What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by jalanlong » Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:24 pm

Kbg wrote:
Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:59 am


Personally, I think school shootings is a serious threat to the 2nd amendment and anyone serious about wanting to preserve their right to arms should get engaged. If it keeps happening at some point, the majority is going to say enough is enough.
“Keeps happening” is a bit of a misnomer as school shootings are extremely rare occurrences. The annual odds that an American child will die in a mass shooting at school are nearly 10 million to 1, about the odds of being killed by lightning or of dying in an earthquake. Those are also about the same odds that any American will die in a mass public shooting like the recent one in Buffalo. School shootings are also down from the 1990s. The avg American would certainly not guess that.

There will always be calls to “do something.” If all of the “common sense” restrictions that Matthew McConaughey asked for were all passed tomorrow, when the next school shooting occurs will the public say “ well we passed all those common sense gun laws. I guess we will just have to live with these random tragedies”? Or will they once again call for even more restrictions??
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by dualstow » Sun Jun 19, 2022 8:23 am

jalanlong wrote:
Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:24 pm
school shootings are extremely rare occurrences. The annual odds that an American child will die in a mass shooting at school are nearly 10 million to 1,
I think this is one of those cases in which the math is not going to sway anyone:

-School shootings used to be zero.
- It’s not a force of nature. These are not earthquakes or lightning strikes. Which triggers more of an emotional reaction: that a truck overturned and some goods were spoiled by the side of the road? - or - that someone in California stole the same amount of good because they knew they could get away with it?
- The victims are kids which, again, used to be safe in schools.

However, I certainly agree with you on the repeating cycle of calls to do something.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by jalanlong » Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:52 am

“The victims are kids which, again, used to be safe in schools.”

Well statistically they are safe in schools at least from random shootings. The list of things that are more common causes of childhood deaths is quite long…car accidents, drowning, choking, cancer. If you want to focus on schools, children statistically are much more likely to die in an auto accident on the way to/from school than they are from a random school shooting. They are also more likely to die participating in school sports. None of which do people seem concerned with at all. But then again if your baseline is zero, then yes nobody is safe from anything anywhere.

But risk analysis is not citizens (nor politicians) strong suit. It was the same with Covid. If you fear the infinitesimal chance your healthy child will get Covid and die, then why on earth do you ever let them anywhere near a pool, ocean or lake?
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by glennds » Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:02 am

jalanlong wrote:
Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:24 pm
School shootings are also down from the 1990s. The avg American would certainly not guess that.

The data suggests your statement is nonsense.

Note the 2022 data is only through May. Annualized it looks pretty consistent with 2020.

More information can be found at: https://www.chds.us/ssdb/charts-graphs/. You will find charts here that present incident volume as well as number of victims.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by jalanlong » Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:24 am

glennds wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:02 am
jalanlong wrote:
Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:24 pm
School shootings are also down from the 1990s. The avg American would certainly not guess that.

The data suggests your statement is nonsense.

Note the 2022 data is only through May. Annualized it looks pretty consistent with 2020.

More information can be found at: https://www.chds.us/ssdb/charts-graphs/. You will find charts here that present incident volume as well as number of victims.
You have to define school shooting. Most of the data you are quoting is using situations we don’t normally think of as a school shooting. For example, gang activity at a school football game that often doesn’t even involve actual students at the school.


This study analyzed “school shooting” incidents and found “The incidents, although not unimportant, include shootings at college campuses or such occurrences as suicide attempts, evening altercations on school grounds between adults with no connection to the school.”

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10 ... 20.1846458
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by vnatale » Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:49 am

dualstow wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 8:23 am

jalanlong wrote:
Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:24 pm

school shootings are extremely rare occurrences. The annual odds that an American child will die in a mass shooting at school are nearly 10 million to 1,


I think this is one of those cases in which the math is not going to sway anyone:

-School shootings used to be zero.
- It’s not a force of nature. These are not earthquakes or lightning strikes. Which triggers more of an emotional reaction: that a truck overturned and some goods were spoiled by the side of the road? - or - that someone in California stole the same amount of good because they knew they could get away with it?
- The victims are kids which, again, used to be safe in schools.

However, I certainly agree with you on the repeating cycle of calls to do something.


