Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Dieter » Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:55 pm

+1 to KGBs post
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:55 pm

Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:34 am
By line break...

Agree. Should have stopped with Afghanistan. Though I've zero personal problem with knocking off Saddam and pretty sure a majority of Iraqis would say the same (unless in the Saddam/Sunni power structure).
Personally, I also think it's a good thing the Saddam government was overthrown and he was executed. Inside a vacuum. Outside the vacuum, it's harder to deal with the other aspects of Iraq II. Like our own government's information operations, the massive damage to civilian infrastructure during the initial invasion, turning that part of the world into even more of a hellhole for a long time, and the massive casualties afterwards. But yea, reading about how the Baath party treated its citizens is pretty gross. Lots of similarities with the Ukrainians, Russians, and Donbass groups.
Not sure where you are getting your information, but you're going to have to provide some evidence for your assertion that Ukraine is setting up it's civilians to get killed. Stating it doesn't cut it. Why even do that when the Russians provide all the PR Ukraine could want on a daily basis for the entire world to see?
My assertion is that the Ukrainian military sets up in civilian areas and attracts Russian ordnance. A couple examples:
apc school.png
apc school.png (1.34 MiB) Viewed 386 times
Ukrainian armed forces and armed groups maintained their positions and further
embedded their weapons and forces in populated areas, in violation of their obligations
under international humanitarian law. In Shyrokyne, a key location in the ‘grey zone’
between the Government-controlled city of Mariupol and the town of Novoazovsk
controlled by the armed groups, OHCHR documented extensive use of civilian buildings
and locations by the Ukrainian military and the Azov regiment, and looting of civilian
property, leading to displacement
. Prima facie civilian buildings in Donetsk city, such as
residential buildings, a shelter for homeless people
, and a former art gallery, continued
to be used by armed groups, thereby endangering civilians. In the village of Kominternove,
Donetsk region, residents reported that members of the armed groups of the ‘Donetsk
people’s republic’ took over abandoned houses. In January and February 2016, hostilities
between the armed groups stationed in Kominternove and Ukrainian armed forces stationed
in the nearby village of Vodiane have endangered the local population
.Armed groups and Ukrainian armed forces also continued to position military forces
in or near hospitals. In Telmanove, armed members of the ‘Donetsk people’s republic’ have
occupied part of the general hospital building, which is adjacent to a maternity hospital
and sustained damage from shelling. In Volnovakha, Ukrainian armed forces were stationed
in close proximity to a local hospital. OHCHR recalls that hospitals are specifically
protected under article 11 of Additional Protocol II to the Geneva Conventions, which are
binding on the warring parties.
Another good example that I may be able to find later is a video showing destroyed Ukrainian vehicles (or artillery pieces, I can't remember) where they were parked between two apartment complexes.

