Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by glennds » Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:32 pm

There are some very interesting things to watch. One of which is what changing sentiment if any, might be going on within Russia, if not with the recent Ukrainian gains, then at least with the continuing passage of time.
Hasn't history shown us over and over that protracted fighting = loss of stomach, for whichever side is not fighting for their existence? Especially if they were promised shock and awe?

Interesting commentary on NPR from a Russian professor on faculty at Johns Hopkins. Apparently there is a widely watched television program in Russia that went way into the danger zone recently talking about the war being a mistake and needing to end. He says on the show, they can comment so long as there is no direct criticism of Putin himself personally, but even then, the commentary was unusually bold. For cover, they took the approach of opining that Putin has been misled and the government needs to end it and negotiate for peace. Take a listen:

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/13/11226213 ... -to-resign
Let's see if Ukraine can eventually win by not losing. And what about the economic tourniquet? Where are the oligarchs?

A second interesting thing is Xi Jinping's position at the annual National Congress of the China Communist Party next month. Will he have the stomach for continued support if what is transpiring in Ukraine is not what was promised, or worse yet, embarrassing. I think I read he's meeting Putin in person this week in Uzbekistan for the first time since the war started.

On the subject of news being fake. I have a Ukrainian friend I'll be seeing in a couple of weeks. She has family in Ukraine and in Russia, talks to them regularly. Early on she told me the Russian family members were brainwashed and did not even believe on some levels that the war was happening. Meanwhile her son and DIL fled their apartment building and were living in the basement of a restaurant in Kyiv and spending their days making food rations for troops. I'm dying to know if there are changes in the perspectives of the Russian family members.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:48 pm

glennds wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:32 pm
Interesting commentary on NPR from a Russian professor on faculty at Johns Hopkins. Apparently there is a widely watched television program in Russia that went way into the danger zone recently talking about the war being a mistake and needing to end. He says on the show, they can comment so long as there is no direct criticism of Putin himself personally, but even then, the commentary was unusually bold. For cover, they took the approach of opining that Putin has been misled and the government needs to end it and negotiate for peace. Take a listen:

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/13/11226213 ... -to-resign
Let's see if Ukraine can eventually win by not losing. And what about the economic tourniquet? Where are the oligarchs?
(Haven't listened to the NPR piece) Here is a link on twitter to a subtitled video of a testy exchange on Russia TV, including an explicit warning by one of the talking heads about getting close to dangerous speech.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/stat ... qGp_XqDakg
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Dieter » Tue Sep 13, 2022 4:00 pm

Kbg wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:09 am
dualstow wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:32 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:43 pm
What makes you guys think any of the news on this is accurate? So much fake news everywhere, and well, Pravda.
I’m not sure if you’re referring to the Russians falling back or the media thing. If it’s the fallback, we can’t know for sure. Have to wait and see. Even the market reacted to it today — people are hopeful. Still, have to wait and see.
One spectator tip on wars...just watch the map. It doesn't lie. Sure there is lying, subterfuge, propaganda spin, deception, etc. on details...but the big picture is always pretty accurate. The scale is so large that it can't be covered up.

Last week when the "big southern" push was supposedly going on I personally was thinking..."this is not going well" because the map wasn't moving in a direction of success.
Aye, but was the south primarily a diversion, so, “no movement “ was a “success” in limiting casualties while keeping the Russians looking south

It’s so much easier following events from WW-II that have had many years of research

But yes, I do appreciate videos showing maps, while trying to remember that perhaps things aren’t as good or bleak as they appear
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:44 pm

Dieter wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 4:00 pm
Kbg wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:09 am
dualstow wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:32 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:43 pm
What makes you guys think any of the news on this is accurate? So much fake news everywhere, and well, Pravda.
I’m not sure if you’re referring to the Russians falling back or the media thing. If it’s the fallback, we can’t know for sure. Have to wait and see. Even the market reacted to it today — people are hopeful. Still, have to wait and see.
One spectator tip on wars...just watch the map. It doesn't lie. Sure there is lying, subterfuge, propaganda spin, deception, etc. on details...but the big picture is always pretty accurate. The scale is so large that it can't be covered up.

