Putin Invades Ukraine II

User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8717
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Tue Feb 07, 2023 9:10 pm

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ ... tter_posts

What Ukraine Needs to Liberate Crimea
A Credible Military Threat Might Be Enough
By Alexander Vindman
February 2, 2023


CREDIBLE THREAT, POSSIBLE PEACE
Western powers don’t need to risk a perilous and prolonged war. They can help bring the conflict to a much swifter conclusion by delivering the weapons, equipment, and logistical support that Ukraine needs to expel Russian troops from all occupied territories north of Crimea and to credibly threaten Moscow’s hold on the peninsula.

Right now, Ukraine is winning with only moderate support from the West. The tanks and other materiel recently promised by the United States, Germany, and various other European powers will undoubtedly give Ukraine an even greater advantage. But to convince Putin that he is better off withdrawing from Crimea, Western countries will need to do much more. They will need to do away with the artificial constraints they have placed on military assistance to Kyiv and supply the long-range weapons that would allow Ukraine to play offense as well as defense. And they will need to deliver hundreds of tanks, armored personnel carriers, drones, planes, and other weapons needed to threaten the liberation of Crimea.

Instead of allowing the conflict to drag on through the winter, the Biden administration should help Ukraine bring the war to a swift and decisive end. Doing so might allow Crimea’s final status to be determined through negotiation rather than force, sparing both Ukraine and Russia the tragedy of another year of fighting. It would also secure Ukrainian democracy, dissuade authoritarian powers from considering military aggression in the future, and reduce the risk of a nuclear escalation that could spiral into an existential conflict.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 13602
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Wed Feb 08, 2023 9:18 am

I like that Alexander Vindman guy. I see him on Twitter sometimes.
Let this be the year of lasagna
Amazon Prime *might* offer cell service. Bad for my telecom shares today, but as a consumer I’d be delighted. — Rumor is not true, says Amazon
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8717
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Wed Feb 08, 2023 11:43 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2023 9:18 am

I like that Alexander Vindman guy. I see him on Twitter sometimes.


It was he and his brother who were fired or demoted by Trump after one of them testified during either Impeachment hearings or the Mueller hearings?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 13602
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Wed Feb 08, 2023 2:13 pm

Correct
Let this be the year of lasagna
Amazon Prime *might* offer cell service. Bad for my telecom shares today, but as a consumer I’d be delighted. — Rumor is not true, says Amazon
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8717
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Tue Feb 14, 2023 6:54 pm

Capture.JPG
Capture.JPG (47.9 KiB) Viewed 3104 times
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Feb 17, 2023 5:28 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 28, 2022 10:58 am
But would you agree, stuper that they have made up their own minds to fight? They are not automatons who are continuing to fight because we're giving them weaponry. (Yes, I do recall previous notes from Silent Majority about the U.S. meddling with Ukraine's gov't. I acknowledge those). Rather, they are asking for weaponry because they are not ready to lie down.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, men are being forcibly conscripted off the streets in order to be thrown at the front lines, in Bakhmut for instance, which Ukrainian generals have said, "is of little strategic significance" (according to the WSJ). In all likelihood, all of the actual volunteers have long since joined the Ukrainian military.

I stand by my position from last year, that the US prolonging the war is a disaster for ordinary Ukrainians, but great for their government who we're propping up.
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
Solzhenitsyn, Live Not By Lies
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 13602
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 17, 2023 5:34 pm

I read about the conscription, too. Zelensky is not looking good in light of that.
Let this be the year of lasagna
Amazon Prime *might* offer cell service. Bad for my telecom shares today, but as a consumer I’d be delighted. — Rumor is not true, says Amazon
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Feb 17, 2023 5:44 pm

Well, I'm delighted that you've changed your mind since December! Remember to write your congressman :D
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
Solzhenitsyn, Live Not By Lies
boglerdude
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1188
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:40 am
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by boglerdude » Fri Feb 17, 2023 6:13 pm

yes its nice to see flexibility in one's weltanschauung. But Putin could be worse, I dunno, everything's propaganda.