I'll assume you also would like me to provide examples of Ukrainians behaving in a manner that's unworthy of our support.
A former member of an armed group informed OHCHR about his ill-treatment by
Ukrainian forces (allegedly SBU) in September 2014, in the town of Sloviansk, Donetsk
region. After his arrest, he was reportedly kept in the basement of the local college and
regularly beaten. He was later transferred to the town of Izium, where he was kept in a
basement, together with 12 other detainees. He claimed having witnessed a summary
execution while there.
. . .
OHCHR also documented
the case of three women, who were detained in May 2015, in a town under Government
control in Donetsk region. The victims included the wife of an armed group commander
and her daughter. The latter was allegedly severely tortured, and both were allegedly
threatened with sexual violence
. . .
In another case, a ‘pro-federalism’ activist from Odesa, charged of acts of terrorism
was pressured to sign a confession after being tortured at the Odesa SBU. During his
interrogation, he was reportedly suffocated with a plastic bag covering his head and was
beaten on the face, head and body. The SBU officers then allegedly took him to the lobby
of the SBU building where he was shown his son whom they had also arrested. His son was
taken to a separate room and the father could hear his harrowing screams.
Via the United Nations. There are more examples in that report and elsewhere.
Not to mention their history in Chechnya and Syria. This assertion falls flat on it's face.
My argument isn't that one should support Russia over Ukraine. It's that we shouldn't support Ukraine or Russia.
I also was using World Bank data, compiled by Our World In Data, first seen here:
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Your link data starts at 1987 and uses current US $. The link that the above screenshot comes from obviously starts at 1990 and uses PPP, but it shows the divergence of the other countries in the Soviet sphere and Ukraine. If you start at 1992, it looks a little better for Ukraine, but they're still down.
Corruption, yep. Wonder where that culture came from? They will have to get a grip on it if they're serious about joining the EU.
Ukraine is corrupt. No issues there.
Good to know you think the Ukrainian populace would have been better off. Ukrainians clearly don't and are voting with their lives. Perhaps it would be helpful for you to read up on Stalin's mass deportations (and importations of Russians). Russian claims on Crimea as being "Russian" are particularly shall we say rich in historical irony.
No argument here. Some Ukrainians didn't want to be part of Ukraine after the coup, others still did, and they started fighting over whether they'd be allowed to leave. Personally, I don't have a problem with areas deciding they don't want to be part of certain governments anymore. Places like Scotland and Catalan are fortunate that they're in a relatively peaceful part of the world where they can put it up for a vote. Looking at how violent the coup was, I can see why the forces of Donetsk and Luhansk didn't want to give the new Ukrainian government time to stop them.
Yep, that's a thing. Perhaps one should ask, why do eastern Europeans despise Russia and Russians and why did they try to get into NATO as soon as they could?
NATO is a great deal for the non-Americans in it, no question. Ethnic Ukrainians do seem to hate Russia. As I understand it, a lot of Russians got "trapped" behind the borders of Ukraine when the Soviet Union dissolved. It would make sense to me that those areas want to revert back to Russia. I can also understand Ukraine not wanting to give them up without a fight since they have a lot of resources they wouldn't want to lose. This has been a common theme in European history. I don't think there's a moral imperative that the US gets involved in a territorial battle between Ukraine and Russia.
As noted by others, Putin turned Russia into a pariah state. 100% deservedly so. That sucks for individual Russians no doubt and if the mobilization reports are accurate I feel doubly sad for those guys...but for Russia, typical. That's their culture and military culture specifically. Admittedly not Russian military, but besides ISIS who takes a person no matter how bad they are and smashes their head in with a sledge hammer?
IIRC, in War Is A Force That Gives Us Meaning, Hedges talked about the Serbian paramilitary executing groups of people they captured with a sledgehammer. I'm honestly surprised that you think the Russo-Ukraine war is a more worthy one to support than the US policing action in the Balkans.
Who takes a captured soldier and castrates him (that one was Russian military)? And then...films it all and posts it???
There are videos of Ukrainian military executing Russian POWs (About 20% down this NYT article). It appears that they slit their throats, then shot one who was still alive. It's heinous over there. The UN report lists a lot more of this kind of stuff, from all sides.
In terms of what to do as a US geopolitical strategist, this one's not even hard.
If you're going to talk about geopolitical strategy, you have to bring up geography, not "flouting international norms." This is the only line of argument that has any weight with me; the Zeihan argument that Russia wants to expand up to more defensible borders on the western side of Ukraine. I'm sure the thought process is "if Russia can secure more defensible borders, then they'll be more apt to attack neighbors (and the US) since they are better able to defend themselves." I would just say that I agree with Zeihan that the days of the US being the world police are coming to an end because we're finding that the cost of it isn't worth it when we're not facing off against the powerful Soviet Union.
You don't get to flout international norms to the extent Putin has and not pay a price eventually.

