Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by ppnewbie » Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:54 am

Desert wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:25 am
Back to reality:

There are so many stories like this one, describing the brutality of Russia's invasion. Ol' Ronald Reagan was right about a few things when describing this culture.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61249158
We are going to keep seeing this. I call it war porn. It feels so good to be indignant and cry tears of sympathy.

But it’s much harder to say yeah you have the upper hand, we screwed up when we messed with a country right next to you. Let’s negotiate. Or we can threaten - if you don’t we will keep sending Ukranians in as cannon fodder and write sad stories about it. I know I’m beating a dead horse! ;)
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Desert » Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:02 am

Xan wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:29 am
Horrifying. One thing stood out:
The new inmates were put in uniforms and had their hair cut and were told they would be "vaccinated", which turned out to be a euphemism for a beating, Nikita said.
So Putin HAS been conducting a vaccination campaign!
Yeah, that part jumped out at me also. Ugly stuff.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by murphy_p_t » Tue May 03, 2022 11:19 am

Does the US dollar/ruble action serve as any kind of helpful indicator where this is going?
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Wed May 04, 2022 9:14 am

I wonder what Ad Orientem thinks about all this.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Desert » Wed May 04, 2022 11:57 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:14 am
I wonder what Ad Orientem thinks about all this.
Good question. It would be nice to have him back.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Tortoise » Wed May 04, 2022 12:49 pm

Desert wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 11:57 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:14 am
I wonder what Ad Orientem thinks about all this.
Good question. It would be nice to have him back.
Looks like he's posted about it on his blog, which is listed on his forum profile:

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com

The posts generally seem pro-Ukraine, anti-Putin.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Wed May 04, 2022 2:41 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 12:49 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:14 am
I wonder what Ad Orientem thinks about all this.
Looks like he's posted about it on his blog, which is listed on his forum profile:

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com

The posts generally seem pro-Ukraine, anti-Putin.
Ah, so he did! April 14th, at least. Thank you for that.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Tortoise » Wed May 04, 2022 3:57 pm

He has more posts about the war in Ukraine if you go past the first page and look at older posts, or even better, just search for the label "Ukraine":

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Wed May 04, 2022 7:16 pm

My one-degree-of-separation in Moscow just lost her Google Drive. I’m surprised it lasted this long but she was paying for Google Suite or whatever it’s called.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Desert » Thu May 05, 2022 8:30 am

Tortoise wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 3:57 pm
He has more posts about the war in Ukraine if you go past the first page and look at older posts, or even better, just search for the label "Ukraine":

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine
Ah, I'd forgotten he had the blog. Thanks Tortoise!
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Desert » Thu May 05, 2022 8:38 am

Fukuyama is always more optimistic than I think is warranted, but I have found his writing regarding Ukraine interesting.
First, the United States and its NATO allies, responding to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s pleas for military assistance, are now sending much larger quantities of equipment to Ukraine like long-range artillery, drones, and aircraft that will negate much of the Russian advantages in firepower. Though we do not know what Ukrainian losses have been to date, some speculate that Kyiv may now actually have parity in armored vehicles, leaving Moscow far short of the 3-1 size advantage typically needed for a successful offensive.

Russian morale is likely to continue to be extremely low. The units withdrawn from northern Ukraine were thrown right back into the Donbas battle without time to rest and regroup. They have taken huge losses in manpower and equipment to date, and apparently lost another couple of generals this past week. The Ukrainians are even more highly motivated to win, now that they have witnessed the atrocities carried out by the Russians in areas they have occupied.
https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fu ... -will-win/
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Thu May 05, 2022 10:12 am

This guy’s in the news lately. Very recently arrested.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Shariy
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Sun May 15, 2022 5:58 pm

Russia likely to have lost third of its Ukraine invasion force, says UK
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ce-says-uk

How long can Russia keep this up?
How long before they’ve stretched themselves too thin between Ukraine and Syria?
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Sun May 15, 2022 7:31 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun May 15, 2022 5:58 pm

Russia likely to have lost third of its Ukraine invasion force, says UK
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ce-says-uk

How long can Russia keep this up?
How long before they’ve stretched themselves too thin between Ukraine and Syria?


1/3????!!!

NO ONE would have ever predicted that going into the invasion.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by ppnewbie » Sun May 15, 2022 11:53 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sun May 15, 2022 7:31 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sun May 15, 2022 5:58 pm
Russia likely to have lost third of its Ukraine invasion force, says UK
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ce-says-uk

How long can Russia keep this up?
How long before they’ve stretched themselves too thin between Ukraine and Syria?
1/3????!!!

NO ONE would have ever predicted that going into the invasion.
My first instinct is to distrust reports like this.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Mon May 16, 2022 9:11 am

It's tough to get a good read on this stuff because it's pretty clear that we (western audiences) are getting all positive spin about Ukraine and all negative spin about Russia.

