Trump reelection bid

If Trump announced he was going to run in 2024 would you vote for him knowing what you know today?

Yes
3
15%
No
17
85%
 
Total votes: 20
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by glennds » Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:11 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 8:32 am
Here's two good maps look at them side by side...let their import sink in (and I'll spell it out)

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/ ... /president

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ident.html

Crazies and politicos nominate, you win by winning the swing vote in a few states. Hillary lost the middle, Trump lost the middle and that's why their opponents won.

It could have been close in the electoral college vote, it was not at all close in the popular vote.

The states that could have made a difference have all been highly scrutinized.

Woulda coulda shoulda, the man lost fair and square. The Ds played it smart and nominated someone who was not in THEIR crazy camp.

P.S. Since the 1980s it is much more difficult for any R presidential nominee to win than a D for the simple fact of a gigantic state on the west coast with a buttload of electoral votes that are non-competitive. It's an uphill climb from day 1.
Sarah Palin's special election loss in Alaska, just announced, reinforces your point. The general consensus from political analysts was that a solidly conservative state will vote Dem over Crazy as Alaska just did.
Not long ago, there was a red wave predicted for the Nov mid-terms. Now it's just not clear.

I would say the cause of Conservatism is being harmed by cult politics at this point. If conservatives could find a more moderate standard bearer, they would steamroll over today's Democrats and hold the keys to the kingdom. The benefits of the Trump stranglehold may outweigh the negatives in places like WY, but not so much in the larger scheme of the nation.
Today you're a RINO if you don't support Trump and the crazy cult. But at some point soon you may be a RINO if you do.
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by vnatale » Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:34 am

glennds wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:11 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 8:32 am

Here's two good maps look at them side by side...let their import sink in (and I'll spell it out)

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/ ... /president

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ident.html

Crazies and politicos nominate, you win by winning the swing vote in a few states. Hillary lost the middle, Trump lost the middle and that's why their opponents won.

It could have been close in the electoral college vote, it was not at all close in the popular vote.

The states that could have made a difference have all been highly scrutinized.

Woulda coulda shoulda, the man lost fair and square. The Ds played it smart and nominated someone who was not in THEIR crazy camp.

P.S. Since the 1980s it is much more difficult for any R presidential nominee to win than a D for the simple fact of a gigantic state on the west coast with a buttload of electoral votes that are non-competitive. It's an uphill climb from day 1.


Sarah Palin's special election loss in Alaska, just announced, reinforces your point. The general consensus from political analysts was that a solidly conservative state will vote Dem over Crazy as Alaska just did.
Not long ago, there was a red wave predicted for the Nov mid-terms. Now it's just not clear.

I would say the cause of Conservatism is being harmed by cult politics at this point. If conservatives could find a more moderate standard bearer, they would steamroll over today's Democrats and hold the keys to the kingdom. The benefits of the Trump stranglehold may outweigh the negatives in places like WY, but not so much in the larger scheme of the nation.
Today you're a RINO if you don't support Trump and the crazy cult. But at some point soon you may be a RINO if you do.


What have all the elections demonstrated so far in how many more women are voting? Those extra women are not going to be voting Republican.
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:34 am

joypog wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 8:15 am
dualstow wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 7:41 am
joypog wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 8:56 pm
I still I can't fathom how Hunter's laptop (even given what we know now) would have swung the election.
I only wish it had been a Palm Pilot. Then we’d have more posts from Cortopassi.
Cortopassi rocks a pilot?! I like him more already. How do we get him posting more actively...beyond creating bot accounts?
He worked for Palm
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by glennds » Thu Sep 01, 2022 1:09 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:34 am


What have all the elections demonstrated so far in how many more women are voting? Those extra women are not going to be voting Republican.
Vinny, I think that statement is too broad to be accurate. There are plenty of conservative voting women, even among newer registrants. I think your point may be closer to valid with the Millennial and post-Millennial Gen Z cohorts which lean Democrat. These groups will outnumber Baby Boomers if they don't already.