Last week when the "big southern" push was supposedly going on I personally was thinking..."this is not going well" because the map wasn't moving in a direction of success.
Aye, but was the south primarily a diversion, so, “no movement “ was a “success” in limiting casualties while keeping the Russians looking south
May very well have been. I've got access to the same info you guys do these days. But just to clarify...my point wasn't really the southern area was a failure or not working well. That was my take on the situation at the time based on the map and for the south there still isn't much substantive change.

My main point is the map does not lie and is the best tool I know of as to how things are "going" at a given point in time. It's a what indicator not a why indicator nor is it a predictor.

Today the map tells us UKR had a big win in the Kharkiv area.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:21 pm

🚧
@Vinny, I get that you don’t want to talk about the current war, at all costs, and that’s fine.
But as long as I have fingers, I will keep splitting - Thread on the U.S. and Mexico forked here - viewtopic.php?f=15&t=12728
🚧
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:27 pm

The pictures coming out of Izyum...grim stuff.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:53 am

Yeah...a piece of why I went off on Vinny's post. I hate false equivalency and that type of analytical reasoning...because A did something wrong in the past A can't criticize B. Criticizing both is the only moral stand one should take.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Sat Sep 17, 2022 8:52 am

Kbg wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:53 am
Yeah...a piece of why I went off on Vinny's post. I hate false equivalency and that type of analytical reasoning...because A did something wrong in the past A can't criticize B. Criticizing both is the only moral stand one should take.
Yes. In the whataboutism game I like to choose "both are bad".

(I also acknowledge, life is messy and it's never as black and white for a participant as for as a bystander, either geographically or temporally...but I'm a softie liberal so what do you expect).
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Sat Sep 17, 2022 8:55 am

Interesting analysis from the Perun video channel, just released this morning. And yes, I just listened to the whole 1.5 hours this morning.
https://youtu.be/B93tLs39pQo

Perun was a gamer channel pre-invasion but switched over to presenting hour-long powerpoint slide presentations discussing the larger economic/strategic aspects of this war.

He's sympathetic to the Ukranians but takes an even headed approach to the information provided, scouring both western and Russian sources. Really interesting stuff.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:56 pm

Interesting video on "Cognitive Warfare" By Col. Dr. Markus Reisner, at the Theresan Military Academy in Austria. Discusses the dynamics on the two sides as they try to shape public opinion. Video is in English.

Edit: here's the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MojUU8GgThM
Last edited by joypog on Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Kbg » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:55 am

The Austrians write some interesting stuff in the international political/security area. Generally always good for an alternative take on things that is also well founded.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:49 am

Really interesting analysis videos from a political philosopher, Russian expat about the recent mobilization.
https://youtu.be/SXLKRktT-Q8
https://youtu.be/HravTYSIVu4

His thesis is that Putin's basic deal with the populace is they stay out of politics and and he doesn't drag them into politics. But can't mobilize people without getting people politically mobilized.

Also delves into how the propaganda machine works with different views deliberately run on state run TV.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by seajay » Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:39 am

'Interesting' Russian weapon, create a half mile high radioactive tsunami wave that sweeps across the land to leave a radioactive desert

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irela ... russian-tv
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:28 am

^ Scary! ^
After the article, I couldn’t help but read the list of 50 Irish boys’ names and their meanings, plus the arguing in the comments.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:56 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:28 am
^ Scary! ^
After the article, I couldn’t help but read the list of 50 Irish boys’ names and their meanings, plus the arguing in the comments.
That's the internet today. Article on nukes, link to random subject, arguments in comments.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:59 am

Heartbreaking twitter thread of the continuing cost of war from someone who grew up with a father with untreated PTSD who returned from the Soviet war in Afghanistan.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 4968628225

This war is going to have generational consequences, even if it ended right now.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:16 am

joypog wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:59 am

Heartbreaking twitter thread of the continuing cost of war from someone who grew up with a father with untreated PTSD who returned from the Soviet war in Afghanistan.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 4968628225

This war is going to have generational consequences, even if it ended right now.