What happens if the West defeats Putin and Xi. We just saw the pharma-industrial complex turn on us, and what China had to do keep more than a billion people under control during their real estate covid crisis.

TLDW Elon says we should have a multi-polar world https://youtu.be/0Kj2syMvJCY?t=17
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 13602
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:06 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Feb 17, 2023 5:44 pm
Well, I'm delighted that you've changed your mind since December! Remember to write your congressman :D
I haven’t changed my general view of the war. I’ve always stated that, of course, the Ukranian side is not perfect.
Let this be the year of lasagna
Amazon Prime *might* offer cell service. Bad for my telecom shares today, but as a consumer I’d be delighted. — Rumor is not true, says Amazon
User avatar
Dieter
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 648
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:51 am

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Dieter » Sun Feb 19, 2023 11:18 pm

Perun on Russia’s grand strategy and Ukraine —

https://youtu.be/94bqk8cB9iQ
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8717
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Tue Feb 21, 2023 8:49 pm

This is quite long - nearly three hours.

I listened to the whole things while working. Started listening to it again and listened to about the first hour again.

Like I said it is long ...... but it will be appreciated by many here who do not accept the official Ukraine story.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKzXLwG2eGw

Scott Ritter - 3 hour tell all on Ukraine and what happens next with Putin
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8717
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Fri Feb 24, 2023 9:17 am

Free PDF report

https://www.understandingwar.org/report ... -worldview

HOW WE GOT HERE WITH RUSSIA: THE KREMLIN'S WORLDVIEW
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 349
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by seajay » Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:21 pm

Ukraine is restricted from launching attacks across the attackers border. With China looking likely to start supplying Russia with weapons surely that ridiculous constraint upon Ukraine should be lifted and be supplied with weapons capable of striking Moscow. When Putin's scorch earth/genocide/replace population with Russian doctrine sees the flattening being reciprocated via conventional weapons he'll no doubt threaten nuclear, but will be constrained knowing that if he did resort to that then it would bring far greater consequences. 77% of the Russian population live within its continental Europe region, Moscow is a few hundred miles from Ukraine, resorting to nukes might be considered too close for comfort. Retaliatory attacks into Russia would also be inclined to leave fewer resources being available within Ukraine.
glennds
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1256
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:24 am

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by glennds » Sun Feb 26, 2023 11:19 am

seajay wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:21 pm
Ukraine is restricted from launching attacks across the attackers border.
Restricted by whom?
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 13602
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:06 pm

I think it may be more accurate to say that the weapons systems given to Ukraine by the West are not supposed be used for attacking Russia in Russia. Whether that’s the honor system or the launchers have been modified, I’m not sure. I think both(?)

But, they aleady have used drones to attack Russia at least once, haven’t they.
Let this be the year of lasagna
Amazon Prime *might* offer cell service. Bad for my telecom shares today, but as a consumer I’d be delighted. — Rumor is not true, says Amazon
glennds
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1256
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:24 am

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by glennds » Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:37 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:06 pm
I think it may be more accurate to say that the weapons systems given to Ukraine by the West are not supposed be used for attacking Russia in Russia. Whether that’s the honor system or the launchers have been modified, I’m not sure. I think both(?)

But, they aleady have used drones to attack Russia at least once, haven’t they.
Thanks, I didn't realize these strings were attached to the weapons. I have wondered whether some type of offensive might be the only way for Ukraine to create some downside for Putin, at least enough to get to the negotiating table. Early on there was a lot of speculation that the scale of economic sanctions would bring Russia to the table, but it does not look like there's enough pain there.
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 349
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by seajay » Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:16 am

