Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:22 am

seajay wrote:
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:00 am
Whilst Russia will become increasingly more reliant upon China.
Ouch.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by seajay » Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:08 am

Kbg wrote:
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:09 am
Due to our Cold War perspective, I think it’s difficult for us to think of Russia as an imperial power. Obviously it was in the Czarist days but it was in the Communist days as well…it will be interesting to see if we are watching a “re” continuation of the break up that started in the 90s?

Must admit I’m not an optimist for post Putin Russia either…seems they have deep cultural challenges to embracing western style democracy.
Many like being told and supplied. You'll be educated here. Leave school and this is where you'll work, and this is the house/flat that you'll live in. Fall ill and go to this hospital. ...etc. The state provides all, and as long as you vocally support the state (and vote for the 'correct' leader in 'democratic voting') your benefits will continue. All hail the state. In contrast for them its a major challenge to adopt western style 'fend for yourself' culture. Ukraine is the East/West division line, with those in the East preferring the 'old ways' of the state providing all. Whilst the better off in the West like the higher standards of living (providing you've a good job etc.).

We pick at their bad aspects, but equally I suspect our (West) bad aspects are equally picked at by them. Personally I prefer the West as that was the culture in which I was raised, but I think I can appreciate why the likes of North Koreans idolize their leaders in the way that they do. Diversity is great, just a shame that some opt to attack others to try and impose their preference.

Some hope lies with China. Here in the UK some say that even if we reduced pollution to zero that would be offset by the equivalent of the entire UK's population number moving within China/India from the land (poor) into cities (middle class) every couple of years. Such economic migration induces greater toleration of both cultures. If/when more accept/understand both sides and the desire to destroy each other fades, so much the better. Unfortunately in the case of Russia that's been redirected away from convergence, back towards older-days/ways, where there's more likelihood of N and S Korea converging in toleration/appreciation of each other than there is for Russia to accept convergence with the West. At one point there was even talk about Russia possibly joining the European Union (most of its population actually live within continental Europe) - but now the prospects of such/similar look massively remote.

Unfortunately intolerance has only one possible final solution. Mutual destruction, and as more gain ever more powerful weapons so the doomsday clock ticks ever closer to midnight. Perhaps a common outcome, as otherwise I suspect we might have already detected intelligent life elsewhere within the universe.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by boglerdude » Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:31 pm

> The state provides all, and as long as you vocally support the state (and vote for the 'correct' leader in 'democratic voting') your benefits will continue

"covid" lockdown gave millions of Americans a taste of being paid to stay home, and they loved it, and they vote, and The Fed agreed to betray 2% inflation and print it.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:34 pm

Russia announces troop pullback from Ukraine’s Kharkiv area
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... f32827f577
The claim of a withdrawal to concentrate on Donetsk is similar to the justification Russia gave for pulling back its forces from the Kyiv region earlier this year when they failed to take the capital.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by seajay » Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:36 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:34 pm
Russia announces troop pullback from Ukraine’s Kharkiv area
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... f32827f577
The claim of a withdrawal to concentrate on Donetsk is similar to the justification Russia gave for pulling back its forces from the Kyiv region earlier this year when they failed to take the capital.
Kiev November through end of February barely sees a couple of hours of sunshine/day. Perhaps Putin is pulling most out to leave a token winter war running, primarily target infrastructure to make it a unpleasantly dark/cold winter, with a view of a round two come the start of spring of 2023, with much more preparation for a overwhelming rapid advance into Kiev to seize control within days.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:08 pm

Very well could be.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Sun Sep 11, 2022 8:07 pm

.
Last edited by Kbg on Sun Sep 11, 2022 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Sun Sep 11, 2022 8:07 pm

Never say never, but I would be completely shocked to see a Russian resurgence in the spring. The amount of verified equipment they’ve lost is astoundingly large. Continued missile strikes on infrastructure, I could see that because it’s “so” Russian. Modern weapons aren’t quick turn/build items…so there’s absolutely no way they would show back up in the spring with what they started with in February…or anything near it. Ukraine will and probably with even more by quite a bit than they started with.

Plus, while parts of the EU may want to cave, I don’t see the US, UK or most of Eastern Europe backing down in their support of Ukraine.

I guess Russia could double down on stupidity and maybe they will.

