:55 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:12 pm
I heard an interesting explanation for why stocks have been going up since the "trade war" began. Some people are viewing it as a short squeeze, that so many people had gone short in advance of the trade war starting that they were too many short, and they could be taken advantage of by short squeeze.

Another reason to not try short term trading!
Stocks have been going up because profits are through the roof and economic optimism is off the charts.
Don, that's why I am in the PP. I (partially), and it seems many others here and around the country, believe this market to be some sort of hallucination. How can we be doing well? The news always seems to be bad. Or tweaked. Or fake. Who can believe the market really can still keep on going up? Look at the chart, it is unsustainable. Obama screwed things up. Trump is screwing them up more. Trade wars. Russiagate.
Immigration. Mass shootings.

And on and on. Without the PP, I would be languishing in a hole (either in cash or too much gold) looking at the market going up and up and gold going sideways and getting more and more frustrated that it isn't crashing. At least I am participating.

The PP is the best thing that happened to my investing life.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:13 pm

See, here's a perfect example. Market roaring higher. Any reasons? Not really.

Not like you'll hear on the news "Market higher because Trump pissed off NATO allies" Or "Market higher as new tariffs put in place"

I still can't rectify it mentally. I'm just glad I own stocks, even though on days like today they defy all logic.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/extre ... 2018-07-12
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:30 pm

People need simple rules - rebalancing bands, or very simple technical trading rules that are not subject to interpretation.

I vent as much as anyone here, if not more, but I've learned trading by the news flow is a disaster.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:43 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:30 pm
trading by the news flow is a disaster.
Yes. Only things that can do it are computers on a mS timescale.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:20 am

Billions of people wake up every day and produce tons of stuff. Prices for everything should drop, but currency is printed to keep prices "stable." Scarce real assets (stocks) go up from inflation, inexorably.

Even when organic growth (population growth) declines, govs step in to support asset prices. eg BOJ buying stocks.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:16 am

So Facebook is down 18.5% today, to levels not seen, since, gasp, May 7, 2018 A whole 2.5 months ago.

Kind of shows a bit of the craziness of a certain class of stocks, as described in the article below.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/this-ma ... -says.html

This doesn't sound like our stock portion is as diversified as we might think.

“What has kept the market near record terrain are a mere six stocks — Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft and Facebook,” Rosenberg said in a note to clients Wednesday. “Strip out these six flashy stocks, and the overall market has done practically nothing year-to-date.”
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:21 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:16 am
This doesn't sound like our stock portion is as diversified as we might think.

“What has kept the market near record terrain are a mere six stocks — Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft and Facebook,” Rosenberg said in a note to clients Wednesday. “Strip out these six flashy stocks, and the overall market has done practically nothing year-to-date.”
Diversified enough to capture some return from those six. That’s why we index, right? Buy the haystack, because it’s not so easy to find the needle.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0&t=253655
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