Putin Invades Ukraine II

[Mountaineer]

We may not have killed these people directly by our own bombs or any other means but it was a direct result of Bush deciding to initiate the war and the irresponsible way he carried it out.

You can certainly argue those points about Bush, but I don't know of any definition of "war crime" that includes indirect loss of life. As opposed to, you know, bombing maternity hospitals and art schools or whatever. Completely different thing.

It could be the same, though, in terms of how you can be just as guilty from an act of omission as you can from an act of commission.

At the moment I'm more interested in addressing the "W is as bad as Putin" thought that seems to be circulating here than WWII.

You're saying Bush is guilty of an act of "omission" that is the same as directly bombing civilians? Sorry, that just isn't true.

Bush being guilty of the omission of not providing proper governance after removing the one in place resulted in far more deaths to civilians than anything Russia has done so far.

Should not our main concern be how many civilian end up getting killed no matter what the methods?

When the Gulf War (first one) was going on in 1990 I asked a coworker what was so bad with Saddan killing his own citizens by "gas". How was it any worse than killing them with a bullet or any other means? In all cases he kills them.

I was totally shocked by my coworker's response. I knew he was an German immigrant but I had had not idea until that point that he had been in Dresden during our Fire Bombing of it! And, he then went on to describe all the horrors he saw and experienced while we were fire bombing his city.

Quite an interesting story about the coworker from Dresden. I'm sure that was fascinating.

You ask whether our "main concern" should be how many civilians end up dead. Maybe that should be, but the question at hand is who is a war criminal and who isn't. Take a homicide trial for example (I say "homicide" because all murders are homicides but not all homicides are murders). Let's say the possible outcomes from the jury are murder-1, murder-2, manslaughter, negligent homicide, and just plain accident.

In all those cases the victim is dead. Isn't that what we should care about? String up the guy! The other guy is dead and that's all that matters!

No, that's not how it works. Prosecuting a war of aggression and intentionally killing civilians in order to achieve your aims is murder-1. (Maybe -2?) "Not providing proper governance" is at worst negligent homicide.

As usual you provide good counters to any arguments that I make! I don't have anything to come back on this particular discussion regarding comparing today's acts to what Bush did or did not do in the Iraq War.

However, I will continue to bring World War II in it and both of these conclude that we WERE guilty of war crimes. Pure acts of commission:

Was it a War Crime to Bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

http://discerninghistory.com/2016/10/wa ... -nagasaki/

Why Aren’t Hiroshima and Nagasaki War Crimes?

https://www.fff.org/2016/05/12/arent-hi ... ar-crimes/

I think the laws you describe above regarding homicide are far move developed and come into play far more than the laws of war crimes and how often they come into play. In the case of war crimes .... whether or not something is a war crime is often in the eyes of the beholder, i.e., whose side you are on and, most importantly, if you won that war.

Vinny (and all interested in the topic), re. your interest in WWII and your comment/questions about war crimes. I just finished the Dan Carlin Hardcore History "Supernova in the East" series of podcasts. You might have interest as there is an extensive discussion of why both sides (Japan/USA) did what they did. Be sure to listen to the podcasts in order if you choose so to do. https://www.dancarlin.com/hardcore-history-series/

... Mountaineer

[flyingpylon]

Just curious about the thought process among some of the posters in this thread, so a couple of questions:

• When a civilian building is attacked in Ukraine, and Russia denies that it did it, is it possible that Zelensky's administration ordered it in an attempt to maintain power by pulling other nations into the conflict? If not, how can we know one way or the other who really attacked the building?
• When a civilian building is attacked in Ukraine, and even if Russia does not deny doing it, is it possible that the Ukrainian military used the civilian building as a "human shield" by placing military targets such as heavy artillery on or near it? I have seen claims to that effect. How can we know one way or the other?

If we can't know one way or the other, is it possibly a bit dangerous to throw all of our support behind one side or the other in this conflict halfway around the world?

+1

I don’t know how anyone not directly involved in the situation thinks they can truly believe anything at all coming from the various “sides” in this conflict given the increasingly overt narrative engineering we’ve been subjected to in recent years.

[vnatale]

Vinny (and all interested in the topic), re. your interest in WWII and your comment/questions about war crimes. I just finished the Dan Carlin Hardcore History "Supernova in the East" series of podcasts. You might have interest as there is an extensive discussion of why both sides (Japan/USA) did what they did. Be sure to listen to the podcasts in order if you choose so to do. https://www.dancarlin.com/hardcore-history-series/

... Mountaineer

Thank you for the above!

[dualstow]

Just curious about the thought process among some of the posters in this thread, so a couple of questions:

• When a civilian building is attacked in Ukraine, and Russia denies that it did it, is it possible that Zelensky's administration ordered it in an attempt to maintain power by pulling other nations into the conflict? If not, how can we know one way or the other who really attacked the building?
• When a civilian building is attacked in Ukraine, and even if Russia does not deny doing it, is it possible that the Ukrainian military used the civilian building as a "human shield" by placing military targets such as heavy artillery on or near it? I have seen claims to that effect. How can we know one way or the other?