As the New Testament says...by their fruits you shall know them. And Kriegs, you're on the wrong side of history with this one my friend.
It's awkward to say that Russia is flouting international norms as an American. You brought up Syria earlier, where we've armed insurgents and conducted combat operations to overthrow their government without anything approaching a declaration of war AFAIK. Russia was there at the invitation of the government to fight the insurgents, which is objectively more in keeping with international norms than what we were doing.
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:57 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:02 am
Do you think by welcoming Ukraine, warts and all, into the fold (perhaps NATO) it may be good for us in the long run?
What would the point of that be, other than to lead directly to a shooting war between us and Russia? As current CIA director Bill Burns wrote in 2008,
Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players . . . I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
Solzhenitsyn, Live Not By Lies
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:13 am

Yes, but now that Russia has invaded, things have changed. A lot. I realize that a lot of people still point to Putin “feeling threatened” in the first place, and his invasion of Ukraine being predicated on that. His own speeches tell a different story.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:19 am

Posting an image 4 days after the invasion and reports from 2014...pales in comparison to the unmitigated atrocity of the Russians over the past 9 months. I'm certain there are war crimes going both ways, but every report shows the mass preponderance perpetrated by the Russians. I see why the Ukranians prefer continued war over Russian occupation.

If they want to keep fighting up to their old borders, let's supply them.
I have no clue. Ask me next May.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by stuper1 » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:16 pm

I'm with you 1,000% Mr. Kriegspiel, and I thank you for your well reasoned posts on this matter.

We promised not to push NATO eastward when the Soviet Union broke up, and yet we've done nothing else over the last 30 years, despite wise US advisers saying that it's provocative. So many people like to paint Putin as an evil villain. I don't know. I've never met the guy. I certainly don't believe all the propaganda in the media preaching to me that he's the reincarnation of Hitler. Many reports say he has strong support in Russia because he saved them from anarchy. At least he's doing a good job of defending his country.

The people who really seem like evil villains to me are the leaders of the military-industrial complex who are pushing for further hostilities not to defend their own country but simply to make more money, and they don't care if they have to fight to the last Ukrainian as long as they are making money. And all the while we cloak it as worrying about human rights. And then there's Zelensky, the sanctiminious ass. How much of our billions of dollars in aid has gone straight into his pockets? And how much of the high-tech weaponry has ended up in the hands of bad guys who will use it for terrorism in coming years? Think of civilian airliners being shot out of the sky by surface-to-air missiles and that sort of thing.

If Russia was pushing a "defensive" alliance up to our doorstep, I'm sure we would have no qualms about pushing back strongly say in Mexico or Canada, and I have no doubt that we would kill a lot more civilians with our pushing than what Putin has done in Ukraine. I haven't seen that Putin has been carpet bombing Kiev. He has actually seemed highly restrained to me in terms of not causing indiscriminate civilian casualties, except as noted by Kriegspiel in areas where the Ukraine forces have set up in civilian areas as a cowardly shield. Balanced reporting, including by groups such as Amnesty International and even the UN I believe, has shown there are plenty of atrocities committed by both sides, just as with any war. Why the U.S. should be in the middle of a border conflict that has nothing to do with us is a great mystery to me, especially when our baby NATO is part of the provocation. Every time that NATO gets extended to a new country, guess who makes more money? Yes, the MIC. If they pay off a few politicians say in Estonia to invite in NATO, guess who makes out like a bandit in profits?

We are slouching toward nuclear war, and yet people have the gall to say that those doing the slouching are on the right side of history. History may be over soon if we keep on slouching.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:29 pm

Kriegs,

Awesome response! I really appreciate you putting the time into this one. It's always nice to have quality debates on a forum as they tend to be pretty rare these days. I'll try to provide same quality in a reply but a little maxed out with work and life right now.

An outline would go something like this.

Differences between 2014 and 2022

Actual laws of Armed Conflict vs. Civilian organizations that report on this stuff

When does a country get involved in another country's business?

However, I think the below is the coup de grâce for just about all of your arguments. The top URL is the long version, the wikipedia URL is the short version.

https://www.csce.gov/sites/helsinkicomm ... rendum.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukra ... referendum

Here's a couple of nice quotes from the CSCE report.

