Putin Invades Ukraine II

[ppnewbie]

Here is a post from a friend who works closely with someone in Ukraine - apologies if it’s offensive. Just thought it would be good to see some unfiltered real time impressions

I have felt very close to Ukraine this past month. I work with some IT consultants in Ukraine and my closest contact stayed in Kyiv and volunteered for the Territorial Defense Force. He was able to move his parents to Lviv near the Polish border right before the invasion but he went back to Kyiv. I Skype with him several times per week and it's been quite an emotional experience hearing about the war from his perspective. He spends his nights making Molotov cocktails and he was very proud that his cocktails destroyed a Russian supply column west of his hometown of Vyshneve. It's surreal looking at the Google Maps photos of Vyshneve. Town of 50K people about the same size as ####. Now with normal citizens defending their town with AK47s, NLAW anti-tank missiles, and Molotov cocktails.

He's very anti-Russian (of course) and is coming to the Portugal or US as soon as he can. He appreciates the support that US and EU are providing.

From a supply standpoint he says they are well stocked with rifles, ammo, AT weapons, but are lacking secondary supplies. Mostly helmets, protective vests, gloves.

[dualstow]

interesting. What is AT. Anti-tank?

[Kriegsspiel]

It's very tough to figure out what's really going on on over there. The information/psychological operations being run are pretty effective, and are force-multiplied by well-deserved low trust in news companies and the government. Ned Price's press conference being a prime example. That said, my sense is that Russia is in control of the country and the airspace. It looks like the only territory Ukraine's military controls is inside the encirclement just to the west of the Donbass.

Other than that it looks like they're hole up in the cities, which is no surprise. Just like I said 8 years ago, they'd face certain death if they were out trying to maneuver on the Russians in the open. It seems doubly smart since the Russians look to be avoiding civilian casualties wherever possible, and also since they get better PR fodder.

[Kriegsspiel]

Here is a post from a friend who works closely with someone in Ukraine - apologies if it’s offensive. Just thought it would be good to see some unfiltered real time impressions

I have felt very close to Ukraine this past month. I work with some IT consultants in Ukraine and my closest contact stayed in Kyiv and volunteered for the Territorial Defense Force. He was able to move his parents to Lviv near the Polish border right before the invasion but he went back to Kyiv. I Skype with him several times per week and it's been quite an emotional experience hearing about the war from his perspective. He spends his nights making Molotov cocktails and he was very proud that his cocktails destroyed a Russian supply column west of his hometown of Vyshneve. It's surreal looking at the Google Maps photos of Vyshneve. Town of 50K people about the same size as ####. Now with normal citizens defending their town with AK47s, NLAW anti-tank missiles, and Molotov cocktails.

He's very anti-Russian (of course) and is coming to the Portugal or US as soon as he can. He appreciates the support that US and EU are providing.

From a supply standpoint he says they are well stocked with rifles, ammo, AT weapons, but are lacking secondary supplies. Mostly helmets, protective vests, gloves.

No offense to your friend's co-worker, but how does he know what "well-stocked" means WRT military equipment? Judging by the passive voice ("his cocktails" destroyed, not "he" destroyed), I'd guess maybe he's helping out a Ukrainian military unit?

[I Shrugged]

Thanks foglifter!

Artificial borders often seem to feature bad blood among tribes.

Aren’t they mostly artificial, all over the world?

Yes of course. The ones established by colonization or empire seem to be the most problematic. I get the impression that the Balkans and the Caucasus still feature some problem borders, and many restless tribes.

[ppnewbie]

interesting. What is AT. Anti-tank?

I’ll check with my friend.

[ppnewbie]

Here is a post from a friend who works closely with someone in Ukraine - apologies if it’s offensive. Just thought it would be good to see some unfiltered real time impressions

I have felt very close to Ukraine this past month. I work with some IT consultants in Ukraine and my closest contact stayed in Kyiv and volunteered for the Territorial Defense Force. He was able to move his parents to Lviv near the Polish border right before the invasion but he went back to Kyiv. I Skype with him several times per week and it's been quite an emotional experience hearing about the war from his perspective. He spends his nights making Molotov cocktails and he was very proud that his cocktails destroyed a Russian supply column west of his hometown of Vyshneve. It's surreal looking at the Google Maps photos of Vyshneve. Town of 50K people about the same size as ####. Now with normal citizens defending their town with AK47s, NLAW anti-tank missiles, and Molotov cocktails.

He's very anti-Russian (of course) and is coming to the Portugal or US as soon as he can. He appreciates the support that US and EU are providing.

From a supply standpoint he says they are well stocked with rifles, ammo, AT weapons, but are lacking secondary supplies. Mostly helmets, protective vests, gloves.

No offense to your friend's co-worker, but how does he know what "well-stocked" means WRT military equipment? Judging by the passive voice ("his cocktails" destroyed, not "he" destroyed), I'd guess maybe he's helping out a Ukrainian military unit?