As a final point, good human beings can get stuck/forced into bad things by bad governments…so IMHO it is wise to make a distinction between the two. I’m referring to the government when I say Russian…but I’ll stand by my comments about bad political culture.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Sun Sep 11, 2022 9:20 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sun Sep 11, 2022 8:07 pm

Never say never, but I would be completely shocked to see a Russian resurgence in the spring. The amount of verified equipment they’ve lost is astoundingly large. Continued missile strikes on infrastructure, I could see that because it’s “so” Russian. Modern weapons aren’t quick turn/build items…so there’s absolutely no way they would show back up in the spring with what they started with in February…or anything near it. Ukraine will and probably with even more by quite a bit than they started with.

Plus, while parts of the EU may want to cave, I don’t see the US, UK or most of Eastern Europe backing down in their support of Ukraine.

I guess Russia could double down on stupidity and maybe they will.

As a final point, good human beings can get stuck/forced into bad things by bad governments…so IMHO it is wise to make a distinction between the two. I’m referring to the government when I say Russian…but I’ll stand by my comments about bad political culture.


Yet during World War II just shortly after Germany made great advances into the Soviet Union during the early parts of is war against the Soviet Union........the Soviet Union was able to relocate factories into part of the Soviet Union outside the reach of Germany and it was soon out-producing Germany.

Now the Soviet Union is not itself under attack and none of its factories have been destroyed.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Sun Sep 11, 2022 10:04 pm

Well Russia isn’t ramped up like that and the equipment is far more complex to build than WW2…Russia has a confirmed destroyed 1000+ tanks. That is years with a capital Y’s worth of production.

I used to do this stuff for a living and it is hard for me to wrap my head around that number.

WW 2 is in a class all by itself but some comparatives…

Us tanks lost in Vietnam 48

Yom Kippur war 400 Israel 2300 Arabs

Us army estimated to have 8000 in service and in storage total.

Before the war started Russia estimated to have 10k of which about 3000 could even be on the same battlefield as the Abrahms

Really at this point, Russia has to be very careful…they know that we know a Russia v NATO is no longer a match. (Nukes excepted of course.)

Who knows though…Putin has put himself in a very difficult position.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Sun Sep 11, 2022 10:31 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sun Sep 11, 2022 10:04 pm

Well Russia isn’t ramped up like that and the equipment is far more complex to build than WW2…Russia has a confirmed destroyed 1000+ tanks. That is years with a capital Y’s worth of production.

I used to do this stuff for a living and it is hard for me to wrap my head around that number.

WW 2 is in a class all by itself but some comparatives…

Us tanks lost in Vietnam 48

Yom Kippur war 400 Israel 2300 Arabs

Us army estimated to have 8000 in service and in storage total.

Before the war started Russia estimated to have 10k of which about 3000 could even be on the same battlefield as the Abrahms

Really at this point, Russia has to be very careful…they know that we know a Russia v NATO is no longer a match. (Nukes excepted of course.)

Who knows though…Putin has put himself in a very difficult position.


Referring to the 1,200 page book which led me to write the above:

"The Russians evacuated many industries from the areas overrun by the Germans, and during the war naturally expanded facilities and production in areas which were considered safe from the invaders....

"It was in these expanded and new factories ....turned out the tanks ....which enabled the Red Army to overwhelm the Germans.

"Standardizing on a series of very fine weapons, especially on heavy tanks .....the Soviet industrial system provided its troops with great volumes of weapons which were often qualitatively superior to the Germans as well."

"There cannot be any doubt that the Soviet Union both developed the most effective tanks and produced and fielder them in huge numbers."

From here I get this:

https://www.ww2-weapons.com/russian-vs- ... -in-ww-ii/

Undoubtedly, it was a long way for the T-34 that the Red Army could ultimately win WW2. However, the price was enormous, as about 44,000 T-34 tanks (or 82 per-cent of total production) was a total loss.

it is pointed out that German tank production amounted to only 26,900 tanks during WW2.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:28 am

Could we get back to the current war, please?
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:57 am

Yes, Russia has lost a lot of equipment...it will not be easy to replace it.
::)
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 12, 2022 11:04 am

Kbg wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:57 am
Yes, Russia has lost a lot of equipment...it will not be easy to replace it.
::)
It’s looking really good for the Ukrainians in the news. Let’s see if this turns out to be accurate.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Mon Sep 12, 2022 11:56 am

What I just read in a daily baseball (and other items) newsletter I receive:

Ukraine turns the tide
There have been some pretty startling � and good � �� developments in the Russia-Ukraine War over the past few days. I am hereby stealing this breakdown from the New York Times:

Ukrainian troops took the city of Izium in the country’s east from Russian forces, and made more gains in other regions, the military said.
The seizure was the latest triumph in a Ukrainian advance that has reshaped the war in just days.
Here’s where Russian forces are retreating in northeastern Ukraine; and
Once-vocal supporters of Russia’s invasion criticized President Vladimir Putin over the retreat.
And from the Washington Post:

“Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places,” reported the Institute for the Study of War, which closely tracks the conflict. They have captured more territory in the past five days “than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April,” its campaign assessment posted Sunday said.