"Hundreds of foreign observers and correspondents watched as 84 percent of eligible voters went to the polls. Over 90 percent of participants, including many non-Ukrainians, cast ballots for independence."

"On December 4, the Central Electoral Commission released the final results of the referendum and presidential election. Support for Ukrainian independence exceeded even the most optimistic poll projections and expectations by Ukrainian nationalists, with even the more Russified east and south voting overwhelmingly for independence. Of the 84.1 percent of the eligible voters—some 32 million people—voting in the referendum, fully 90.32 percent supported the August 24 declaration of independence. The vote against independence was 7.6 percent, and 2.1 percent of the ballots cast were invalid. All in all, over three- quarters of all eligible voters in Ukraine chose independence. 7 Every oblast in Ukraine, including Crimea, voted for independence. Support ranged from over 95 percent in western Ukraine and the Kiev region to 54 percent in Crimea, where ethnic Russians form a substantial majority of the population. Significantly, in industrialized but Russified eastern oblasts such as Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhye, as well as in the southern Black Sea oblasts of Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kherson, the vote for independence exceeded 80 percent in each oblast."

My rhetorical rejoinder...since when does 10-20% of the population get a veto on the freedom and political preferences of the 80-90% to include in the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine?

The fact is Putin saw/sees Ukraine as a very specific threat to Russian nationalism and his personal rule. Way too much freedom, way too close to his border.

Actually, with the above I'm not sure there's really anything more to say about "poor picked on Russians in southern Ukraine" unless you feel democratic rule and democratic vote decisions do not matter. If that's your position, then there's no closing a fundamental philosophical belief of mine and so continued debate would be pointless. Same reason I'm highly anti-Trump and his fan club.

It would be fun for me to spend a little more time in the details of how the Ukrainian military is operating vs. the Russian one based on 2022 vs. 2014. From what I understand the whole Azov thing is a bit more complex and quite a bit less sinister than Russian bots make it out to be (of course Ukrainian bots may be at work as well). The discussion over getting in a country's internal affairs or supporting one side or another in a conflict is on it's face not a "winnable" topic. These questions always come down to what is thought to be important and worthwhile vs. risks and what is neither important nor worthwhile. Reasonable people can be 180 from each other oftentimes and have very solid arguments. I'll try and be more eloquent and evidence based in my longer reply, but the short version is Putin is out of control and needs to be stopped.

P.S. There is a super funny (and I had NO idea) and amazing fact about the Soviet Army vote buried in the report. The reward for anyone who decides to read the report (Vinny...I'm counting on you!)
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:11 pm

joypog wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:19 am
Posting an image 4 days after the invasion and reports from 2014...pales in comparison to the unmitigated atrocity of the Russians over the past 9 months. I'm certain there are war crimes going both ways, but every report shows the mass preponderance perpetrated by the Russians. I see why the Ukranians prefer continued war over Russian occupation.

If they want to keep fighting up to their old borders, let's supply them.
Just playing a bit of devil’s advocate here. You cannot assume you are getting the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. I don’t have any counterfactual to offer but I’m sure we are getting the news the way they want us to get it.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:22 pm

Oct 2022 UN War Crimes Report

https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/fil ... AUV-EN.pdf

Hmmm...In the War Crimes Games the current score is:

Ukraine single digits

Russia hundreds, or did they make it to 4 digits?

Rhetorical questions:

1. Has there ever been a war with zero war crimes?
2. Is there a qualitative difference between a few and endemic?
3. My take based on your prior writing is that you have served in the military. If so, by all weight of evidence who is the disciplined military force organizationally in this conflict? And which military force is likely trying to minimize war crimes and which one seems to use war crimes as a primary mode of operations?

Since the War Crimes Games are scored like golf...winner Ukraine (and not even close).

