Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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boglerdude
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:49 am

I wonder if gambling were legal, stock volatility would decrease
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:06 am

"Trump threatens government shutdown in September if no funding for wall"

This might be the "bullet in the head" during a seasonally weak time for stocks at the end of a by then 9.5 year run.
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sophie
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:04 am

The funny thing about these articles on predicting stock market performance is that they go entirely by trend lines, ratios etc...which are great ways of describing what happened after the fact. I found it hilarious that an article referring to the stock market drop of 2009 can manage to completely ignore the actual reason why it happened, as opposed to the valuation & trend line explanation.

I thought Harry Browne described this very well: the market is the sum total of millions of individual actions, responding to a set of circumstances that is unique to any given time period and will never recur in the same way again.
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eufo
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:25 am

sophie wrote:the market is the sum total of millions of individual actions, responding to a set of circumstances that is unique to any given time period and will never recur in the same way again.
I like this one.

Also, another one I like, but forget the source (and I'm paraphrasing)..

"The past doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:48 am

I believe it is the custom, when the source is unknown, to attribute quotes to Mark Twain.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:16 am

I just looked it up. Yeah, erroneously attributed to Mark Twain. It was found in a book of poems by a poet, a guy named Colombo -- no, not the Lieutenant. Colombo. But the poet claimed he wasn't the original source either.
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Tortoise
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:32 pm

If the past rhymes, then are those who are doomed to repeat history lyrical geniuses?
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sophie
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Tue May 01, 2018 7:49 am

Alternatively, you can always quote Yogi Berra:

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

My personal favorite though is one that might also apply to investing:

"Nobody goes there. It's too crowded."
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue May 01, 2018 8:27 am

Eufo makes a mistake attributional
Tortoise wonders if we're simply rapper tools
But it's history that rhymes
The people are just lines
And now we're off topic like usual
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue May 01, 2018 8:44 am

No one is making any money this year so far it seems....
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue May 01, 2018 12:23 pm

True Corto, but look the PP is no better.
We need to internalize this.
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