Gyroscopic Investing

glennds wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:28 am

vnatale wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:04 am

seajay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:20 am
What with the starvation, and now more recent invasion by a vile terrorist neighbour, I'm certain that Ukraine deeply regrets having ever believed Russian promises when it surrendered its nukes.

Caught twice, one would expect Ukraine to never be caught out again. Can't see how a negotiated settlement might ever be agreed when one side is so openly a repeated liar/abuser.

I recently heard that Ukraine would have never had had the capability to maintain a nuclear arsenal.

This wouldn't surprise me. I've also read there would have been international repercussions for UKR refusing to disarm. Presumably trade restrictions.
However, in a world that wants to move toward disarmament, what message does it send to other countries that once they disarm they can end up in the same predicament as UKR? This whole episode is a poster child for more armament.

vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:51 am

The question is if you can disarm if you really never had the capability in the first place.

Those bombs were located in their country geographically but were they ever able to actually use them prior to giving them up?

seajay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 2:27 pm A concern is the starting of a new weapons race, where nukes are old-hat. Simple vertical launch missiles that inject a deadly virus into the jet stream that traverses the world to end all life as we know it. Assured mutual destruction, but where the proliferation is more inclined to see accidents. Maybe 'intelligent' life is so rare across the universe because really its quite dumb, survives for just a brief flash in universal scale terms.

glennds wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:28 am

seajay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:20 am What with the starvation, and now more recent invasion by a vile terrorist neighbour, I'm certain that Ukraine deeply regrets having ever believed Russian promises when it surrendered its nukes.

Caught twice, one would expect Ukraine to never be caught out again. Can't see how a negotiated settlement might ever be agreed when one side is so openly a repeated liar/abuser.

Not to mention the US and UK security guarantees that were part of the 1992 agreement. Makes you wonder how any country can rely on any agreement when the counterparty cites change in change in President as a basis to renege.

SilentMajority wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 10:05 am

seajay wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 9:48 am Putin is under time pressures and as such is likely to make a big push come the spring.

I would think the thawing ground and snow in spring would turn the landscape into a morass. Pretty sure any heavy rainfall in the April-May timeframe results in flooding. I think they call it General Mud.

I expect a major offensive in Jan. I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen by mid Feb at least.

SilentMajority wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:37 pm

glennds wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:28 am

seajay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:20 am What with the starvation, and now more recent invasion by a vile terrorist neighbour, I'm certain that Ukraine deeply regrets having ever believed Russian promises when it surrendered its nukes.

Caught twice, one would expect Ukraine to never be caught out again. Can't see how a negotiated settlement might ever be agreed when one side is so openly a repeated liar/abuser.

Not to mention the US and UK security guarantees that were part of the 1992 agreement. Makes you wonder how any country can rely on any agreement when the counterparty cites change in change in President as a basis to renege.

This is a very good point glennds, sincerely and truly.

Any nation that makes an agreement with a democracy is very foolish to expect it to be honored. Much safer and more reliable to choose non-democratic partners and alliances as they are more likely to honor agreements, lest their word count for nothing. The executive branch in the US is ultimately in control of our foreign relations and that changes hands every 4-8 years. No sense in making any long term agreements with the US gov't.

Dieter wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:39 pm

SilentMajority wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:37 pm

glennds wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:28 am

seajay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:20 am What with the starvation, and now more recent invasion by a vile terrorist neighbour, I'm certain that Ukraine deeply regrets having ever believed Russian promises when it surrendered its nukes.

Caught twice, one would expect Ukraine to never be caught out again. Can't see how a negotiated settlement might ever be agreed when one side is so openly a repeated liar/abuser.

Not to mention the US and UK security guarantees that were part of the 1992 agreement. Makes you wonder how any country can rely on any agreement when the counterparty cites change in change in President as a basis to renege.

This is a very good point glennds, sincerely and truly.

Any nation that makes an agreement with a democracy is very foolish to expect it to be honored. Much safer and more reliable to choose non-democratic partners and alliances as they are more likely to honor agreements, lest their word count for nothing. The executive branch in the US is ultimately in control of our foreign relations and that changes hands every 4-8 years. No sense in making any long term agreements with the US gov't.

A couple of thoughts

* the Russians also signed up to the agreement

* my understanding is that the agreement didn’t include any hard security guarantees (IIRC, the French and Germans didn’t want to antagonize the Russians)

So, yeah, either need a hard treaty or nukes.

SilentMajority wrote: ↑Tue Mar 07, 2023 6:01 am

Dieter wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:39 pm

SilentMajority wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:37 pm

glennds wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:28 am

seajay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:20 am
What with the starvation, and now more recent invasion by a vile terrorist neighbour, I'm certain that Ukraine deeply regrets having ever believed Russian promises when it surrendered its nukes.

Caught twice, one would expect Ukraine to never be caught out again. Can't see how a negotiated settlement might ever be agreed when one side is so openly a repeated liar/abuser.

Not to mention the US and UK security guarantees that were part of the 1992 agreement. Makes you wonder how any country can rely on any agreement when the counterparty cites change in change in President as a basis to renege.

This is a very good point glennds, sincerely and truly.

