Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby buddtholomew » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:10 pm

IJS + 1.6%
This is more than a melt up, but it sure looks like this will continue if buybacks remain strong. If the tax bill fails, we’re in for a nasty surprise.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby ochotona » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:49 pm

Schwab is trying to prepare clients for a bear market. It's pretty obvious from their client communications in the last few weeks.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby Kriegsspiel » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:49 pm

This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.
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Tortoise
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby Tortoise » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:27 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.


Congrats! (I also bought a home just before 2018.) Too bad residential real estate prices tend to be highly correlated with the stock market :)

Real estate price movements tend to be dampened relative to those of the stock market, but on the other hand, most first-time home purchases are made with at least 5x leverage (assuming 20% down payment or less). Maybe it's a wash...
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby Kriegsspiel » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:39 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Kriegsspiel wrote:This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.


Congrats! (I also bought a home just before 2018.) Too bad residential real estate prices tend to be highly correlated with the stock market :)

Real estate price movements tend to be dampened relative to those of the stock market, but on the other hand, most first-time home purchases are made with at least 5x leverage (assuming 20% down payment or less). Maybe it's a wash...


Hah, well IIRC you bought a house in SoCal, which is waaaaaaay different from what I'm planning to do, which is buy a fixer-upper in the Rust Belt for, say, $30,000 in cash.

But yes, if I sold stocks and the peak, then bought a property after everything crashed... I'd probably write a book about how my strategy is the shit and make a bunch of money. Hell, if real estate prices crashed by the time I'm buying, I'd just buy a non-fixer and plug the rehab money back into the stock market.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby ochotona » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:35 pm

ochotona wrote:Schwab is trying to prepare clients for a bear market. It's pretty obvious from their client communications in the last few weeks.


@LizAnnSonders

"We have been writing about the “risk” of a melt-up for a while now- becoming clearer that’s what we’re experiencing- discipline, rebalancing, diversification all crucial"

Liz Ann is Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby ochotona » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:38 pm

US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.
buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby buddtholomew » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:43 pm

My International Growth fund is + 6% YTD, not including today which will be another 1%+
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby Cortopassi » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:27 pm

Budd, you'll be retiring by March...

Fear Of Missing Out. Heard a story that more retail investors are starting to get in. Now. Finally. Hah.

Three things:

1) The PP has kept me in stocks. I either still would have never gotten back in from 2009 if it wasn't for the PP, or I would have gotten in and bailed early again. I guarantee it. Instead I get to enjoy it.

2) It looks like these tax cuts are working at least for now, with Apple bringing back money and jobs, various companies giving pay hikes and bonuses, etc.

3) When it happens, this is going to be the mother of all crashes taking everyone down that doesn't have some gold in hand. Or at least that's what I think.
buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby buddtholomew » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:31 pm

Haha, I was thinking for my birthday in Feb.
Agree, I would have sold to cash to “lock-in” profits countless times between 2009 and today. PP has kept me in stocks too.
It’s certainly been more challenging to stay in Gold and Bonds.
Nevertheless, I am happy with the PP’s performance and combined with a stock heavy global PP the combination has been rewarding.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby dualstow » Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:53 pm

ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil
flickr is moving to smugmug
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Postby ochotona » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:08 am

dualstow wrote:
ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil


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