Before the automobile was invented death (and significant injury to children) were zero. Since the invention of the automobile being in one is now 90% safer .... yet death by automobile is the #1 cause of death to children. But because they are all spread out geographically it does not trigger the same national emotional reaction ... though it triggers a tremendous emotional reaction in those directly affected by these tragedies to children.

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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by Xan » Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:50 am

vnatale wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:49 am
Before the automobile was invented death (and significant injury to children) were zero.
That's totally false: deaths as a result of transportation, such as falling off a horse, in front of a horse, hitting your head on a tree while riding, were fairly common.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by glennds » Sun Jun 19, 2022 11:16 am

vnatale wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:49 am


Before the automobile was invented death (and significant injury to children) were zero. Since the invention of the automobile being in one is now 90% safer .... yet death by automobile is the #1 cause of death to children. But because they are all spread out geographically it does not trigger the same national emotional reaction ... though it triggers a tremendous emotional reaction in those directly affected by these tragedies to children.
Vinny, I prefer to think of it like an equation. Casualty is an unfortunate cost to the incalculable benefits of efficient transportation. Our society simply could not exist without vehicular transportation, with the possible exception of some places that have robust public transport. Safety measures have helped reduce that casualty cost, but it's still an equation where the benefits outweigh the costs by a staggering amount.

School shootings are tragic and reprehensible. It's for each person to decide whether they are an acceptable cost to some perceived larger benefit. From what I can tell most people are in favor of some incremental measure, think of how seat belts and air bags were introduced to cars to try to improve the ratio rather than trying to take the numerator to zero.

It's also a problem that tragedies are not fungible. A kindergartner being blown apart by a high velocity assault rifle is asymmetrically reprehensible to most of us when compared to an adult victim. Children, elderly and the infirmed are the most vulnerable segments of our society. School shootings like Columbine, Newtown and Uvalde are uniquely troubling "gun violence" incidents.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by dualstow » Sun Jun 19, 2022 2:07 pm

^ Yes, what glennds said. Tragedies are not fungible ^

Another non-statistical point: I get when it’s a slow news year and journalists start reporting on shark attacks because there’s nothing else to talk about. And, suddenly it seems like the sharks have gotten really vicious, when they haven’t. The statistics probably would say things haven’t changed much. Some people will avoid swimming in the ocean, especially where there were attacks. Others won’t.

Kids, on the other hand, have to go to school every weekday. They shouldn’t have to feel that they’re in danger of getting shot. Shouldn’t have to wonder if the guy doodling bloody scenes in his next notebook is the next shooter or if he’s just, well, my little brother in the 1970s (it was a phase. He turned out fine).

Imagine a guy coming in with a nice jacket and tie telling the class,“Don’t worry, kids. The odds are astronomical that this will happen to you.” That’s not going to have as much as an effect as reports of all the shootings that “keep happening.” And that stress is a real cost. They know that they might die in a vehicular accident on the way home, but there’s no stress there.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by vnatale » Sun Jun 19, 2022 6:17 pm

Xan wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:50 am

vnatale wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:49 am
Before the automobile was invented death (and significant injury to children) were zero.


That's totally false: deaths as a result of transportation, such as falling off a horse, in front of a horse, hitting your head on a tree while riding, were fairly common.


Thanks for pointing out a significant phrase I'd intended to write but somehow missed. I thought and was supposed to have written:

Before the automobile was invented death and significant injury to children due to automobile accidents were zero.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by vnatale » Sun Jun 19, 2022 6:24 pm

glennds wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 11:16 am

vnatale wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:49 am



Before the automobile was invented death (and significant injury to children) were zero. Since the invention of the automobile being in one is now 90% safer .... yet death by automobile is the #1 cause of death to children. But because they are all spread out geographically it does not trigger the same national emotional reaction ... though it triggers a tremendous emotional reaction in those directly affected by these tragedies to children.


Vinny, I prefer to think of it like an equation. Casualty is an unfortunate cost to the incalculable benefits of efficient transportation. Our society simply could not exist without vehicular transportation, with the possible exception of some places that have robust public transport. Safety measures have helped reduce that casualty cost, but it's still an equation where the benefits outweigh the costs by a staggering amount.

School shootings are tragic and reprehensible. It's for each person to decide whether they are an acceptable cost to some perceived larger benefit. From what I can tell most people are in favor of some incremental measure, think of how seat belts and air bags were introduced to cars to try to improve the ratio rather than trying to take the numerator to zero.