There are several good open and government sources that do map plots on where forces are at...to get a general sense of things look for expansion/contraction of blue and red on the map. Not perfect, but I've found it to be pretty good.

It's not going well for the Russians, there's no question about that. The Russians have lost the battles for Ukraine's largest two cities. So where the Ukrainians have focused their forces they are 2 and 0.

What I'm looking for as a significant tell is if Ukraine begins to roll back Russia significantly in the south and in the 2014 separatist areas. Ukraine really needs its coast line back and if they can't pull that off then ultimately the war could be a partial win for Russia.

I think by the fall we will have a pretty good idea how this is going to turn out (unless some unpredictable way wild pitch gets thrown by somebody).
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by ppnewbie » Mon May 16, 2022 10:00 am

Kbg wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 9:11 am
It's tough to get a good read on this stuff because it's pretty clear that we (western audiences) are getting all positive spin about Ukraine and all negative spin about Russia.

There are several good open and government sources that do map plots on where forces are at...to get a general sense of things look for expansion/contraction of blue and red on the map. Not perfect, but I've found it to be pretty good.

It's not going well for the Russians, there's no question about that. The Russians have lost the battles for Ukraine's largest two cities. So where the Ukrainians have focused their forces they are 2 and 0.

What I'm looking for as a significant tell is if Ukraine begins to roll back Russia significantly in the south and in the 2014 separatist areas. Ukraine really needs its coast line back and if they can't pull that off then ultimately the war could be a partial win for Russia.

I think by the fall we will have a pretty good idea how this is going to turn out (unless some unpredictable way wild pitch gets thrown by somebody).
Thanks Kbg. Very helpful.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Mountaineer » Mon May 16, 2022 10:23 am

Has anyone heard reliable confirmation that Putin has blood cancer? If true, I wonder how that impacts the war (yes, I know, it's likely just speculation)?

https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russias-v ... recording/
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Mon May 16, 2022 10:54 am

Mountaineer wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 10:23 am
Has anyone heard reliable confirmation that Putin has blood cancer? If true, I wonder how that impacts the war (yes, I know, it's likely just speculation)?

https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russias-v ... recording/
By himself, I don't think it will do much for a couple of reasons.

- Putin is held up by a power structure and that power structure is invested in itself as well. Thus, the policy line is likely to continue to not discredit the power structure.

- Let's say Putin does go and the next leader/crew takes over, they would be making the decision to be the "loser" in the war which as a general rule never goes down well domestically anywhere.

- On the flipside, him leaving does provide whomever a fall guy.

I'm not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing (probably both), but I'm beginning to feel the war only ends with a clear defeat on the battlefield and most of that is likely due to Ukraine's take on things. I don't think the atrocities are fake and I think Ukraine understands they will never be secure going back to status quo...so just as well decide this thing once and for all win or lose as losing isn't likely to be too much worse then where they are at right now. Finally, I think the west is all in on the war and it knows it has to be up to an including dealing with nuclear weapons if Putin goes there. This provides a huge, most likely one time shot, at having this much collective support.

Henry Kissinger has been hitting the rounds lately and he's worth listening to on this stuff. It's kinda painful because he is really old, forms his thoughts and speaks slowly but mentally he's definitely still there and is one of the few remaining statesmen who used to eat situations like this for breakfast on a daily basis (e.g. nuclear weapons, geopolitics and geostrategy).
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by ppnewbie » Mon May 16, 2022 11:13 am

More excellent analysis kbg.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon May 16, 2022 11:34 am

Nordic nations ever closer to joining NATO.
Kbg wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 10:54 am

Henry Kissinger has been hitting the rounds lately and he's worth listening to on this stuff. It's kinda painful because he is really old, forms his thoughts and speaks slowly but mentally he's definitely still there and is one of the few remaining statesmen who used to eat situations like this for breakfast on a daily basis (e.g. nuclear weapons, geopolitics and geostrategy).
Why listen to him when you can read him -
LINK (

Code: Select all

https://www.ft.com/content/cd88912d-506a-41d4-b38f-0c37cb7f0e2f

LINK2 ( Note, this one is 2014

Code: Select all

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Mon May 16, 2022 1:52 pm

The FT com one is excellent and is what I based my comment on
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Tue May 17, 2022 7:22 am

The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol)
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by ppnewbie » Tue May 17, 2022 9:37 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 7:22 am
The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol)
What is the significance of the steel plant?
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Tue May 17, 2022 12:13 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 9:37 am
dualstow wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 7:22 am
The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol)
What is the significance of the steel plant?
it’s my one chance to post some news that isn’t “Ukrainians foil Russians yet again” so I jumped on it. O0
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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