Commentary/opinion...Ukrainian leadership fully understands they are completely reliant on western military and economic aid right now and they know exactly what would happen to the continuation of aid if their military had a laws of armed conflict problem.

Just for fun...anyone outraged when Trump pardoned the Seal Team NCO. I was. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... -seal-iraq

Not the best source, but it's got the basic story correct
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:24 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:11 pm
joypog wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:19 am
Posting an image 4 days after the invasion and reports from 2014...pales in comparison to the unmitigated atrocity of the Russians over the past 9 months. I'm certain there are war crimes going both ways, but every report shows the mass preponderance perpetrated by the Russians. I see why the Ukranians prefer continued war over Russian occupation.

If they want to keep fighting up to their old borders, let's supply them.
Just playing a bit of devil’s advocate here. You cannot assume you are getting the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. I don’t have any counterfactual to offer but I’m sure we are getting the news the way they want us to get it.
I just offered some pretty good evidence that Ukraine has committed some war crimes...but make sure you read my commentary. The score does matter.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:51 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:11 pm
joypog wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:19 am
Posting an image 4 days after the invasion and reports from 2014...pales in comparison to the unmitigated atrocity of the Russians over the past 9 months. I'm certain there are war crimes going both ways, but every report shows the mass preponderance perpetrated by the Russians. I see why the Ukranians prefer continued war over Russian occupation.

If they want to keep fighting up to their old borders, let's supply them.
Just playing a bit of devil’s advocate here. You cannot assume you are getting the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. I don’t have any counterfactual to offer but I’m sure we are getting the news the way they want us to get it.
I'm quite sure of it as well. The Ukrainians have been destroying Russia in the western-propaganda front.

However, we shouldn't just turn off our brains and bury our heads in the sand just because the UKR+MSM are much better propagandists than RUS+Tucker. As KGB noted, the preponderance of evidence is towards a massive balance of Russian malfeasance - mind you, during a Russian invasion into Ukrainian territory.

To use this propaganda skill disparity as an reason to ignore the news is just as knee jerk as blithely accepting the news. Maybe the Ukrainians have an advantage in the infowars because they've (more or less) got the truth on their side...
I have no clue. Ask me next May.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:07 pm

Great tangent on the infowar...wow, a complete blowout but a little spin from me.

In infowar a key principle is that you have to be considered credible. Russia has so discredited themselves that I don't think they recover in the west for at least a generation. It's interesting to watch Tucker and I'm amazed at what he's doing. Hannity and Ingraham seem to be smart enough to have backed off the preposterous. Tucker seems to be doubling down.

Not making a prediction, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him get canned if his ratings ever go down. The Murdoch empire seems to moving away from crazy some. The WSJ made the turn early, the NYP and Fox News seem to be turning as well.

If his ratings stay up, he'll be fine.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:10 pm

I only very rarely watch Fox News. What is Tucker saying?
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:25 pm

The standard...corruption, they're as bad as the Russians, we should be spending all this money on the border, getting involved in yet another war, let's cut them off.

Some of the above I have sympathy for as well. I just happen to believe what's going on in this particular situation is a bit exceptional in terms of what it means for our future world.

A small American example...we got involved when Iraq invaded Kuwait on the principle of it (and the oil/geo-strategic significance of it). That was OK in my book.

Iraq 2 did not seem at all compelling to me even IF Saddam would have had WMDs. There just wasn't a connection between him and Al-Qaeda.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:43 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:29 pm


P.S. There is a super funny (and I had NO idea) and amazing fact about the Soviet Army vote buried in the report. The reward for anyone who decides to read the report (Vinny...I'm counting on you!)


Sorry this time around I'm going to have to let you down. I've been hit with one thing after another in my life (all good and of my choosing).
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:46 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:25 pm

The standard...corruption, they're as bad as the Russians, we should be spending all this money on the border, getting involved in yet another war, let's cut them off.

Some of the above I have sympathy for as well. I just happen to believe what's going on in this particular situation is a bit exceptional in terms of what it means for our future world.

