Chas Freeman, US Diplomat, on the Ukraine War

[stuper1]

https://chasfreeman.net/the-many-lesson ... /#_ftnref1

He says: "Every government that is a party to the Ukraine War – Kyiv, Moscow, Washington, and other NATO capitals – has been guilty of various degrees of self-deception and blundering misfeasance. The consequences for all have been dire. For Ukraine, they have been catastrophic. A radical rethinking of policy by all concerned is long overdue." I read the whole article, and I didn't see a whole lot that Moscow could have done differently to protect its security interests.

A year ago he would have been shouted down as a Putin apologist for saying the exact same things he is saying today. Unfortunately, several hundred thousand Ukrainians had to die before it became okay to say these things. A lot of those people would be alive today if the US hadn't sent $130 billion dollars over there. And the ironic thing is that in the end Ukraine is probably going to end up with less territory than it would have if they had negotiated at the beginning before all those people died. It's always the little guy who suffers from the decisions of the people behind the desks who won't ever get anywhere near the front lines (nor will their sons and daughters who are safely evacuated to say London, Paris, and Berlin). Russian is in no mood to negotiate at this point anyway. They have the upper hand, and they've been burned by so many Western so-called treaties and agreements that they know not to trust the West any longer. My prediction is that Russia will just keep plodding along in this fight until Ukraine cracks completely and then Russia will take the rest of the Russian-speaking regions which includes the area where Odessa is and all the way over to Transnistria, which is the Russian-aligned part of Moldova that Russia I'm sure would love to be connected to so they can protect it. Russia won't take Kiev and northwest Ukraine, which were never Russian-aligned parts of Ukraine, because they won't want the counterinsurgency headache that that would entail.

[dualstow]

No idea how it’s going to play out, but Ukraine needs to show results before the west grows weary of funding in. The Russians have adapted.

[stuper1]

No idea how it’s going to play out, but Ukraine needs to show results before the west grows weary of funding in. The Russians have adapted.

Surely you're not suggesting that the west is only in this for their own interests? I thought the west was funding Ukraine out of the goodness of its heart due to the obvious moral righteousness of the Ukraine cause. Surely you wouldn't suggest that the west would let those hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians to have died in vain?

As I said earlier, it looks like not only will those hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have died in vain, but Ukraine will actually end up with much less territory than if they had accepted the peace deal that was worked out within a month of the conflict starting, before the US and UK put the kibosh on it. Wasn't it one of our own, Kissinger, who said: it's dangerous to be America's enemy, but fatal to be America's friend?

The saddest part of all is that the Ukrainians who suffer the most are the poorest ones who probably had little desire to be involved but had no resources to leave the country when the conflict started. The reason they had little desire is because they couldn't care less whether they are ruled by a corrupt Kiev or a corrupt Moscow. It's not going to make a bit of difference to their daily lives in 10 years, except a lot of them are now dead and won't be around in 10 years.

[Tortoise]

As I said earlier, it looks like not only will those hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have died in vain, but Ukraine will actually end up with much less territory than if they had accepted the peace deal that was worked out within a month of the conflict starting, before the US and UK put the kibosh on it.

Right. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, I remember some non-mainstream commentators claiming that Ukraine would not ultimately repel the invasion -- even with the US's help -- so they should negotiate in order to end the conflict quickly and minimize loss of life. But Ukraine and the US chose not to negotiate.

Different reasons were given, some more idealistic than others. The most convincing reason I've seen is that the US political and military leadership wanted to "bleed Russia" as much as possible -- even if it was nearly certain that Ukraine would fail to ultimately repel Russia. Because the more Russia bleeds, the harder it is for Russia to challenge US global hegemony.

I guess that's a solid reason if you're a war-gamer in D.C. pushing pieces around on a geopolitical chessboard. The problem is that it costs hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian lives. (Details...)

Was it worth the massive Ukrainian blood sacrifice just to kneecap Russia for a few years? I don't think so; the idea of such a barbaric tradeoff horrifies me. But I'm not paid to war-game in D.C., so what do I know?

[stuper1]

Well said. Barbaric tradeoffs don't seem to faze our leaders one bit.

A while back just for kicks I looked up the happiness index for Ukraine and Russia for the year 2019 I think, so pre-Covid and pre-Ukraine war. It showed Russia with a lead over Ukraine in happiness. I have no idea who puts together the happiness index and whether it's reliable or not. If it is reliable it shows that the average Russian under the obviously corrupt Russian government is a bit happier than the average Ukrainian under its obviously corrupt government. My point is that the average working-class person in Ukraine probably doesn't care that much whether he's ruled over by Kiev or Moscow. He knows it's going to be corrupt either way. If anything, if the happiness index is reliable, he may be a bit happier under Moscow than Kiev. I suspect the main thing he wants is to not be sent to die in some pointless meat-grinder of a war where they are literally fighting over whether the final border is going to be a few miles east or west of where it is currently.

