An American’s long scribblings on diplomacy with China and Russia

[stuper1]

I’m an American, mid-50s in age, who used to be strongly patriotic, but now thinks that God loves all His children equally. America and Americans have done a lot of very good things in this world and some very bad things. The same is true of other countries. Nobody has a monopoly on good or evil. As a barometer of my level of patriotic feeling, consider that the only sport I spend a little time watching is tennis, and I cheer for people from lots of different countries. As long as a player isn’t an arrogant brat, I’m happy if an American breaks through and wins, but I’m also happy when a player from say Tunisia overcomes some longstanding personal demons and does well. I can’t think of a single player who I support or don’t support based on the country they come from, but there are definitely some arrogant brats who I don’t support due to their individual bad attitudes. One of my favorite players is from Taiwan. Sometimes she plays doubles with a woman from China. They seem to get along well, as befits people who are basically cousins from areas separated by a few miles of water.

We all see everything through the lens of our past experience, which is no deep insight but just a simple fact. People in the West have lived in representative democracies for a long time, so we think that everybody worldwide must want to live in a democracy. However, places like China and Russia have had strong-man, monarchical-style leadership for hundreds or thousands of years. That seems to be what they are used to. They have no or very little tradition of functioning representative democracy. Are there many people in these countries that would prefer democracy? I’m sure there are. Is that a majority of their people? I don’t know. In truth, it is very hard to know whether a majority wants it. I’m not a mind reader, especially of hundreds of millions of minds at once, and especially people from a completely different culture and historical context than mine. Different sources say different things on the matter. Each source has its own biases and tilts its presentation accordingly.

Now, whose job is it to decide what form of government these countries should have going forward? Is it the USA’s job? Or is it the job of the people who live in those countries? How would we know what form of government they truly want currently? Well, again, it’s hard to tell isn’t it. I have some news for you: maybe a majority of people in Russia or China like their current form of government. It’s really hard to tell, but here’s the good and simple news for you: it’s none of our business. They get to decide it themselves and vote with how they live their lives. If they want a democracy, then they are going to have to fight for it themselves; nobody else can do it for them. Please note the first word in that last sentence, which is “if”. That’s the big question, do they want a democracy or do they want to stick with the same form of government they have had for hundreds or thousands of years? There is no white knight that can come in from the outside and give them a democracy, because first of all he would have to know the unknowable, which is what the will of the majority of a nation of hundreds of millions of people is. The will of these peoples has to be expressed by themselves through their actions; that is the only way that it is remotely knowable. So far, they have the governments that they have right now. So, at this point, the best we can infer is that they prefer these forms of government, unless you are a better mind reader than I. Their preference may change in 5, 20, 50, 100, or 500 years, or it may not. Time will tell. But no outsider can say that a majority of people right now in China or Russia want a democracy, because that is impossible to know. I guess maybe some will argue that every person in the world would want a democracy if they were enlightened. I’m not so sure of that; again I’m not a mind reader. I would say the person who argues that is just looking at things narrowly through the lens of their past experience.

The western media point to various incidents and try to paint Putin or Xi as thugs. There are recent internal and external incidents involving the USA that make the US government look like a thug too. Somebody in Russia or China could easily take those incidents and write up a lengthy article arguing that the USA is ruled by thugs. And they actually do write such articles, and much of the rest of the world in places like India, Indonesia, Africa, South America read the articles and says, yeah Russia, China, and the USA are all thugs. Maybe Putin or Xi really are thugs, though. Believe it or not, I don’t actually know one way or the other what level of murderous pathology is in their souls; the same way I don’t know for say John Bolton or Dick Cheney or Victoria Nuland. I’m sure that nobody rises to that level of power without being ready to break some eggs and crush fingers on the ladder rungs below them. Once Putin and Xi die, the next leaders of Russia or China probably won’t be much better or different in terms of actual thuggery, although some leaders do a better job of hiding things with a veneer of civility.