Plenty of women at Trump rallies, but I don't see a whole lot of Millennial or Gen Z voters, maybe just a few to my eye.
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by glennds » Thu Sep 01, 2022 2:05 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 1:28 pm
glennds wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:11 am


Sarah Palin's special election loss in Alaska, just announced, reinforces your point. The general consensus from political analysts was that a solidly conservative state will vote Dem over Crazy as Alaska just did.
It was my understanding that the only reason she lost is bc of the new ranked choice voting.
I did read that they use ranked choice voting but did not hear that it was the reason for her loss. The way Alaska does it, ranked choice only kicks in if no candidate got more than 50% of the 1st place votes.
Are you saying if not for ranked choice voting Palin would have won? If yes, what are the mechanics behind this?

Disclaimer: I'm a neophyte on ranked choice voting, so this is a sincere question.
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by glennds » Thu Sep 01, 2022 3:56 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 3:24 pm
glennds wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 2:05 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 1:28 pm
glennds wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:11 am


Sarah Palin's special election loss in Alaska, just announced, reinforces your point. The general consensus from political analysts was that a solidly conservative state will vote Dem over Crazy as Alaska just did.
It was my understanding that the only reason she lost is bc of the new ranked choice voting.
I did read that they use ranked choice voting but did not hear that it was the reason for her loss. The way Alaska does it, ranked choice only kicks in if no candidate got more than 50% of the 1st place votes.
Are you saying if not for ranked choice voting Palin would have won? If yes, what are the mechanics behind this?

Disclaimer: I'm a neophyte on ranked choice voting, so this is a sincere question.
If there was no ranked choice voting, there would have been a run-off between the top two vote getters. If the other top candidate was Peltola (D), she presumably would have lost to Palin (R) in the run-off.
Why do you presume Peltola would have lost the run-off? From what I can tell, the ranked choice voting basically reveals what would have happened in a run-off i.e. since Peltola had more second place or third place votes than Palin, it foretells that she would have won the run-off.
Ranked choice seems like a good system to me, especially when the field is large.

Of course, Palin herself and Republicans, notably Senator Tom Cotten, are calling it a "scam" rigged election, no surprise, because their candidate lost. I'm sure if Palin had won, ranked choice voting would be awesome. For credibility, it would be so much better for Republicans to not make rigged election claims. Setting aside the public fatigue, it's not like it will overturn Alaska's election anyway. Better to keep your credibility and fight the next fight.
Last edited by glennds on Thu Sep 01, 2022 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Sep 01, 2022 7:47 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 7:03 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:30 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:15 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:36 pm
Well, what is on the laptop spells out big time influence peddling by Hunter, with a cut going to Joe. Maybe this will get investigated eventually.

But yeah, it’s just Russian disinformation, nothing to see here. Move along.
As much as I dislike Joe Biden .... he and his son are two different people.

Has anything been proven that he did this with his father's knowledge? If not, then how should it affect how someone evaluates his father?
It will take investigations to prove it. But on the surface the email evidence looks damning. If you haven't looked at it all, there isn't much use in me trying to tell you about it, really. Not trying to be mean, just that if you are interested, the laptop info is out there for review.
I did start looking into it but the extremely extensive Wikipedia article I was reading but it was far too long for my interest to read it all.

The article was extremely well documented. I find it far more convincing than all the right wing media outlets with their slants and positions not based upon evidence.
If you only read left leaning sites such as Wikipedia, you’ll only see what they want you to see. You seem unwilling to consider “right wing” information. You are just doing the confirmation bias thing. I read lefty sites all the time.

The NY Post broke the story. Why not read it there and actually see it unfiltered?
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by vnatale » Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:05 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 7:47 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 7:03 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:30 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:15 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:36 pm

Well, what is on the laptop spells out big time influence peddling by Hunter, with a cut going to Joe. Maybe this will get investigated eventually.

But yeah, it’s just Russian disinformation, nothing to see here. Move along.


As much as I dislike Joe Biden .... he and his son are two different people.

Has anything been proven that he did this with his father's knowledge? If not, then how should it affect how someone evaluates his father?


It will take investigations to prove it. But on the surface the email evidence looks damning. If you haven't looked at it all, there isn't much use in me trying to tell you about it, really. Not trying to be mean, just that if you are interested, the laptop info is out there for review.


I did start looking into it but the extremely extensive Wikipedia article I was reading but it was far too long for my interest to read it all.

The article was extremely well documented. I find it far more convincing than all the right wing media outlets with their slants and positions not based upon evidence.