A small American example...we got involved when Iraq invaded Kuwait on the principle of it (and the oil/geo-strategic significance of it). That was OK in my book.

Iraq 2 did not seem at all compelling to me even IF Saddam would have had WMDs. There just wasn't a connection between him and Al-Qaeda.


Those are what I was hearing several House Republicans say at a meeting called by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Nov 18, 2022 4:58 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:29 pm

However, I think the below is the coup de grâce for just about all of your arguments. The top URL is the long version, the wikipedia URL is the short version.

https://www.csce.gov/sites/helsinkicomm ... rendum.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukra ... referendum

snip

My rhetorical rejoinder...since when does 10-20% of the population get a veto on the freedom and political preferences of the 80-90% to include in the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine?
We're not talking about Ukraine splitting off from the Soviet Union three decades ago. I don't really have an opinion on 1991; we're talking about the current situation, where it appears that some Ukrainians don't want to be part of Ukraine anymore. Simply because their parents and grandparents voted to leave the Soviet Union, which they should be applauded for, doesn't prohibit the current population from looking at events since then and choosing a different way. All the differences between people who want to remain part of Ukraine, leave Ukraine, forge closer ties to the EU or stick with Russia; those are all problems for Ukrainians to deal with, not us. I wish we could have mitigated the current disaster, but we didn't, and now we should stop making it worse.
Actually, with the above I'm not sure there's really anything more to say about "poor picked on Russians in southern Ukraine" unless you feel democratic rule and democratic vote decisions do not matter. If that's your position, then there's no closing a fundamental philosophical belief of mine and so continued debate would be pointless.
Yanukovich was elected fairly, as OSCE (the same organization who you referenced RE the 1991 referendum) agrees, in 2010. In 2014, after it became clear that he favored continued economic ties with Russia vs the EU, he was overthrown in a US-backed coup, triggering the events that we're talking about almost a decade later. If your belief in democratic rule and vote results was fundamental to your philosophy, you wouldn't support the outcome that you seem to.
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
Solzhenitsyn, Live Not By Lies
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:24 pm

If we are going to move the ball forward in time, let's start talking corruption again...and you may want to read up on his life and times while in power. A little accidental Dioxin poisoning of your opponent in a close election never hurts either.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:56 pm

Please, tell me more about how corrupt and disgusting the political world of Ukraine is.
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
Solzhenitsyn, Live Not By Lies
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:00 pm

Just started this book and this section points out how governments act of ignorance, not out of planned forethought, as many seem to believe.

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Details are disputed, of such episodes as that involving a Russian Foxtrot submarine six hundred miles out in the Atlantic: its captain, uncertain whether on the surface war had broken out, allegedly threatened to fire his nuclear torpedo when harassed by US warships. The fundamentals are that both sides groped through the Crisis under huge misapprehensions, and that some subordinate officers enjoyed a control over the use of weapons of mass destruction which could have unleashed a catastrophe unintended by either the Kremlin or the White House. The longer I write historical narratives, the more chilled I become by the fog of ignorance in which governments make big decisions. In the twenty-first century, the US, Russia and China understand each other little better than they did six decades ago. It is no easier for the White House to divine the intentions of the angry and half-deranged autocrat who tenants the Kremlin in 2022 than it was those of his predecessor in 1962. All three superpower governments, not to mention lesser nuclear nations, take risks that could one day prove disastrous for humanity, because somebody miscalculates, overreaches or concedes to subordinates opportunities to do so.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Mountaineer » Sat Nov 19, 2022 7:37 am

Fight Fight is an excellent novel that explores a scenario similar to the last post by Vinny. The author is a former F-18 US Navy aircraft carrier pilot.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/415 ... ight-fight

A contemporary Air-Sea heavyweight fight...the like we haven't seen since The Pacific War.