The leadership class on both sides argues about whether the missiles can be placed in Ukraine or not. The little guy at the bottom of the food chain ends up paying the price if the leadership class miscalculates about how close they can push the missiles before the leaders on the other side say that they have gone too far. And again some will say oh but Putin started the actual kinetic conflict. And again I will say that if the shoe was on the other foot we would do exactly the same, except far worse, if missiles were being threated to go into Mexico, and to think otherwise is unrealistic given how brutally we treated Iraqis who are nowhere near our border and didn't even have actual WMDs to begin with.

[dualstow]

No idea how it’s going to play out, but Ukraine needs to show results before the west grows weary of funding in. The Russians have adapted.

Surely you're not suggesting that the west is only in this for their own interests? I thought the west was funding Ukraine out of the goodness of its heart due to the obvious moral righteousness of the Ukraine cause. Surely you wouldn't suggest that the west would let those hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians to have died in vain?

Yeah, appeasement is one thing..

I don’t see any suggestion of motive, period, in my statement. Sarcasm is cheap and easy, but it only gets one so far.
And, as Tortoise is not paid to wargame in D.C., I also am not privy to what’s going in in the back rooms, and never claim to be. I do know that every nation has its limit, and it is certainly possible that if progress is not made, that the U.S. and other allies will be “encouraged” (ok, incentivized, ugh) to spend our aid money elsewhere.

The Ukrainians were going to fight back either way. I am very curious about how much private reassurance we gave them before the conflict began. Someday we’ll know.

I don’t want to “pull a Vinny” after teasing him for bringing up WWII so often in a thread about a modern war- or special operation if you like. However, I have to say again that there’s nothing like reading about conflicts after some of the layers and mysteries have been peeled back. And, reading about N & S Korea from the 40’s through the 60’s, especially after Soviet archives were opened up following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 90’s — wow.

Someday we’ll know what was really going on before and during this war.

[Mountaineer]

Why is any of this a surprise? People are evil. Evil people do evil things. Every attempt to create heaven on earth has failed since man's first attempt to be like God. Why get in a dither over things you can't control? A complete waste of time, talent and energy in my opinion.

[dualstow]

Why is any of this a surprise? People are evil.

We humans all mostly want the same things out of life. (Evening barbecues) And yet, we can’t seem to make it work.

[vnatale]

Why is any of this a surprise? People are evil. Evil people do evil things. Every attempt to create heaven on earth has failed since man's first attempt to be like God. Why get in a dither over things you can't control? A complete waste of time, talent and energy in my opinion.

What is your view of government, a representative government, which is supposed to respond to the will of the populace?

If this is true ... then don't we each have some form / degree of control? Certainly what each of have is infinitesimally tiny but collectively it does elect presidents on a national level, and other government officials on all other levels. And, it does make huge differences who is elected to each of those offices.

[vnatale]

Why is any of this a surprise? People are evil. Evil people do evil things. Every attempt to create heaven on earth has failed since man's first attempt to be like God. Why get in a dither over things you can't control? A complete waste of time, talent and energy in my opinion.

Also, I do not know how your church is governed or structured so I don't know the extent to which you as an individual member have any input on any church decisions but I'd assume you that participate to the fullest extent of possible in terms of giving your inputs?

Of course, decisions don't always get made the way you prefer. However, I assume that you believe that you have some degree of control? At the same time, others in the same church may believe that they have no control.

[stuper1]

Why is any of this a surprise? People are evil. Evil people do evil things. Every attempt to create heaven on earth has failed since man's first attempt to be like God. Why get in a dither over things you can't control? A complete waste of time, talent and energy in my opinion.

The idea is that if enough Americans see that their government is stupidly getting people killed all over the globe with its militaristic hegemonistic bully attitude, maybe they will rise up with pitchforks to throw the bums out. And then maybe less people will get killed in stupid wars that don't need to happen just because the US wants its missiles to be a few hundred miles closer to Moscow.

That's the idea, but in reality I know you're right; it's not going to happen.

[boglerdude]

https://caitlinjohnstone.com.au/2023/10 ... eterrence/

"CCP should begin encircling the United States with war machinery”

Sigh. Well, ok, there is a discussion to be had about maintaining balance of power and decentralization. But Martial Law for flu season was a CCP created and promoted concept...

Stupes, since you're digging into policy and history, does China want to continue getting cheap Russian gas or do they want to divide up Russia with the West?