It's also a problem that tragedies are not fungible. A kindergartner being blown apart by a high velocity assault rifle is asymmetrically reprehensible to most of us when compared to an adult victim. Children, elderly and the infirmed are the most vulnerable segments of our society. School shootings like Columbine, Newtown and Uvalde are uniquely troubling "gun violence" incidents.


All well stated. But I keep coming back to all the money that is advocated being spent on school protection (hardening schools, hiring armed security guards) means that that money is NOT spent on actually educating children.

As a nation are we better off with worsening our education for almost the entire country in an attempt to possibly
prevent an extremely rare event? Something that happens, on the average, once every two years?

I also keep coming back to my basic equation. For ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL the equation is:

Death / injury by gun violence = # of guns in country + freedom in country - regulation of guns.

There will simply be more incidents of the left side of the equation the higher the first two inputs are and the lower the third input is. Hold the second two constant while increasing the first leads to more and more incidents on an absolute basis.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by vnatale » Sun Jun 19, 2022 6:27 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 2:07 pm

^ Yes, what glennds said. Tragedies are not fungible ^

Another non-statistical point: I get when it’s a slow news year and journalists start reporting on shark attacks because there’s nothing else to talk about. And, suddenly it seems like the sharks have gotten really vicious, when they haven’t. The statistics probably would say things haven’t changed much. Some people will avoid swimming in the ocean, especially where there were attacks. Others won’t.

Kids, on the other hand, have to go to school every weekday. They shouldn’t have to feel that they’re in danger of getting shot. Shouldn’t have to wonder if the guy doodling bloody scenes in his next notebook is the next shooter or if he’s just, well, my little brother in the 1970s (it was a phase. He turned out fine).

Imagine a guy coming in with a nice jacket and tie telling the class,“Don’t worry, kids. The odds are astronomical that this will happen to you.” That’s not going to have as much as an effect as reports of all the shootings that “keep happening.” And that stress is a real cost. They know that they might die in a vehicular accident on the way home, but there’s no stress there.


Regarding your last paragraph. Could not the solution be to teach children critical thinking at an early age? To attempt to intelligently evaluate facts rather the respond to them strictly with their emotions?

It's obvious that the majority of our populace lacks critical thinking otherwise all the political ads would not almost always be aimed at the emotions.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by dualstow » Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:59 pm

Sure, but I think it’s a bit late for that. This is the age of identity, not facts. (And it sucks).
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by flyingpylon » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:58 am

Article by Joseph Mercola in The Epoch Times (and yes I know those are automatic disqualifiers for some):

97.8 Percent of Mass Shootings Are Linked to This

The title is a reference to gun-free zones and the article also discusses the surge in anti-depressants and violent video games in recent decades. Just throwing it out there for additional things to consider since guns have been around far longer than school shootings.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by Mountaineer » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:24 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:58 am
Article by Joseph Mercola in The Epoch Times (and yes I know those are automatic disqualifiers for some):

97.8 Percent of Mass Shootings Are Linked to This

The title is a reference to gun-free zones and the article also discusses the surge in anti-depressants and violent video games in recent decades. Just throwing it out there for additional things to consider since guns have been around far longer than school shootings.
Good point.

I think it’s time to repeat myself. 😉

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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jun 20, 2022 4:07 pm

Here is a thoughtful article written by Bret Weinstein, a genuinely lifelong liberal albeit a gun owner. Naturally it covers a lot of what we've discussed here. The horror of mass shootings, the 2nd amendment, self defense when police are standing down, tyrannies, the people vs the military, Australia, you name it. His belief is that private gun rights come with staggering costs, but those rights are still essential.

He has one unique perspective that probably none of us do. He was the object of the anger of an unruly mob, and the police stood aside. I expect that something like that would make an impression. I bet that 20 years ago he would never have been able to imagine such a scenario for himself and his family, just as we likely cannot.

https://unherd.com/2021/11/the-liberal- ... nership-1/
It’s not that I don’t see the terrible carnage which comes from ubiquitous guns. I do see it, and I detest it just like every other decent American. I know that a single deranged or careless person can rob us of anyone, at any time. No American is exempt. Not our families, nor our leaders. It is a terrifying realisation. With modern weapons an individual can kill dozens. It has happened many times, and it will happen again.