Is there any war that that would not be said?
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:32 am

Interesting developments: more protests against the war and against mobilization in Russia.
The Ukraine has destroyed 9 12 or so Russian planes aircraft (4 warplanes, 8 drones).

ALSO:
Over the past few months, Google’s Mandiant cybersecurity group has observed apparent coordination between pro-Russian hacking groups—ostensibly comprising patriotic citizen hackers—and cyber break-ins by Russia’s military intelligence agency, or GRU.
— WSJ https://on.wsj.com/3SA7BUF
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:19 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:16 am
joypog wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:59 am
Heartbreaking twitter thread of the continuing cost of war from someone who grew up with a father with untreated PTSD who returned from the Soviet war in Afghanistan.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 4968628225

This war is going to have generational consequences, even if it ended right now.
Is there any war that that would not be said?
None that i know of....but thinking of it makes it extra depressing to consider the consequences of impressing all the additional Russian men into the front line with no training and no support on the back end.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:35 pm

joypog wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:19 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:16 am

joypog wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:59 am

Heartbreaking twitter thread of the continuing cost of war from someone who grew up with a father with untreated PTSD who returned from the Soviet war in Afghanistan.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 4968628225

This war is going to have generational consequences, even if it ended right now.


Is there any war that that would not be said?

None that i know of....but thinking of it makes it extra depressing to consider the consequences of impressing all the additional Russian men into the front line with no training and no support on the back end.


Do you think anyone who entered the National Guard in our country ever thought that they'd end up in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan (?)? How much training did they have?
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:00 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:35 pm
joypog wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:19 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:16 am
joypog wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:59 am
Heartbreaking twitter thread of the continuing cost of war from someone who grew up with a father with untreated PTSD who returned from the Soviet war in Afghanistan.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 4968628225

This war is going to have generational consequences, even if it ended right now.
Is there any war that that would not be said?
None that i know of....but thinking of it makes it extra depressing to consider the consequences of impressing all the additional Russian men into the front line with no training and no support on the back end.
Do you think anyone who entered the National Guard in our country ever thought that they'd end up in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan (?)? How much training did they have?
More than 0 days or 2 weeks we're seeing in the news for the Russians.

That said, our National Guardsmen did sign up for the duty. So those had individuals had some agency in the matter, unlike the conscripts or draftees in Russia. Plus I suspect we have better support the Russians when they come home.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:45 pm

joypog wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:00 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:35 pm

joypog wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:19 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:16 am

joypog wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:59 am

Heartbreaking twitter thread of the continuing cost of war from someone who grew up with a father with untreated PTSD who returned from the Soviet war in Afghanistan.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 4968628225

This war is going to have generational consequences, even if it ended right now.


Is there any war that that would not be said?

None that i know of....but thinking of it makes it extra depressing to consider the consequences of impressing all the additional Russian men into the front line with no training and no support on the back end.


Do you think anyone who entered the National Guard in our country ever thought that they'd end up in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan (?)? How much training did they have?

More than 0 days or 2 weeks we're seeing in the news for the Russians.

That said, our National Guardsmen did sign up for the duty. So those had individuals had some agency in the matter, unlike the conscripts or draftees in Russia. Plus I suspect we have better support the Russians when they come home.


Maybe.

As far as having signed up for it? I think that 100% of them thought they'd get all these great benefits for giving two weeks of their life each year plus some weekends. I think that they were all shocked that they were actually inserted into an actual war with a fraction of the training that professional soldiers receive.