Good questions. I was wondering how he could say “well stocked” and gold catch on Molotov cocktail comment. I’ll ask. Plus it seems a little strange that m-cocktails can stop army. Let’s see what he says.

[ppnewbie]

interesting. What is AT. Anti-tank?

I’ll check with my friend.

Yep Antitank. NLAW and Javelins

[dualstow]

…
That said, my sense is that Russia is in control of the country and the airspace. It looks like the only territory Ukraine's military controls is inside the encirclement just to the west of the Donbass.
…

The country? Already? The Drive article that came up still puts the odds on the Russians despite the initial setbacks, but- how do you define ‘in control of’ — you mean the borders and intercity travel? Or something more?

Also, what sources are you reading?

[Kriegsspiel]

Good questions. I was wondering how he could say “well stocked” and gold catch on Molotov cocktail comment. I’ll ask. Plus it seems a little strange that m-cocktails can stop army. Let’s see what he says.

It could have been something in the translation or his English, I was just curious.

Molotovs can damage the tires on wheeled vehicles. Or maybe the unit just turned around when they experienced resistance. Maybe he was being hyperbolic, who knows.

[ppnewbie]

Good questions. I was wondering how he could say “well stocked” and gold catch on Molotov cocktail comment. I’ll ask. Plus it seems a little strange that m-cocktails can stop army. Let’s see what he says.

It could have been something in the translation or his English, I was just curious.

Molotovs can damage the tires on wheeled vehicles. Or maybe the unit just turned around when they experienced resistance. Maybe he was being hyperbolic, who knows.

My friend said he’s in the national guard. But that raises the question of why is the national guard using Molotov cocktails! That’s a big red flag. Anyway, I’ll stop for now. I don’t want to badger my friend any longer.

[Kriegsspiel]

…
That said, my sense is that Russia is in control of the country and the airspace. It looks like the only territory Ukraine's military controls is inside the encirclement just to the west of the Donbass.
…

The country? Already?

Well, the parts that seem to matter to them. Eastern Ukraine and Kiev. It appears they can hit targets in western Ukraine with missiles and airstrikes at will.

As I said before, I don't think you can really trust what you read, but if we take an "anonymous US defense official" as quoted by WaPo at his word, the Russians flew up to 300 air missions in one day, mostly airstrikes, and the only place where Ukraine has effective air defense is Kiev, which sounds like air superiority for all intents and purposes.

The Drive article that came up still puts the odds on the Russians despite the initial setbacks

I think the author of that article was mostly wrong.

• He said he doesn't see any positive outcomes for Russia. I think Russia would consider the destruction of the Azov Battalion to be a positive outcome. I'm sure they'd consider a regime-change to a less pro-Western, more pro-Russian one to be positive as well.
• It's not a sure-thing that Russia would stay to "fight a counterinsurgency," either. They might pack up and leave after installing a more friendly regime, break up Ukraine into separate countries, or whatever. Speculative.
• On that note, he thinks Ukraine will turn into another Afghanistan. What if Putin turns it into another Chechnya? The Chechens have become Putin's allies after absolutely brutal fighting against the Russians.
• While the Russians didn't completely dominate the entirety of the war, they seem to be doing enough to achieve their objectives.
• He thinks the war is "baffling." I think there's been enough said about Russia's motivations for invading that this shouldn't be baffling to anyone.
• My personal view is that his idea of arming an insurgency to the teeth is Bad, and would lead to the complete destruction of Ukraine and is probably the worst outcome for the common Ukrainian. In his view, the "combat experienced" civilian insurgents will be joined by the "battle-hardened army." I may be wrong but, like I said, it appears that the Ukrainian military is being destroyed in the east. I'd imagine Ukraine would be much better off without the Zelensky government, the EU, and NATO, as opposed to being completely destroyed fighting an insurgency.
• I don't disagree with what he said about the sanctions though. We are attacking them, economically, and it is causing huge damage. I don't think they were a good idea, but I think we got ourselves into a predicament without any good options.
  
  come at me bros!

[Kriegsspiel]

My friend said he’s in the national guard. But that raises the question of why is the national guard using Molotov cocktails! That’s a big red flag. Anyway, I’ll stop for now. I don’t want to badger my friend any longer.

Maybe he meant the Territorial Defense Force.

[dualstow]

As I said before, I don't think you can really trust what you read, but if we take an "anonymous US defense official" as quoted by WaPo at his word, the Russians flew up to 300 air missions in one day, mostly airstrikes, and the only place where Ukraine has effective air defense is Kiev, which sounds like air superiority for all intents and purposes.

(DS) The Drive article that came up still puts the odds on the Russians despite the initial setbacks

I think the author of that article was mostly wrong.

