Who Killed Prighozin?

[stuper1]

Let’s use some common sense to think about who may have killed Prighozin? Many people haven’t given it any thought, assuming that Putin is the only viable candidate. This is incurious, and the case is not nearly as clear-cut as we’ve been told, which I will explain below, showing some simple reasons why it may not have been Putin who did the deed. For the record, I certainly don’t know for sure who killed Prighozin, and I would put the chances that Putin did do it as say 50 to 60%. And also for the record, I don’t even care at this point about being called a Putin apologist, which I’m not. What I am is an apologist for seeking the truth, because that’s the only way out of the tangle of lies and secrets that has enabled US foreign-policy fiascoes since the 1850s with millions of unnecessary deaths mainly of non-Americans. As the good book says, the truth will set you free (read the Book of Acts and the gospels with an open mind if you want details on how people can be set free spiritually).

Why isn’t it clear that Putin killed Prighozin? To me, the main complicating factor is that on the day Prighozin was murdered, Putin was in the midst of an important conference (I think it was a multi-day conference if memory serves) he had set up with African leaders to try to arrange some kind of understanding, agreement, or treaty. To my mind, at least, this raises some doubt as to who killed Prighozin, especially when there are other credible suspects, which I will lay out below. If I’m Putin having a high-level conference with African leaders, the last thing I would want is to have the news that I assassinated a rival come out in the middle of the conference. That would just be a huge distraction, and make it difficult to get people to pay attention and come to an agreement. I mean I’m the czar of Russia; I could kill Prighozin next week just as easy; why do it do it now right in the middle of this important conference that took a lot of work to set up?

To be fair, on the counter side of that, maybe Putin wanted the murder to come out in the middle of the conference, because he knew it would impress the African leaders to know that he’s as tough as his reputation, and therefore they would be more willing to sign the agreement knowing that they want somebody like him on their side. Strong men do like to have other strong men on their side I’m sure. But again, to me if I’m Putin, if that was my aim, I wouldn’t have done it in the middle of the conference, just because the news could be so startling that it would risk creating too much drama and confusion and various leaders huddling with their advisers to see how the killing impacts things and nothing would get signed. I would have killed Prighozin the week before to give the other leaders a chance to think about it and come to terms with it and figure out that it’s still good for them to come to terms with me so I can be a strong leader by their side.

As you can see, I’m just throwing out possibilities. I don’t claim to know with 100% certainty who killed Prighozin. But I hope you can at least admit that the case isn’t as cut and dried as the news media make it out to be. You’d think these supposedly intelligent journalists could admit that not everything in the world is black and white, but that doesn’t seem to suit their purposes, which seem to be to act as propaganda arms for the military-industrial complex. But I digress.

So, who are the other candidates for murderer:
1. Ukraine/NATO is one candidate, although if it was them, I won’t even call it a murder, but just a war-time casualty, because Prighozin was the leader of the Wagner Group, which is fighting Ukraine, so he is not a civilian and is a legitimate target. Why would Ukraine/NATO want to kill Prighozin? Lots of reasons. I just stated one, which is that he was a military leader of an invading force. Next, because they knew it could disrupt Putin’s conference with African leaders, which they would dearly love to disrupt; they don’t want Russia making friendly agreements with other countries. Also, they knew everyone throughout the world would assume Putin did it, so it just reinforces his image as a thug. The continued appearance of infighting also sows discord throughout the Russian leadership and military. So, there are lots and lots of reasons why Ukraine/NATO can’t be discounted as a suspect in what would be for them the legitimate killing of Prighozin.
2. Other leaders in Russia, maybe Wagner leaders or other political or military leaders, working completely independently from Putin without his knowledge, are another candidate. Why would they kill Prighozin? To gain a political edge. To settle a political score. To avenge the deaths of Russians who died when Prighozin shot down a Russian plane during his revolt (what a strange episode! I can’t wait to hopefully one day read a cogent account of what was going on with this whole affair; I can’t help but feel there’s a lot we don’t know yet, but maybe it’s very simple). There are a multitude of possible reasons why other Russian leaders would want Prighozin dead. I discount the other-Russian-leaders theory a bit though, because they could have picked a better time, so as not to disrupt the important African conference. However, maybe a chance presented itself, where one of their agents had access to Prighozin’s plane, and it didn’t seem like they would get another chance soon, so they decided to go ahead with it and not worry about the African conference.

To my mind, those are the three main suspects. I’d give a 50 to 60% chance to Putin, a 20 to 30% chance to Ukraine/NATO, and a 20 to 30% chance to other Russian leaders without Putin’s knowledge. And yes these are just numbers I picked out with the fluff between my toes. There are possibly other suspects that should be included. I enjoy thinking about these things, but I’m not a particularly deep thinker, so I very well may have missed other possible suspects.

So, in the fullness of time, if it’s revealed beyond reasonable doubt that somebody besides Putin killed Prighozin, I for one won’t be surprised. The minute I heard of the killing my first thought was about the African conference I knew Putin was having that very day, and I thought that this seems like a very strange time to be doing something so dramatic as killing a rival.

I have a question, dear reader, if you’re still with me, which I know is not very likely by now. First, I have to admit that I don’t read, watch, or listen to mainstream media much anymore, because they don’t seem to provide me with anything useful. My question is: have you seen anything like the analysis above in the mainstream media, or do they all just repeat the party line that Putin obviously killed Prighozin without a shadow of a doubt? Because my analysis above, I mean if you think it has any value, only required me to know one little fact, which seems to be beyond dispute, and which was that Putin was having an important conference with African leaders on the day Prighozin was killed. That’s all it took for me to write this overly long analysis. I didn’t have to do any journalistic research out in the field or call anybody or anything like that. Which makes me wonder, why don’t we get any honest analysis from our news media anymore? Now, if you think my analysis has no value, then I guess we just have to agree to disagree. I did admit that I’m not a particularly deep thinker, and that wasn’t a weird attempt at false modesty; I know that for a fact to be true. Maybe I just like to think I’m analyzing things when really I’m just tilting at imaginary windmills that only exist in my head. It’s entirely possible, and if that’s the case then that’s fine also. Life could be much worse. I could be a frightened young unwilling conscript lying shattered in a ditch in Ukraine slowly bleeding out to die with nobody to help me and the sky growing dim as my eyesight fades to black forever. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it no matter how many times people tell me that I’m too set 100% in my misguided opinions.

[vnatale]

Complete brief reply from me.

I did read it all. A lot of conjectures that could have validity. Or, not.

You must have done well in any education class that required writing.

[stuper1]

Well, exactly. I never claimed they were anything but conjectures. Contrast that with what you get from the news media these days where they claim to know 5 minutes after Prighozin's plane blew up that Putin is the only possible person who could have been behind it. Does anybody actually believe ANYTHING you read in the news media today?

[vnatale]

Well, exactly. I never claimed they were anything but conjectures. Contrast that with what you get from the news media these days where they claim to know 5 minutes after Prighozin's plane blew up that Putin is the only possible person who could have been behind it. Does anybody actually believe ANYTHING you read in the news media today?

I believe most of it. Unless I have any knowledge to counter what I read.

[stuper1]

I question all of it, because I've seen too many examples of misuse. Trump and Covid blew the lid off media malfeasance.