Putin Invades Ukraine II

[Ugly_Bird]

Capture.JPG

Would you trust these numbers?
Find the same data from the Russian side and take the averages, then you may get more realistic numbers. :-)

[boglerdude]

He certainly will, fits the narrative. Folks have a hard time accepting that good people do bad things and everyone has their price which is a lot lower than they think.

And yeah thats mostly what I do, average the far-right and far-left takes and that's usually close to reality.

Happy holidays! These short days are killin me

[dualstow]

[ppnewbie]

Cynicism mounting, eh?
Did the Israel-Hamas conflict help kill aid for Ukraine or was it going to teeter anyway?

IMHO - Probably was going to teeter. Trying to fight Russia using the Ukranians as cannon fodder and not getting our hands dirty, probably won't work and eventually politicians will lose interest.

[dualstow]

Trying to fight Russia using the Ukranians as cannon fodder

There’s one premise I still don’t accept—
- I know that the Ukrainians (government) are corrupt. That never changed anything for me.
- Watching Russia adapt after their early poor performance, I have come around to the notion that they can win, especially if we have to save funds and ammo & armaments for Israel and for Taiwan
- I don’t accept that we’re using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder, as if they are puppets and have no choice in the matter.
Wish we had some Ukrainians here to tell us what they think: if they think it’s time to capitulate, etc.

[ppnewbie]

Trying to fight Russia using the Ukranians as cannon fodder

There’s one premise I still don’t accept—
- I know that the Ukrainians (government) are corrupt. That never changed anything for me.
- Watching Russia adapt after their early poor performance, I have come around to the notion that they can win, especially if we have to save funds and ammo & armaments for Israel and for Taiwan
- I don’t accept that we’re using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder, as if they are puppets and have no choice in the matter.
Wish we had some Ukrainians here to tell us what they think: if they think it’s time to capitulate, etc.

Fair enough. I definitely could be wrong.

[dualstow]

Ukraine is running out of ammo.

[vnatale]

Ukraine is running out of ammo.

Two week vacation!

[dualstow]

Russia claims Germany is poised to attack. This is because they found a recording of German air force personnel discussing how Taurus missiles could be used in Ukraine. Germany has never given them any Taurus missiles however.

— Financial Times

Paranoid.

[ppnewbie]

Remember the breathless reports of Putin battling cancer in 2022? IMHO the “news” is just noise and I also feel that many official statements are possibly slightly truthy propoganda.

Maybe Germany needs a war to boost their economy after their greatest ally blew up the Nordstream pipeline and plunged them into the cold dark winter. Sorry I am being sarcastic!

[dualstow]

We might as well also mention how Chinese automakers are eating Germany’s lunch with electric vehicles. (At the same time, there are stories about how Toyota is doing well because it never went fully electric, preferring to build hybrids. So, who knows how that’ll play out).

I do remember the rumors that Putin had cancer and that Kim Jong-Un was sick. Everybody’s sick.

[vnatale]

Listening to this one now and will be listening to it again as soon as it ends.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qa-wl8_wpZA

Serhii Plokhy: History of Ukraine, Russia, Soviet Union, KGB, Nazis & War | Lex Fridman Podcast #415


402,903 views Mar 4, 2024 Lex Fridman Podcast
Serhii Plokhy is a Ukrainian historian at Harvard University, director of the Ukrainian Research Institute, and an author of many books on history of Eastern Europe, including his latest book The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History.

TRANSCRIPT:
https://lexfridman.com/serhii-plokhy-...

EPISODE LINKS:
Serhii's X: https://x.com/splokhy
Serhii's Website: https://history.fas.harvard.edu/peopl...
Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute: https://huri.harvard.edu/
Serhii's Books: https://amzn.to/3OS2EqK
2006 - The Origins of the Slavic Nations
2010 - Yalta: The Price of Peace
2012 - The Cossack Myth: History and Nationhood in the Age of Empires
2014 - The Last Empire: The Final Days of the Soviet Union
2015 - The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine
2016 - The Man with the Poison Gun: A Cold War Spy Story
2017 - Lost Kingdom: The Quest for Empire and the Making of the Russian Nation
2018 - Chernobyl: History of a Tragedy
2021 - Nuclear Folly: A History of the Cuban Missile Crisis
2021 - The Frontline: Essays on Ukraine's Past and Present
2022 - Atoms and Ashes: A Global History of Nuclear Disaster
2023 - The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History

OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
1:18 - Collapse of the Soviet Union
17:27 - Origins of Russia and Ukraine
30:30 - Ukrainian nationalism
38:13 - Stepan Bandera
1:07:13 - KGB
1:22:11 - War in Ukraine
1:58:27 - NATO and Russia
2:09:30 - Peace talks
2:23:17 - Ukrainian Army head Valerii Zaluzhnyi
2:29:54 - Power and War
2:40:45 - Holodomor
2:47:17 - Chernobyl
2:57:51 - Nuclear power
3:07:28 - Future of the world

[dualstow]

Thanks, Vinny. It’s great that there’s a transcript.