A routine U.S. Navy Freedom-of-Navigation patrol in the South China sea turns deadly when it encounters a covert - and unauthorized - Chinese plot to lay claim to waters of the South China Sea. Misunderstanding, miscalculation, and fear lead to both sides mobilizing, with the United States moving west across the Pacific to meet and engage the People's Liberation Army (Navy) who waits with modern weaponry and determined purpose.


Through detailed research and his insight of modern naval and aerial warfare gained through personal experience, Kevin Miller takes the reader aboard a nuclear powered aircraft carrier heading across the Pacific for the South China Sea - and combat. Today, the South China Sea is one of the most important - and dangerous - bodies of water in the world, with seven countries laying claim to portions of it, and in one case, all of it. Loaded with action, from heavy seas to inbound missiles, Fight Fight explores a scenario that could lead to an unwanted and unplanned - and with today's headlines perhaps inevitable - war between an established and a rising superpower.


Known for his character development, Miller brings Flip, Weed, and Olive along on another sea adventure. Along the way they will encounter a leadership challenge as old as the sea, and the motivations of several Chinese antagonists, from 4-star leadership to front line fighter pilots, are explored.


Today's cutting-edge precision weapons - some real and some imagined - are employed to devastating effect. Could the Chinese - though relentless action or divine luck - do the unthinkable?
National blessing depends not upon political parties or some charismatic leader—be they altruistic or self-serving—but upon God Almighty. Without Him, sooner or later, a nation's cracks and fissures will appear and divisions will widen, and the nation will greatly suffer on account of it.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:40 am

Mountaineer wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 7:37 am

Fight Fight is an excellent novel that explores a scenario similar to the last post by Vinny. The author is a former F-18 US Navy aircraft carrier pilot.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/415 ... ight-fight

A contemporary Air-Sea heavyweight fight...the like we haven't seen since The Pacific War.


A routine U.S. Navy Freedom-of-Navigation patrol in the South China sea turns deadly when it encounters a covert - and unauthorized - Chinese plot to lay claim to waters of the South China Sea. Misunderstanding, miscalculation, and fear lead to both sides mobilizing, with the United States moving west across the Pacific to meet and engage the People's Liberation Army (Navy) who waits with modern weaponry and determined purpose.


Through detailed research and his insight of modern naval and aerial warfare gained through personal experience, Kevin Miller takes the reader aboard a nuclear powered aircraft carrier heading across the Pacific for the South China Sea - and combat. Today, the South China Sea is one of the most important - and dangerous - bodies of water in the world, with seven countries laying claim to portions of it, and in one case, all of it. Loaded with action, from heavy seas to inbound missiles, Fight Fight explores a scenario that could lead to an unwanted and unplanned - and with today's headlines perhaps inevitable - war between an established and a rising superpower.


Known for his character development, Miller brings Flip, Weed, and Olive along on another sea adventure. Along the way they will encounter a leadership challenge as old as the sea, and the motivations of several Chinese antagonists, from 4-star leadership to front line fighter pilots, are explored.


Today's cutting-edge precision weapons - some real and some imagined - are employed to devastating effect. Could the Chinese - though relentless action or divine luck - do the unthinkable?



Seems to definitely be the case!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:55 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:56 pm
Please, tell me more about how corrupt and disgusting the political world of Ukraine is.
It’s very Russian…and public apologies. Sometimes my writing gets strident and obnoxious.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:17 am

Kbg wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:55 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:56 pm

Please, tell me more about how corrupt and disgusting the political world of Ukraine is.


It’s very Russian…and public apologies. Sometimes my writing gets strident and obnoxious.


Has never come across that way to me...
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:23 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:17 am
Kbg wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:55 am
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:56 pm
Please, tell me more about how corrupt and disgusting the political world of Ukraine is.
It’s very Russian…and public apologies. Sometimes my writing gets strident and obnoxious.
Has never come across that way to me...
I'll second that...but I'm almost always in agreement with kgb so I may be overlooking any rough edges in his posts.
I have no clue. Ask me next May.
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