The apparent collapse of the Russian forces has caused shock waves in Moscow.

I’ve been reading a hell of a lot of stuff about war of late, and one thing you can take away from any good account of war is that the situation as described in real time and the situation as it exists in reality are often very different things. Things cast as
”strategic retreats” are often full-blown routs and things often thought to be the latter are often the former. Even in the Internet and satellite age, the fog of war is very real and it’s often difficult to make sense of what has happened on the ground until a good while after it has happened.

Which is to say, I’m way too dumb and ill-informed to know if this is truly end-game-style meaningful or if it’s just a temporary bit of good news and that, eventually, Russia won’t clamp down and move forward again. But in these awful days in which we live it’s good to see aggression, repression, and autocracy take it in the balls, even if it’s only for the time being.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:24 pm

I was very pleasantly surprised and it IS a significant roll back/defeat for the Russians.

Generally those "in the biz" break things up into tactical, operational and strategic levels as they look at, analyze and plan things.

Tactically you could see things changing around 2 months ago...longer range ground launched PGMs have made a significant difference and have taken away Russia's former artillery advantage. And frankly, the Ukrainians have proven themselves to just be better fighters. I attribute it to good training and advisement which has been going on for almost a decade by western armies, shear grit/courage, motivation and the home field advantage. Finally, they've been very smart about how they have fought. While they haven't been able to chose the battles until now, they've fought to their strengths and avoided doing really stupid stuff. You would be surprised at how important avoiding stupid stuff is in a war.

Operationally...this is a definite win for Ukraine. Their last operational win was simply holding on in Feb/Mar to fight another day.

Strategically, still a toss up...and unfortunately, Russia probably still determines the war's ultimate outcome. If they decide not to quit, it will go on for as long as they want it to given their size and resources.

It's completely semantics...so bare with me in the analogy and don't get stuck on the words. The US was not defeated in Afghanistan, it decided to quit. (Certainly that's a win for the other side as the cost was no longer worth the potential gain for the loser.) The point being, the larger more powerful side could definitely have continued for much longer if it had chosen to.

Imagine you are watching a world poker championship game with just a few players left...this is where a player is spending a lot of time spinning a chip in their fingers and thinking about what to do next. Putin's that guy right now.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:34 pm

I don't see Putin giving up without first bombing Ukraine infrastructure into the ground. Energy, water and sewer, bridges, those sorts of things. There is so much more that he can do to make Ukraine unlivable. The problem would be selling that outcome to the Russian people. We hear that they support him and don't know what's really happening. But come on, it's 2022, even they have some exposure to unapproved information. The longer it goes on, I would think the more likely it is that his support diminishes.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:36 pm

I don't understand how Russia's supply logistics in eastern Ukraine are so precarious. It's on the border with Russia! Explain please.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:04 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:34 pm
We hear that they support him and don't know what's really happening. But come on, it's 2022, even they have some exposure to unapproved information. The longer it goes on, I would think the more likely it is that his support diminishes.
Yes, but check out the media link at the very top of this page.
Edit: the previous page.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:10 pm

Pug chief says we need the executive summary. :)
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:15 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:10 pm
Pug chief says we need the executive summary. :)
O0 I’m too lazy.
I guess the tl;dr is that Russians are by and large still brainwashed and willing to be brainwashed. They are just as intelligent as anyone in any other country, but … brainwashed.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:46 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:36 pm
I don't understand how Russia's supply logistics in eastern Ukraine are so precarious. It's on the border with Russia! Explain please.
The specifics require looking at a map...so let's skip that for now and make it more generic.