[ppnewbie]

Thanks Vinny! Was reading through the transcript. Very interesting. I’m going to listen to the whole podcast over the next few days.

[vnatale]

Thanks Vinny! Was reading through the transcript. Very interesting. I’m going to listen to the whole podcast over the next few days.

I do a lot of "no mind" work at this computer, i.e., work that is mainly inputting that does not require all of my brain, so it gives me an opportunity to listen.

[dualstow]

I kind of miss the conspiracy theorists during the aftermath of this Moscow attack, because I don’t know what to believe.
Even though Putin almost certainly did bomb that apartment complex when he came to power a quarter century ago, I don’t think he did this. Isis took credit for it, after all.

At the same time, it lasted an hour before the police showed up? In Moscow? I think that was Putin. The delay.

[Mountaineer]

I think (note I said ‘think’ rather than the popular ‘feel’ often used by the woke) Putin and his cronies have invaded our legal system as well as the Ukraine:

A TikTok influencer has used his account to encourage illegal aliens to take properties and invoke squatter’s rights. Property rights are in the news again after a woman was arrested for trying to oust interlopers from her family’s New York house. Some strangers tried to help her out but were also arrested.

Federal agencies have argued that they are “persuading” not “coercing” when they enlist social media platforms to push or suppress information. They also argued that the government has a right to free speech and to privacy. Joy Pullman, writing at The Federalist, pointed out that the government does not have constitutional rights, only citizens.

A Minnesota appeals court has ruled against a Christian pharmacist who refused to dispense a “morning after” abortifacient drug to a customer. The customer was given the option of having another staff member fill the prescription the following day, but chose to drive 50 miles to the nearest Wallgreen’s. The customer is suing for breaching Minnesota’s human rights act.

A woman who found a man who shaving in the ladies’ bathroom told him that he should not be there. She had her membership cancelled and a complaint about her was made to the police. Planet Fitness is doubling down, saying it will provide escorts for transgender customers so they can feel safe.

The US Department of Justice, 16 states, and the District of Columbia are suing Apple for “using a variety of unfair tactics to entrench its market position and restrict innovation” in the smartphone market. One self-confessed “Appleholic” tech writer said he cannot see any merit in the lawsuit, saying that Apple’s integration of hardware and apps is what makes it great and the reason why customers stay.

[dualstow]

Well you’ve covered a lot of ground, M. I don’t know if any of it has anything to do with Putin.
But, our legal system does seem pretty messed up, in a multitude of ways.

[Mountaineer]

Well you’ve covered a lot of ground, M. I don’t know if any of it has anything to do with Putin.
But, our legal system does seem pretty messed up, in a multitude of ways.

Perhaps Putin and his cronies are not involved, perhaps. Maybe it’s we the people who are most responsible. That’s even worse. But what is the root cause?

[seajay]

I don’t accept that we’re using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder, as if they are puppets and have no choice in the matter.

Ukrainians feel betrayed by the US, Republicans vetoing aid and past limitations that restricted Ukraine to having to fight with one arm tied behind its back signifying more a case of support for Putin. Capitulation isn't a option given past Russian/Ukraine history, instead the nuclear last post option is increasingly being seen as the more likely, 15+ times Chernobyl's (in a war zone, so left open to spew massive amounts of radiation into the atmosphere rather than being capped = sustained global impact). After Chernobyl the increase of radiation in rainwater in Washington State was more than 140 times the background level measured before Chernobyl (if Ukraine is deemed to be lost the level of radiation in the US could be increased to in excess of 3000 times higher). 70%+ of Russians live within continental Europe, as would the rest of Europe be massively impacted, perhaps even uninhabitable for 20,000+ years. Russia given its radiation exposure levels and very high numbers of deaths may very well be inclined to launch its nukes.

Or Ukraine could perhaps roll over, quietly surrender and be ravaged/murdered as the US and rest of Europe seemingly would prefer.

[dualstow]

I don’t accept that we’re using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder, as if they are puppets and have no choice in the matter.

Ukrainians feel betrayed by the US,

As they should.

Where did you read about the nuclear threat, Seajay? I have only read Putin’s veiled threats about using nukes, but only if the U.S. or another NATO nation were to cross the line by directly killing Russian troops.

[seajay]

I don’t accept that we’re using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder, as if they are puppets and have no choice in the matter.

Ukrainians feel betrayed by the US,

As they should.

Where did you read about the nuclear threat, Seajay? I have only read Putin’s veiled threats about using nukes, but only if the U.S. or another NATO nation were to cross the line by directly killing Russian troops.