If you only read left leaning sites such as Wikipedia, you’ll only see what they want you to see. You seem unwilling to consider “right wing” information. You are just doing the confirmation bias thing. I read lefty sites all the time.

The NY Post broke the story. Why not read it there and actually see it unfiltered?


1. I've not detected when I read Wikipedia that it is left-leaning. Most of what I use it for has no political content to it at all and the information I find on those topics are extremely well documented. I'd never be able to find that level of detail if I spent hours and hours and hours doing my own searching on the internet.

2. I'm not unwilling to consider "right wing" information. I'm unwilling to accept biased "right wing" information. I admired Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday because while he was a definite conservative he treated his liberal and conservative guests the same way. He was hard on both of them in that he did not allow them to get away with non-answers.

3. Here are the problems with reading the NY Post story and I'll let you refute any of what the Wikipedia documented article has to say:

a. PolitiFact wrote in June 2021: "Over time, there has been less doubt that the laptop did in fact belong to Hunter Biden", concluding that the laptop "was real in the sense that it exists, but it didn't prove much", as "[n]othing from the laptop has revealed illegal or unethical behavior by Joe Biden as vice president with regard to his son's tenure as a director for Burisma..."[4] PolitiFact states that it is possible that "copies of a laptop" were obtained, instead of the actual laptop.[4]

b. On October 14, 2020, the New York Post published an article based on an email from the laptop about a purported meeting between then vice president Joe Biden and the Burisma advisor Vadym Pozharskyi. The Biden campaign denied Joe Biden had any meeting with Pozharskyi and said that if they had ever met, it would have been a brief encounter.[6] Witnesses at the dinner where they allegedly met said Biden briefly passed by to see an old friend. The Post reported in its story that Pozharskyi declined to comment, and he did not comment to a Politico journalist who reported extensively on the story a year later.[7]

c. The veracity of the Post's reporting was strongly questioned by most mainstream media outlets, analysts, and intelligence officials due to the unknown origin and chain of custody of the laptop and the provenance of its contents and due to suspicion that it may have been used as part of a disinformation campaign by Russian intelligence or its proxies.[10][11][12]

d. On October 14, 2020, the New York Post published articles containing purported emails of unknown authorship which suggested that Hunter Biden provided an "opportunity" to Vadym Pozharskyi, an advisor to the board of Burisma, to meet his father, then-Vice President Joe Biden.[15][16][17] Joe Biden stated in September 2019 that he had never spoken to his son about his foreign business dealings.[18] His presidential campaign denied such a meeting took place and stated the New York Post had never contacted them "about the critical elements of this story".[19] Michael Carpenter, Vice President Biden's foreign policy adviser in 2015, told The Washington Post that he had accompanied Biden during all of his meetings about Ukraine and that, "He never met with [Pozharskyi]." He added, "In fact, I had never heard of this guy until the New York Post story broke."[20] One of the purported emails showed Pozharskyi saying he would share information with Amos Hochstein, a State Department advisor close to Vice President Biden, though Hochstein stated, "The Republican Senate investigation subpoenaed all my records, including emails and calendars and found no mention of this man. I led the US energy efforts in Ukraine and never even heard of him before yesterday."[21] The New York Post published images and PDF copies of the alleged emails, but their authenticity and origin have not been determined.[22] According to an investigation by The New York Times, editors at the New York Post "pressed staff members to add their bylines to the story", and at least one refused, in addition to the original author, reportedly because of a lack of confidence in its credibility. Of the two writers eventually credited on the article, the second did not know her name was attached to it until after The Post published it.[23] In its opening sentence, the New York Post story misleadingly asserted "the elder Biden pressured government officials in Ukraine into firing a prosecutor who was investigating" Burisma, despite the fact that Shokin had not pursued an investigation into Burisma's founder.[20] The opening sentence also misleadingly stated that Hunter Biden introduced his father to Pozharskyi, but the purported email from Pozharskyi only mentioned an invitation and "opportunity" for the men to meet.[24][25]


I could go on and on and on quoting from the highly detailed, documented Wikipedia article but tell me again why I should read that NY Post article?

If I wrote an article about you full of inaccuracies, would you want anyone recommending to someone else to read that article? Like it has truth just because it was written?
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:40 am

In the time that took, you could have sampled some of the actual content from the laptop.
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 02, 2022 11:05 am

It's really hard to know what to think. Definitely dispiriting to learn that hackers can even forge time stamps and cryptographic signatures (whatever those are).