I find none of this remotely acceptable as a human, or an American. Remember, I said at the beginning that I believe that the liberals are basically right about the staggering cost of ubiquitous guns. Further, I don’t believe the net effect of ubiquitous guns during an average year, or decade, or century is a reduction in harm. It’s a complex picture, but many Western nations have managed crime as well or better than the US without the population being armed. On long timescales, however, I suspect this trend reverses. A nation’s descent into tyranny can kill millions, and it can drag continents, or the world as a whole, into war.

The terrifying carnage that derives from the right to bear arms must, in the end, be compared to the cost of not having that right, not only for the individual, but for the republic and its neighbours at a minimum.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by Jack Jones » Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:49 pm

Desert wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:01 pm
And certainly any Christian should be more concerned with the body count than their own fixation with gun ownership. We'll need something other than Jesus to defend our gun obsession.
Jesus wouldn’t own a gun. Christians shouldn’t be concerned with self defense, IMO.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by joypog » Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:15 pm

Jack Jones wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:49 pm
Desert wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:01 pm
And certainly any Christian should be more concerned with the body count than their own fixation with gun ownership. We'll need something other than Jesus to defend our gun obsession.
Jesus wouldn’t own a gun. Christians shouldn’t be concerned with self defense, IMO.
Was this toungue in cheek?

I'm pretty hard on American Christendom (while not being blanket anti-religious) and I wouldn't even make that sort of theological claim. (After all, Peter still had a sword in the garden.)

(as an aside, the evangelical hyper-aggressive defensive posture has damaged their witness. They have been gaining political power over the past decade but at the cost of their religious and moral authority.)
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by Xan » Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:21 pm

You're not the only critic of American Christendom. You might enjoy Has American Christianity Failed?
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by vnatale » Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:09 pm

Jack Jones wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:49 pm

Desert wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:01 pm

And certainly any Christian should be more concerned with the body count than their own fixation with gun ownership. We'll need something other than Jesus to defend our gun obsession.


Jesus wouldn’t own a gun. Christians shouldn’t be concerned with self defense, IMO.


FIRST ARTICLE

Would Jesus Use a Handgun or an Assault Weapon?

https://crcc.usc.edu/jesus-guns/

When are Christians going to demonstrate their commitment to human life by fighting for limits on the type and availability of weapons in this country?

As evidenced by media glorifications of violence in movies, television and the news cycle, and the popularity of hyper-violent video games, I can only conclude that violence is as much a core American value as individualism or freedom. Certainly the Constitution guarantees the right of Americans to bear arms, but make no mistake, the purpose of a gun is to kill. Guns may wound or maim, but their purpose is to kill. Nonetheless, there are more regulations on vehicle ownership and operation—and on the purchase of allergy medication—than there are for buying a gun.

The horrors of the Newtown tragedy, and even more recent shootings, have launched a national conversation about controlling access to certain types of guns. The American faith community now has the opportunity to step up and become a voice for reducing violence, and thus demonstrate that they truly value each life. Â For many years we have heard the demands for the protection of the unborn—often at the expense of the living—from some segments within the Christian church. But if we are really for life, I must ask where is the cacophony of voices for stricter gun control laws to protect the lives of the living? I say enough is enough! Would Jesus use a handgun or an assault weapon? Neither! “For God so loved the world” that God gave us a Son who used no weapons.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by vnatale » Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:14 pm

Jack Jones wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:49 pm

Desert wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:01 pm

And certainly any Christian should be more concerned with the body count than their own fixation with gun ownership. We'll need something other than Jesus to defend our gun obsession.


Jesus wouldn’t own a gun. Christians shouldn’t be concerned with self defense, IMO.


SECOND ARTICLE

Does Jesus Want Gun-Toting Christians?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/does-jesu ... christians

“It is quite clear that Jesus was teaching in a context where many of his Jewish contemporaries wanted the nation to rise up in an armed rebellion against Rome,” Sider tells me, but “Jesus clearly says, I don’t want my disciples to kill; I want them to love their enemies” (Matt. 5:44).