From Ukrainian military top brass, can't recall the name, TV news instead of being read, some months back and along the lines of if Ukraine loses the whole world loses with highlighting of the number/size of nuclear reactors across Ukraine and the widespread radiation that could arise, a strong inference that the rest of the world should be taking greater steps against Russia/support of Ukraine to avoid major nuclear incidents. Shortly thereafter Zelenskyy was putting out about the risk Russia was inducing against possible nuclear reactors across Ukraine i.e. redirection that if nuclear reactor de-caps did occur then both sides could imply it was the other as being the cause.

You have to remember that the 1930's Soviet engineered famine killed a large proportion of the Ukrainian population and Russia has a history of purging populations. In Mariupol the city was leveled whilst women/children were blocked from leaving - had to spend two months in below ground darkness before taking the risk of moving out of the city under gun-fire. Even a building within which children were massed and had CHILDREN written in large letters observable from the sky Russian planes intentionally bombed the building. There are mass burials of women/children that Russians didn't take as prisoners, just executed. Very much a fight and die, rather than surrender and die Ukrainian mentality. Russians don't just target military, rather they look to indiscriminately exterminate the population via mass bombardment that collectively is little different to a nuclear strike in the damaged caused.

Yes Putin has threatened nuclear if any of Russia is taken, and where he's now defined Eastern Ukraine and Crimea as being part of that. So very much as Ukraine has repeatedly stated, the start of WW3 (nuclear war). Many are surprised that Russia hasn't made another big push into the rest of Ukraine since the start of the winter thaw, however I suspect that both sides know that leads to nuclear and as such are just keeping a prolonged conventional war standoff going, however replacement troops is a issue for Ukraine, as is lack of ammunition, is time limited before escalation. A potential pro-longer is that Ukraine is now up to manufacturing 1 million drones/year, could even double and maybe double that number again, enough to rain down 10,000/day suicide drones or multiple more DIY grenades (like miniature pipe bombs) onto individual Russian soldiers (that in turn the Russians do likewise) across the 1000km front lines. Much of the front line has transitioned to being mostly sniper and drone deaths/injuries but with Russia further aided in having missiles/artillery that the Ukrainians now lack. Pushes are mostly from the Russian side, non Russian bullet fodder thrown at Ukrainian positions that reveal their positions to the Russians.

Ukrainian squads of 90, rotational 30 out at a time are typically seeing two thirds killed/injured within a couple of months front line time. Most who return back to the front lines from leave do so in high expectancy of not seeing their loved ones again or returning limbless. Increasing anger towards America, that's kept quiet/polite in the hope that it might reverse its betrayal.

[vnatale]

I think (note I said ‘think’ rather than the popular ‘feel’ often used by the woke)

Sorry. But this use of "feel" rather than "think" predates woke by decades and decades.

I've been railing against it similarly for decades, saying "I don't want to know how you feel, I want to know what you think."

Loosely related.

Start paying attention to how often you are hearing people say "a little bit" when they actually are referring to things that are on the spectrum of "somewhat significant to significant to quite significant".

"A little bit" means barely perceptible. It's almost never used properly to describe that.

[Xan]

I think (note I said ‘think’ rather than the popular ‘feel’ often used by the woke)

Sorry. But this use of "feel" rather than "think" predates woke by decades and decades.

I've been railing against it similarly for decades, saying "I don't want to know how you feel, I want to know what you think."

Loosely related.

Start paying attention to how often you are hearing people say "a little bit" when they actually are referring to things that are on the spectrum of "somewhat significant to significant to quite significant".

"A little bit" means barely perceptible. It's almost never used properly to describe that.

One that bugs me is the use of "like", which has sadly expanded far beyond the Valley girls. Somebody will relay a story to me and say "I was like, 'what were you thinking?'". I'll reply, "You were 'LIKE' that? Does that mean you said it or you thought it?"

[vnatale]

I think (note I said ‘think’ rather than the popular ‘feel’ often used by the woke)

Sorry. But this use of "feel" rather than "think" predates woke by decades and decades.

I've been railing against it similarly for decades, saying "I don't want to know how you feel, I want to know what you think."

Loosely related.

Start paying attention to how often you are hearing people say "a little bit" when they actually are referring to things that are on the spectrum of "somewhat significant to significant to quite significant".

"A little bit" means barely perceptible. It's almost never used properly to describe that.

One that bugs me is the use of "like", which has sadly expanded far beyond the Valley girls. Somebody will relay a story to me and say "I was like, 'what were you thinking?'". I'll reply, "You were 'LIKE' that? Does that mean you said it or you thought it?"

I have not noticed that use of "like". But you have raised my awareness of it and I will pay close attention to any use of it.

I do know that decades ago I'd use "like" in the way you described.

Getting back to feel / think. I will add that it is my belief is that one feels emotions and one thinks thoughts.

So, I usually want to know what one thinks, not what one feels ... especially when it comes to opinions.

Do notice the misuse of the word feel. It is far, far, far, far from confined to just the "woke". It is prevalent among all parts of society wherein someone says "feel" when the person really means "think".