Any nation that makes an agreement with a democracy is very foolish to expect it to be honored. Much safer and more reliable to choose non-democratic partners and alliances as they are more likely to honor agreements, lest their word count for nothing. The executive branch in the US is ultimately in control of our foreign relations and that changes hands every 4-8 years. No sense in making any long term agreements with the US gov't.

A couple of thoughts

* the Russians also signed up to the agreement

* my understanding is that the agreement didn’t include any hard security guarantees (IIRC, the French and Germans didn’t want to antagonize the Russians)

So, yeah, either need a hard treaty or nukes.

Do you think the US government broke the treaty when they overthrew the elected government of the Ukraine in 2014?

Russia made an agreement with the legitimate government of the Ukraine, not the US-controlled one that took power via CIA supported revolution in 2014

One document, dated 23 March, refers to the presence of a small number of Western special forces operating inside Ukraine, without specifying their activities or location. The UK has the largest contingent (50), followed by Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).
Western governments typically refrain from commenting on such sensitive matters, but this detail is likely to be seized upon by Moscow, which has in recent months argued that it is not just confronting Ukraine, but Nato as well.

The U.S. has Penetrated Russian Intelligence

The U.S. has a much clearer picture of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning, according to the New York Times. American intelligence has been able to obtain daily real-time warnings on the timing of Moscow’s strikes and even its specific targets. By exposing which Russian agencies the United States knows the most about, the leak could change this, as Russia could potentially cut off the sources of information the U.S. was able to access.

Blast from Su-34 bomber shatters apartment windows, damages cars, leaves 20-meter crater in Belgorod; social media first blames Kyiv, until Moscow acknowledges mistake

I never knew any of this until reading it just now. Paints a totally different picture than the one you are always providing here. Ironic I was led to it from reading a baseball book: "The headline for Markovits’s story, which ran in 2020, was “How McKinsey Destroyed the Middle Class.” Reporters for the New York Times, Walt Bogdanich and Michael Forsythe, wrote a 2018 piece with a similarly striking title: “How McKinsey Has Helped Raise the Stature of Authoritarian Governments.” The investigation cited McKinsey’s work rehabilitating the image of Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, who has since been found guilty of treason, as well as other unsavory McKinsey engagements in countries like China and Saudi Arabia."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych

Yanukovych was elected president in 2010, defeating Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The election was judged free and fair by international observers.[5][6] In November 2013, a series of events started that led to his ousting as president.[7][8][9] Amid pressure from Russia,[10] Yanukovych suddenly changed his mind and rejected a pending association agreement with the EU, instead choosing to pursue closer ties with Russia and a Russian loan bailout. This sparked large protests by supporters of European integration, who occupied Kyiv's Independence Square and held rallies throughout Ukraine, in a wave of civil unrest dubbed the "Euromaidan". In January 2014, this developed into deadly clashes in Kyiv between protesters and Berkut special riot police.[11] There was severe violence in Kyiv on 18–20 February, when police snipers fired on protesters, killing almost 100.[12] On 21 February, Yanukovych and the parliamentary opposition signed an agreement to bring about an interim unity government, constitutional reforms and early elections.[13] Later that day, however, he secretly fled the capital for Kharkiv, claiming his car was shot at as he left Kyiv, and travelling next to Crimea, and eventually to exile in Russia.[14]

On 22 February 2014, the Ukrainian parliament voted to remove him from his post and schedule early elections on the grounds that he had withdrawn from his constitutional duties,[15][16] rather than through the impeachment process.[17][18][19][20] Two days later, the interim government issued a warrant for his arrest, accusing him of responsibility for "mass killing of civilians".[21] After his departure, Yanukovych held several press conferences, and declared himself to remain "the legitimate head of the Ukrainian state elected in a free vote by Ukrainian citizens".[22] On 18 June 2015, Yanukovych was officially deprived of the title of president by parliament.[23] On 24 January 2019, he was sentenced in absentia to thirteen years' imprisonment for high treason by a Ukrainian court.[24]

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2023 5:42 pm Russia’s air force accidentally bombs its own city

Blast from Su-34 bomber shatters apartment windows, damages cars, leaves 20-meter crater in Belgorod; social media first blames Kyiv, until Moscow acknowledges mistake

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russian-a ... -own-city/

Xan wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 3:58 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2023 5:42 pm Russia’s air force accidentally bombs its own city

Blast from Su-34 bomber shatters apartment windows, damages cars, leaves 20-meter crater in Belgorod; social media first blames Kyiv, until Moscow acknowledges mistake

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russian-a ... -own-city/

Why would they admit that?

Xan wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 3:58 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2023 5:42 pm Russia’s air force accidentally bombs its own city

Blast from Su-34 bomber shatters apartment windows, damages cars, leaves 20-meter crater in Belgorod; social media first blames Kyiv, until Moscow acknowledges mistake

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russian-a ... -own-city/

Why would they admit that?

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun Apr 23, 2023 1:50 pm ppnewbie: I don't know what information pollution is, but I find this to be a fascinating event.

Your guys conducted themselves bravely and finely, and with such men, you can become the world’s second-strongest army after Wagner,

A group of anti-Kremlin fighters .. stormed Russia’s Belgorod region bordering Ukraine .. in armoured vehicles.
…
Anti-Kremlin Russian groups have previously mounted operations within Russia but this appears to be the first in which the goal is to occupy territory.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 8:38 am
Drone attacks have hit residential Moscow!