“As a Christian,” he clarifies, “my position on guns is not a reflection on particular verses but the overall Jesus narrative. In both the gospels and the New Testament letters the self-giving love of Jesus to the point of death defines faithful Christian ethics. Devoting oneself to instruments designed for the purpose of taking human life is a non-Christian practice.”

For example, when asked what Sider would do if an intruder threatened the life of his family, he said that while he thought such a situation would be extremely rare, he would have to follow Jesus’s command for nonviolence and trust God.

“In a situation, where somebody was threatening to kill my wife or children, I would pray fervently. I would express love to the person, and I would say, ‘In the name of the risen Jesus, Lord of history, I command you to stop.’ And if I died, and my family died, I would trust that would be a better outcome than my trying to kill such a person.”
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by Xan » Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:37 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:09 pm
For many years we have heard the demands for the protection of the unborn—often at the expense of the living—from some segments within the Christian church. But if we are really for life, I must ask where is the cacophony of voices for stricter gun control laws to protect the lives of the living?
Wikipedia says in 2019 (most recent data) there were 629,898 abortions performed in the US. CDC says that in 2019 there were 39,707 gun deaths. 40% of those were suicides; you can count those or not as you like. Either way, if you care about life, you have a much bigger problem with the former issue than the latter, no?
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by vnatale » Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:45 pm

Xan wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:37 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:09 pm
For many years we have heard the demands for the protection of the unborn—often at the expense of the living—from some segments within the Christian church. But if we are really for life, I must ask where is the cacophony of voices for stricter gun control laws to protect the lives of the living?


Wikipedia says in 2019 (most recent data) there were 629,898 abortions performed in the US. CDC says that in 2019 there were 39,707 gun deaths. 40% of those were suicides; you can count those or not as you like. Either way, if you care about life, you have a much bigger problem with the former issue than the latter, no?


The difference is that there is ZERO dispute that killing by gun is taking the life of a living being.

There is considerable disagreement whether or not an abortion is taking the life of a living being.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by Xan » Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:54 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Xan wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:09 pm
For many years we have heard the demands for the protection of the unborn—often at the expense of the living—from some segments within the Christian church. But if we are really for life, I must ask where is the cacophony of voices for stricter gun control laws to protect the lives of the living?
Wikipedia says in 2019 (most recent data) there were 629,898 abortions performed in the US. CDC says that in 2019 there were 39,707 gun deaths. 40% of those were suicides; you can count those or not as you like. Either way, if you care about life, you have a much bigger problem with the former issue than the latter, no?
The difference is that there is ZERO dispute that killing by gun is taking the life of a living being.

There is considerable disagreement whether or not an abortion is taking the life of a living being.
Not in the context of the author's perplexed wondering. He's granting their base position, that an unborn baby is alive, and saying even if that were true, why don't they care as much about these other lives? And the answer is because there are at least 15 times as many abortions as all gun deaths.
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Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Post by Jack Jones » Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:22 am

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:14 pm
Jack Jones wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:49 pm
Desert wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:01 pm
And certainly any Christian should be more concerned with the body count than their own fixation with gun ownership. We'll need something other than Jesus to defend our gun obsession.
Jesus wouldn’t own a gun. Christians shouldn’t be concerned with self defense, IMO.
SECOND ARTICLE

Does Jesus Want Gun-Toting Christians?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/does-jesu ... christians

“It is quite clear that Jesus was teaching in a context where many of his Jewish contemporaries wanted the nation to rise up in an armed rebellion against Rome,” Sider tells me, but “Jesus clearly says, I don’t want my disciples to kill; I want them to love their enemies” (Matt. 5:44).

“As a Christian,” he clarifies, “my position on guns is not a reflection on particular verses but the overall Jesus narrative. In both the gospels and the New Testament letters the self-giving love of Jesus to the point of death defines faithful Christian ethics. Devoting oneself to instruments designed for the purpose of taking human life is a non-Christian practice.”

For example, when asked what Sider would do if an intruder threatened the life of his family, he said that while he thought such a situation would be extremely rare, he would have to follow Jesus’s command for nonviolence and trust God.

“In a situation, where somebody was threatening to kill my wife or children, I would pray fervently. I would express love to the person, and I would say, ‘In the name of the risen Jesus, Lord of history, I command you to stop.’ And if I died, and my family died, I would trust that would be a better outcome than my trying to kill such a person.”
Yes, this is how I understand it as well.
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