The support they get when they come home? I see a lot of "bumper sticker" support. Those who see actual combat don't get nearly the support they deserve and need.

From what may be considered a biased source:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2003/10/ng-o04.html

Pentagon calls up 10,000 National Guard for combat duty in Iraq

"It is possible, however, that the part-time Guard units will suffer a higher rate of casualties than the regular Army units they are replacing.

According to a report in the October 6 edition of the Nation magazine, a National Guard unit that was called up last December and has been in Iraq since the war began—the 3rd battalion of the 124th Florida-based National Guard Infantry—is ill-equipped compared to regular units and is being treated as cannon-fodder by Army commanders. Sixty-five percent of some companies of the 124th are college students from poorer areas of the state who signed up to get tuition at the Florida State University.

According to the Nation, the 124th’s rifles are retooled Vietnam-era M16s and its radios were so inadequate the guardsmen bought their own walkie-talkies. They have also purchased, from civilian contractors, their own night-vision equipment, flashlights, satellite phones and air-conditioners. The soldiers complain of lack of water and lack of fresh food.

The Nation reports: “The third [battalion] of the 124th is now attached to the newly arrived First Armored Division and when its time to raid suspected resistance cells it’s the Guardsmen who have to kick in the doors and clear the apartments.” A sergeant told the magazine: “The First AD wants us to catch bullets for them but won’t give us enough water, doesn’t let us wear do-rags [type of bandana] and makes us roll down our shirt sleeves so we look proper! Can you believe this s**t?”"

"A National Guard sergeant, who was told her unit was going home in June only to have the date changed to December, wrote: “The knocks on our morale are devastating. We’re physically able, but mentally and spiritually we’re dying. If Army National Guard retention is anything of importance, we need to have faith in our government and leaders. But we can’t see anyone taking a stand for soldiers... We’re slowly becoming frantic. I hear people say that they’re going to begin hurting themselves or others if they can’t go home. The helplessness our soldiers are feeling is indescribable...”

In response to the complaints, other soldiers, particularly professional NCOs and officers, are writing in with denunciations and demands that the soldiers “suck it up and drive on”. There is an instinctive concern among those who defend the Bush administration that such grievances reflect growing doubts within the broader American population about the legitimacy of the war. No “weapons of mass destruction” have been found and the Iraqi resistance is ongoing. Aggravating popular concerns about a Vietnam-style quagmire is the Bush administration’s refusal to give a timeline for ending the occupation of Iraq or reducing the number of troops in the country."
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by joypog » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:59 pm

Still, signing up for the National Guard is a choice specifically entailed the risk of going to war...which is a far cry from just being a male citizen between 18-60 being pressganged into service with a couple weeks of training before going to the front.

That article brings up some interesting supply chain issues, which twitter is gleefully pointing out is a problem in the Russian callup. Seems that quickly mobilizing an army is a problem. It's why going to Iraq was such a folly.

Similarly I'm certain that real US post-war support for vets is subpar. LIke any good organization the USA will put the least possible effort into caring for vets after services rendered...but still it could be much worse.

The VA got issues, but I'd bet it's far ahead of whatever the Russians don't offer.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:07 pm

joypog wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:59 pm

Still, signing up for the National Guard is a choice specifically entailed the risk of going to war...which is a far cry from just being a male citizen between 18-60 being pressganged into service with a couple weeks of training before going to the front.

That article brings up some interesting supply chain issues, which twitter is gleefully pointing out is a problem in the Russian callup. Seems that quickly mobilizing an army is a problem. It's why going to Iraq was such a folly.

Similarly I'm certain that real US post-war support for vets is subpar. LIke any good organization the USA will put the least possible effort into caring for vets after services rendered...but still it could be much worse.

The VA got issues, but I'd bet it's far ahead of whatever the Russians don't offer.


Most likely all of what you say is true...
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:29 pm

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