Hunter's laptop reminds me of the bible- it was messed with for years by people other than the original owner/author before the general public ever got to lay eyes on it.
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by vnatale » Fri Sep 02, 2022 11:11 am

I Shrugged wrote:
Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:40 am

In the time that took, you could have sampled some of the actual content from the laptop.


If we stipulate any of it is true and not subject to questioning its credibility or validity ....

What is in there that DIRECTLY incriminates Biden, the father?

Since you have asked me sample the content I assume you are familiar with it and can produce the direct evidence from it?
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Sep 02, 2022 11:46 am

vnatale wrote:
Fri Sep 02, 2022 11:11 am
I Shrugged wrote:
Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:40 am
In the time that took, you could have sampled some of the actual content from the laptop.
If we stipulate any of it is true and not subject to questioning its credibility or validity ....

What is in there that DIRECTLY incriminates Biden, the father?

Since you have asked me sample the content I assume you are familiar with it and can produce the direct evidence from it?
Might as well just wait for the hearings.
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by vnatale » Mon Sep 12, 2022 10:03 am

Whether or not Trump can get re-elected depends upon how well (or poorly) Republicans do overall in November 2022.

I have stated for decades that no "pro-life" Republican would ever do anything regarding abortion that could cost them a single vote. Prior they could be "pro-life" all they wanted when it did not mean anything with Roe v Wage in place. It was all theoretical. Now that Roe v Wade is no longer in place and being "pro-life" means taking an actual position that means something .... many Republicans are demonstrating what I'd been saying. No longer being as "pro-life" as they'd had been so as to not lose votes.

Who is going to be more motivated to vote in November 2022? Those who are pro-life or those who are for choice? The pro-life ones have not had anything taken away from them. If they do not believe in abortions -- they don't have to have one. However, those who believe they should be able to make the choice ... this is a decision that has directly affected them.

Put it this way. It's possible that I may be the only one here who is not an alcohol drinker. Let's say there was a Prohibition II movement. Let's say I supported it. Who is more likely to come out to vote? Me and all the other non-drinkers who support it with its passage not really at all directly affecting our lives? Or, all of you who would be directly impacted by this new Prohibition?

For many conservative, Republican voters abortion has made them a single issue voter and why they will never vote for the Democratic candidate. The below illustrates how many of their "pro-life" Republicans are not "pro-life" when it comes down to it. As usual they are "pro-whatever-gets-me-elected".




https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... andidates/

THE FIX
The most telling GOP flip-flops and walk backs on abortion
Image without a caption
Analysis by Aaron Blake
Staff writer
September 10, 2022 at 8:35 a.m. EDT

It has pretty much become abundantly clear that the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade has created at least a momentary political problem for Republicans.

Democrats have repeatedly overperformed in special elections since then, and they’ve also gained in the “generic ballot” of the 2022 midterm election, raising doubts about the GOP’s hopes of winning both the House and Senate. Republicans are also in the position of accounting for what the party will do now that the Supreme Court no longer prevents them from banning abortion — something that was a powerful issue in the abstract but is considerably more fraught now.

And perhaps nothing drives home the difficulty of that position like the flip-flops and walk backs by some key Republicans. Below are some of the biggest reversals on this issue of late.


1. Scott Jensen
Before: The Minnesota gubernatorial candidate said in March, while vying for the GOP nomination, “I would try to ban abortion.” A month later, he was even stronger, making it a promise. Responding to Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) claim that Jensen and his running mate supported banning abortions, Jensen said: “No kidding, Sherlock. You’re darn right we do.” He added: “We’re going to get something done when we’re governor: We’re going to ban abortions. That’s really not news.”

Now: Jensen this week began running an ad stating: “In Minnesota, [abortion] is a protected constitutional right, and no governor can change that. And I’m not running to do that.” Jensen’s website has also changed its language on this issue. It previously said Jensen “believes in the sanctity of human life, from conception to natural death,” but it has now excised the “from conception to natural death” language.
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Re: Trump reelection bid

Post by dualstow » Wed Sep 14, 2022 6:41 am

🚧 Alcohol and Nutrition split off to its own thread
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=12724&p=243841#p243841
/ DS 🚧
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