At this point I will say something that is arguable, which is that some of the so-called thuggish incidents involving Putin and Xi that the media point to are really questionable on their face when you think about them with just a little common sense and start to realize that propaganda isn’t something only used in Russia and China, but I’m digressing.

Ok, so what should the US do going forward? Do we treat China and Russia as pariahs until they conform to our views on government? Do we browbeat, upbraid, and hector them at every turn about their retrograde policies (in our exalted view) on clearly vital issues such as homosexual and transgender rights? Do we refuse to deal diplomatically with their current governments because that would only legitimize them? If we do deal with them diplomatically, do we do it respectfully as befits major powers sitting down to talk about issues of conflict, or do we only do it in a bullying posture from a position of strength because our military is stronger than anyone else’s currently with 800+ military bases spread imperialistically throughout the world? Do we look down our noses at their antiquated, barbaric systems of government? Do we lecture them non-stop about how our system is better than their system? Do we do everything we can to try to destabilize their current governments? Do we actively try to be a thorn in the side of these governments? What kind of diplomacy is this? This is diplomacy that doesn’t deserve the name “diplomacy.” When did our diplomacy become so bad? I can tell you when; it was right after the end of the Cold War when the USA become the world’s unchallenged hegemon. We didn’t use to deal with Kruschev, Brezhnev, and Mao like this. We used to sit down with such leaders and deal with them diplomatically even though they also were murderous thugs. Our Cold War diplomats would be aghast at what passes for US diplomacy these days. Note: there is a militaristic group in the US government who think all of the actions listed above are great ideas, and they benefit from it because the actions are self-fulfilling prophecies and because as long as the US people have a bogeyman to be afraid of, then they can boost the military budget almost without restraint, which results in dollars flowing freely to arms makers and then some dollars back to consultants and politicians. If they can’t make us afraid of the Soviet Union (which turned out to be a paper tiger, and the US likely knew it, but milked it for all it was worth), or Iraq with its imaginary WMDs, or global terrorism, or Russia and China, they will try to make us afraid of space aliens about to invade; if you don’t believe me, just read some recent news articles, they have already started doing this as a backup plan.

Do you see how all of those possible actions I listed as questions in the first half of the paragraph above might be counterproductive and result in self-fulfilling prophecies of conflict? There is an alternative: we could stay out of other countries’ business and just go about our own business and model a productive democracy. And in the fullness of time I suspect the peoples of China and Russia would see our productive example and decide that they too want democracies and they would rise up and create democracies for themselves, probably through a very bloody process but maybe (hopefully) without too much blood. This doesn’t mean we would have to let down our guard or sacrifice our military defense. We can walk and chew gum at the same time, meaning we can have a productive economy, a less in-your-face diplomacy, and still have a vigorous defensive posture militarily. Oh and maybe you know cut down on the illegal surveillance of our own citizens and that kind of garbage. In fact, if we were to say cut our military budget in half (which by the way would still give us a bigger military budget than China, Russia, and India combined), there would certainly be short term pain to a lot of leeches currently dependent on the military budget, but in the long run, we would have a lot more money to invest productively in our economy, which would manifest in myriad positive ways, and make us even more of a shining light to places like Russia and China, showing them why they should make the leap to a different form of government. Yes, and we might get a few more potholes fixed and bus stations, hospitals, and airports looking a little shinier, so we actually look like a reasonably prosperous country again, which I have to say is a picture that seems to be fading from my vantage point.

Or maybe China and Russia never will decide they want democracies. Maybe they will decide they want to stick with what has worked for them so far. I don’t claim to know what other people want, especially people from a completely different culture and historical context. I’m not a mind reader. I’m trying not to look at things narrowly through the lens of my own past favorable experience with democracy. If you feel differently, that’s okay, I’m fine with that. We can agree to disagree. I promise I still like you. I too truly wish there were flying unicorns sprinkling fairy dust eternally across our skies and am saddened that real life is not like that.