glennds wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:37 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:06 pm
I think it may be more accurate to say that the weapons systems given to Ukraine by the West are not supposed be used for attacking Russia in Russia.
Thanks, I didn't realize these strings were attached to the weapons. I have wondered whether some type of offensive might be the only way for Ukraine to create some downside for Putin, at least enough to get to the negotiating table. Early on there was a lot of speculation that the scale of economic sanctions would bring Russia to the table, but it does not look like there's enough pain there.
The restriction I suspect is to retain a further escalation option. If China look to start supplying weapons to Russia then the US in return might supply missiles capable of striking deep into Russia with larger payloads and lift the "don't fire into Russia" restriction. Moscow and other major cities are within relatively close range of Ukraine and once major Russian cities (77% of the Russian population live within continental Europe) start to be levelled via conventional weapons as in how Putin is 'scorching the earth' in Ukraine, so Putin may be inclined to threaten escalation (threaten the use of nukes). Recently however the US completed the upgrading of 100's of nukes around Europe a year ahead of schedule i.e. in readiness of a counter-threat in such a event. The upgrades include steering/dodging, greater accuracy (to within 30 yards), command dialable yields and command control of whether air, ground, ground penetrating delivery. On seeing Putin more than half encircled with nukes (subs in the seas to the north and south, and from western lands) and the nuclear escalation the supply of their weapons risked, so China is less inclined to actually supply Putin with such weapons. And its also a nudge about how situations can escalate in the event of the likes of China invading Taiwan.
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 349
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by seajay » Mon Feb 27, 2023 12:32 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Feb 14, 2023 6:54 pm
Image
More recently, a pocket of RU/Wagner have been surrounded/lost

Image
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 13602
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 27, 2023 12:38 pm

cool
Let this be the year of lasagna
Amazon Prime *might* offer cell service. Bad for my telecom shares today, but as a consumer I’d be delighted. — Rumor is not true, says Amazon
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8717
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:20 am

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 89459.html

‘Hard to process:’ Ukrainian teen returns to home frozen in time with phone still on charge and beds unmade
Anna Malygon, 19, from Kharkiv, left home 18 months ago to study abroad

Ria Newman
Jam Press
3 days ago


https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCiVefO ... lBQ/videos

Anna from Ukraine
@AnnafromUkraine

44.5K subscribers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPT6oZ1FOAw

Anna from Ukraine - Video Diary of Anna Danylchuk Provides an Honest and Personal Perspective on War
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 349
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by seajay » Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:20 am

What with the starvation, and now more recent invasion by a vile terrorist neighbour, I'm certain that Ukraine deeply regrets having ever believed Russian promises when it surrendered its nukes.

Caught twice, one would expect Ukraine to never be caught out again. Can't see how a negotiated settlement might ever be agreed when one side is so openly a repeated liar/abuser.
glennds
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1256
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:24 am

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by glennds » Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:28 am

seajay wrote:
Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:20 am
What with the starvation, and now more recent invasion by a vile terrorist neighbour, I'm certain that Ukraine deeply regrets having ever believed Russian promises when it surrendered its nukes.

Caught twice, one would expect Ukraine to never be caught out again. Can't see how a negotiated settlement might ever be agreed when one side is so openly a repeated liar/abuser.
Not to mention the US and UK security guarantees that were part of the 1992 agreement. Makes you wonder how any country can rely on any agreement when the counterparty cites change in change in President as a basis to renege.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8717
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:04 am

seajay wrote:
Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:20 am

What with the starvation, and now more recent invasion by a vile terrorist neighbour, I'm certain that Ukraine deeply regrets having ever believed Russian promises when it surrendered its nukes.

Caught twice, one would expect Ukraine to never be caught out again. Can't see how a negotiated settlement might ever be agreed when one side is so openly a repeated liar/abuser.


I recently heard that Ukraine would have never had had the capability to maintain a nuclear arsenal.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
glennds
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1256
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:24 am

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by glennds » Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:28 am

vnatale wrote:
Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:04 am
seajay wrote:
Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:20 am
What with the starvation, and now more recent invasion by a vile terrorist neighbour, I'm certain that Ukraine deeply regrets having ever believed Russian promises when it surrendered its nukes.

Caught twice, one would expect Ukraine to never be caught out again. Can't see how a negotiated settlement might ever be agreed when one side is so openly a repeated liar/abuser.
I recently heard that Ukraine would have never had had the capability to maintain a nuclear arsenal.
This wouldn't surprise me. I've also read there would have been international repercussions for UKR refusing to disarm. Presumably trade restrictions.
However, in a world that wants to move toward disarmament, what message does it send to other countries that once they disarm they can end up in the same predicament as UKR? This whole episode is a poster child for more armament.
Post Reply