1. Good armies know how much "stuff" they need to do various types of activities

2. Armies need A LOT of stuff even when they are hardly doing anything...if they are actively fighting then they need even more

3. Army stuff tends to weigh a lot...which means you need big stuff movers and big roads that can handle big stuff movers

So that's the basics

Military stuff goes down roads and railroads that are called lines of communication or LOCs for short and they come in major and minor sizes. When major LOCs get cutoff then it become a lot harder to move the volume of stuff needed. If you've driven in a large city and a major road was closed or a couple of lanes were shut down you have an intrinsic feel of what happens. The side arteries can take some of the load off, but the bottom line is stuff stops moving or moves much slower.

If you combine stuff moves slower with #2 above you have a real problem on your hands militarily. You don't have your stuff and you now can't do your thing for lack of stuff.

Now for a little more specificity using the above as background to what is going on in Ukraine where the big gains are occurring...

The big LOCs run north to south in this area...the Ukrainian's offensive is moving west to east...if you are a Russian south of the Ukrainian offensive...your major LOC(s) have been cut and you have the real problem just described above...with an urgent need for even more stuff due to the big uptick in activity.

Now we diverge from you getting stuck in traffic (just wait it out) to the military problem...given you know quite precisely how much stuff you need to do military things and when you know you are not going to get it you can:

A) Sit in place, conserve as much as you can and hope you don't run out of stuff. This risks getting surrounded, defeated and losing everything.

B) Get out of Dodge as quickly as you can while saving as much as you can to fight another day. It's a given some stuff is going to be lost and is accepted.

The smart thing militarily is usually B...but sometimes you make some people do A so the majority of people can do B.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Sep 12, 2022 6:20 pm

Kbg wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:46 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:36 pm
I don't understand how Russia's supply logistics in eastern Ukraine are so precarious. It's on the border with Russia! Explain please.
The specifics require looking at a map...so let's skip that for now and make it more generic.

1. Good armies know how much "stuff" they need to do various types of activities

2. Armies need A LOT of stuff even when they are hardly doing anything...if they are actively fighting then they need even more

3. Army stuff tends to weigh a lot...which means you need big stuff movers and big roads that can handle big stuff movers

So that's the basics

Military stuff goes down roads and railroads that are called lines of communication or LOCs for short and they come in major and minor sizes. When major LOCs get cutoff then it become a lot harder to move the volume of stuff needed. If you've driven in a large city and a major road was closed or a couple of lanes were shut down you have an intrinsic feel of what happens. The side arteries can take some of the load off, but the bottom line is stuff stops moving or moves much slower.

If you combine stuff moves slower with #2 above you have a real problem on your hands militarily. You don't have your stuff and you now can't do your thing for lack of stuff.

Now for a little more specificity using the above as background to what is going on in Ukraine where the big gains are occurring...

The big LOCs run north to south in this area...the Ukrainian's offensive is moving west to east...if you are a Russian south of the Ukrainian offensive...your major LOC(s) have been cut and you have the real problem just described above...with an urgent need for even more stuff due to the big uptick in activity.

Now we diverge from you getting stuck in traffic (just wait it out) to the military problem...given you know quite precisely how much stuff you need to do military things and when you know you are not going to get it you can:

A) Sit in place, conserve as much as you can and hope you don't run out of stuff. This risks getting surrounded, defeated and losing everything.

B) Get out of Dodge as quickly as you can while saving as much as you can to fight another day. It's a given some stuff is going to be lost and is accepted.

The smart thing militarily is usually B...but sometimes you make some people do A so the majority of people can do B.
Thank you.
I guess the scale is surprising to me.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:32 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:43 pm
What makes you guys think any of the news on this is accurate? So much fake news everywhere, and well, Pravda.
I’m not sure if you’re referring to the Russians falling back or the media thing. If it’s the fallback, we can’t know for sure. Have to wait and see. Even the market reacted to it today — people are hopeful. Still, have to wait and see.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:09 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:32 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:43 pm
What makes you guys think any of the news on this is accurate? So much fake news everywhere, and well, Pravda.
I’m not sure if you’re referring to the Russians falling back or the media thing. If it’s the fallback, we can’t know for sure. Have to wait and see. Even the market reacted to it today — people are hopeful. Still, have to wait and see.
One spectator tip on wars...just watch the map. It doesn't lie. Sure there is lying, subterfuge, propaganda spin, deception, etc. on details...but the big picture is always pretty accurate. The scale is so large that it can't be covered up.

Last week when the "big southern" push was supposedly going on I personally was thinking..."this is not going well" because the map wasn't moving in a direction of success.
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