[seajay]

The 'state' is just another name for the biggest/strongest gang in town. Make money from the likes of gambling (betting duties) and drugs (alcohol, cigarettes taxation), collect their protection payments (taxes) or otherwise individuals risk harm (imprisonment). They have their heavies (Police/Army) to protect their patch/power.

Increasingly here in the UK and your every move/action/thought/spending is being tracked/recorded/analysed by the state (and others). We each have our open prison number (TRN) and provided you stay within the limits of what the current gang president defines you are permitted the freedom to move around, or otherwise are locked up into a box.

I'd rather see gang heads battle things out themselves, throw Putin and Zelenskyy into a ring rather than 100's of 1000's of lives brought to a early close. Life is a gift, that's why they call the here and now the 'present'.

Better a gang head that isn't too extreme, if that comes under threat then it may be wise to fight for them in order to avoid a more unpleasant gang leader gaining control.

Russia and China, they will try to make us afraid of space aliens about to invade; if you don’t believe me, just read some recent news articles, they have already started doing this

I've heard that the US has the most illegal aliens and tens of thousands more pouring in every day. If you leave your front door wide open !!

[vnatale]

A not full response to all you have above.

1. 72 years old. Never have described myself as patriotic and have always believed that God loves all His children equally. Never read about the United States in The Bible or even being prophesized. Do not agree with churches having the American flag in churches or the close association with the military, which seems to go against all Jesus preached / stood for.

2. On balance, believe that the United States has been an overall good force with the world though, getting back to #1, never agreed with the Patriots' creed of "Love it of leave it."

3. As an intense sports fan I do root for my teams (not necessarily the "home" teams) but, in this case, always for the United States teams. Never found any reason otherwise. But I could if I did find such reason.

4. I did read a book some time ago that stated that giving many countries democracies when they've not been prepared to handle it have led to disasters. Democracies put far more responsibilities on its citizens than do non-democracies.

5. It's the job of those in a country to decide what form of government they have. But how is this done in a non-democratic country? Or, in one that has elections like China and Russia but where one person - Putin, Xi - can effectively appoint themselves as leaders for life, beyond the will of the people? I'm not saying it is our country's role to intervene in these cases.

6. "News" and "maybe" seem to be paradoxical?

"I have some news for you: maybe a majority of people in Russia or China like their current form of government"

7. While I am remembering. You do not address the issue of after World War II Russia essentially taking over several countries, e.g., Poland, Hungary, West Germany. Where do you stand on that and what our country's position should have been in those cases?

8. There are degrees of thugishness. So while our country's behaviors certainly fit into that category we are merely players while Putin and Xi are each Hall of Famers.

But you are correct that those whose governments we oppose were always able to point to the racism that had been so pervasive in this country.

9. I did recently read a book on Xi. It scared me that to think that a person like him (not of the highest quality) is in charge of such a huge country.

10. In what ways do we treat China as a pariah? They seem be investing heavily in our country via their Treasury purchases and we as consumers seem to consume much of their manufacturing output. Therefore it'd not be in the best interest of either country to disrupt either of these.

11. Yes, The Military / Industrial / Education complex is definitely a problem in this country that puts its interests ahead of that of the country's.

12. I do like this and believe it is best: "There is an alternative: we could stay out of other countries’ business and just go about our own business and model a productive democracy." Fully believe in my actions speak way louder than my words.

13. Definitely in favor of cutting the military budget in the way you suggest but that is a rational argument which would never pass due to the emotional arguments always prevailing.

14. I had thought that Russia had decided it wanted to be a democracy. What are these votes for in China if they also do not have some form of democracy?

15. I don't know how pure a democracy we are (putting aside that we are really a constitutional republic?) compared to other countries. How well we do at it. It's certainly a good ideal for a government as opposed to governments being self-appointed and making its own rules.

There is rampant corruption at all levels of our government. If not illegal corruption a lot of putting self-interests ahead of the country's interests as a whole.