I don’t know anything about his background, but there’s always a chance that he’s full of it. While it’s hard for most of us to make predictions, I agree with him that *if* they stuck around to occupy Ukraine, they’d have a rough time of it. You mentioned that NATO arming the resistance to the teeth would be bad for everyone. I guess that’s part of it.

What if Putin turns it into another Chechnya? The Chechens have become Putin's allies after absolutely brutal fighting against the Russians.

I think I read that in addition to the fighting, Putin basically bribed powerful warlords to be on his side. Ramzan Kadyrov is the son of one of them. (Maybe it was that long fiona hill interview that desert posted).

Anything’s possible, although NATO seems more invested in Ukraine than in Chechnya.

[*]It's not a sure-thing that Russia would stay to "fight a counterinsurgency," either. They might pack up and leave after installing a more friendly regime, break up Ukraine into separate countries, or whatever. Speculative.

I guess he’s saying that the Russian-friendly regime would be killed. To prevent that, we’re back to the occupying force maybe.
Breaking it up into statelets, that’s an interesting idea. Divide and conquer over time.

My personal view is that his idea of arming an insurgency to the teeth is Bad, and would lead to the complete destruction of Ukraine and is probably the worst outcome for the common Ukrainian. In his view, the "combat experienced" civilian insurgents will be joined by the "battle-hardened army." I may be wrong but, like I said, it appears that the Ukrainian military is being destroyed in the east. I'd imagine Ukraine would be much better off without the Zelensky government, the EU, and NATO, as opposed to being completely destroyed fighting an insurgency.

Lot of food for thought in that paragraph!

[vnatale]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/a ... n_fighters

Why some foreign fighters - including Canadians - quit plans to battle for Ukraine

[I Shrugged]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/a ... n_fighters

Why some foreign fighters - including Canadians - quit plans to battle for Ukraine

Thanks Vinny. That article seems like real reporting, not propaganda.

[dualstow]

This line had me smirking a little.

But some foreign fighters have found the experience unexpectedly frightening and dangerous.

That’s interesting, though, about the guy who was asked to sign an indefinite contract. And the idea that the International.. Legion? — damn, I just lost access to the article — could be Zelensky’s way of making it look like the world against Russia. For me, it reminded me of foreign fighters joining ISIS, except for, in my opinion, a better cause.

[dualstow]

“Irpin is liberated”
https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/15 ... 9270070287?

[dualstow]

Cruise missiles launched from Belarus have hit Kyiv and some other cities.
Cease fire talks are scheduled for Tuesday in Istanbul.

[dualstow]

Me neither. I’m not even optimistic about Irpin supposedly being liberated. It doesn’t have as much weight as Kriegs’ assessment that the Ukrainians are mostly “holed up in cities.”

[dualstow]

I’m not familiar with the source. Interesting if true. Certainly plausible, since many conscripts are from the boonies, too.
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1508398726099914756

and later in the same thread:

They were told all the times that Ukraine is a failed state with people who work like slaves in Europe and have nothing. Now they see the reality where every gasoline station has a computer-operated coffee machine with 30 types of teas, coffee and hot chocolate, and a whisky bar.

[dualstow]

I got this from Медуза/Meduza’s Telegram channel (translated with Google):

"If Putin's mission was to "denazify" Ukraine, then he destroyed the evidence of the crimes of real Nazis"

The American historian Gregory Parmuth studied the crimes of the occupiers in Ukraine for years (we are talking about the Second World War) and he himself moved to live in Ukraine. The archive in Chernigov, where he worked, was destroyed by rockets on the second day of the war, thousands of unique archival documents were lost. Meduza publishes historian's story.

https://mdza.io/Fcjw13xxv00

[Kriegsspiel]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... 6003601411

FWIW:

Among the first English language media figures to convey the Ukrainian government’s narrative of the incident to a mass audience was Illia Ponomarenko, a Kiev-based, US-trained reporter who has managed to rack up over a million Twitter followers since Russia’s invasion began.

Ponomarenko happened to work for the Kyiv Independent, an outlet that has functioned as one of the most potent US information weapons in Ukraine. The paper had been set up with assistance from the National Endowment for Democracy, a US intelligence cut-out, and an “emergency grant” from its EU-funded cousin, the European Endowment for Democracy.

For his part, Ponomarenko has referred to the Azov Battalion as his “brothers in arms”, and boasted of “chilling out” with its fighters near “enemy lines.” link

The National Endowment for Democracy (the "intelligence cut out") was banned in Russia due to their belief in its role in the Maidan protests that overthrew Ukraine's president in 2014. And according to Pro Publica, a NED president "told David Ignatius in a 1991 interview that: 'A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.'"

[dualstow]

FWIW:

Oh man, I love that guy. He conveniently left that part of out of his bio.

[Kriegsspiel]

I just looked at the "Irpin is liberated" chick's bio, what a coincidence! She's also from the Kiev Independent.