If we can't know one way or the other, is it possibly a bit dangerous to throw all of our support behind one side or the other in this conflict halfway around the world?

War is dirty and I’m not saying Zelensky is some perfect white knight. One hears things like men of fighting age are not allowed to leave the country; they have to stay and fight. I’ll buy that one. It’s borderline reasonable, as they were especially desperate at the start of this war.

Closer to your specific questions: of course it’s possible that weapons were hidden in or near a civilian area. Don’t the Palestinians pull that stunt every week?
Did/would the Ukrainian military attack its own civilian building? I mean it’s possible, but I think it’s highly unlikely. There’s a new Atlantic article that argues that Ukraine is actually winning the war, despite the reluctance of Western skeptics to admit it. Despite Russia’s technical and numerical superiority, they’re getting their asses handed to them. Ukraine is already receiving all kinds of assistance, and they’ve been training and building up their military since 2014 when Crimea was taken.

Additionally, there is footage of the Russians attacking all kinds of civiilian areas. Most recently a mall. Occam’s razor says the Russians did it. All of the attacks on civilians. And finally, this is Putin’s MO. Look at what he did to Grozhny. When he’s losing, he levels cities.

Zelensky is naive. He is, after all a comedian, not really a politician and certainly not a military strategist. The fact that he implored Israel to send over the Iron Dome when the Iron Dome is incapable of stopping Russian missiles shows just how naive he is. (It also takes months of training to use the Iron Dome effectively). You could say one of his generals called in an attack on a civilian building, and i realize that this is the everything-is-a-false-flag forum as much as it is the permanent portfolio forum, but you’re going way out of your way to avoid the most likely reality: the Russians did it.

[dualstow]

Alexei Navalny, the main opposition, sentenced to 9 years in prison.

[dualstow]

Russia’s tank factory is out of parts
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506113379118764033

[I Shrugged]

The Babylon Bee:

99.9% Of Americans Support Sending Mitt Romney To Fight In Ukraine.

The poll was taken shortly after Romney strongly advocated for escalating conflict with Russia over the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

[dualstow]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... 6003601411

[boglerdude]

> If we can't know one way or the other, is it possibly a bit dangerous to throw all of our support behind one side

Yeah, but social media needs an enemy and Blackrock expanding profits, so I'd rather they attack another country and not "conservative" Americans. So I'm siding with pro-mask/lockdown dualstow on the war

Also combat footage is cool https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... top&t=week

[dualstow]

..Yeah, but social media needs an enemy and Blackrock expanding profits, so I'd rather they attack another country and not "conservative" Americans. So I'm siding with pro-mask/lockdown dualstow on the war
..

hey now..I am not pro-lockdown.

It is true, however that Putin “cured” covid.

[dualstow]

Fair question.

For months, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and many other Russian officials repeatedly denied Russia planned to invade Ukraine – and then invaded anyway.
I put this to Peskov: after all those lies, how can anyone ever believe Russia in future negotiations?

- Christiane Amanpour
https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1506347979673939972

[Tortoise]

Fair question.

For months, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and many other Russian officials repeatedly denied Russia planned to invade Ukraine – and then invaded anyway.
I put this to Peskov: after all those lies, how can anyone ever believe Russia in future negotiations?

- Christiane Amanpour
https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1506347979673939972

Did you watch the entire video clip? After Amanpour asked her question, Peskov replied that the situation changed suddenly over just a couple of days when Ukrainian troops started gathering near Donbas, presumably to launch some kind of offensive on that region.

So one possibility seems to be that when Russian officials stated repeatedly prior to January that they didn't plan to invade Ukraine, it was true at that time, but then the sudden Ukrainian troop buildup near Donbas rapidly changed the situation and Russia responded.

I'm not saying I know one way or the other. Just pointing out the possibility.

[dualstow]

Did you watch the entire video clip? After Amanpour asked her question, Peskov replied that the situation changed suddenly over just a couple of days when Ukrainian troops started gathering near Donbas, presumably to launch some kind of offensive on that region.

So one possibility seems to be that when Russian officials stated repeatedly prior to January that they didn't plan to invade Ukraine, it was true at that time, but then the sudden Ukrainian troop buildup near Donbas rapidly changed the situation and Russia responded.
…

Of course I watched the entire clip.
My answer to that would be, did the Russians say, Look we’ve got these troops massed on the border for a reason. We’d really like to avoid a conflict, but if XYZ then we’re going to be forced to attack you. Here are our terms - ? No. They bulshitted everyone saying there is no way we’re going to launch an invasion into Ukraine. It’s not going to happen.
I’m not sure who believed them at that point, and it didn’t really mesh with Putin’s speeches, but that’s what they said.

I understand you’re not swallowing the noble Ukraine narrative wholesale. And I’m not putting a blue and yellow flag in my window to signal how righteous I am — I see it in my neighborhood and roll my eyes. But, I am genuinely curious as to what you think is going on. Beyond the nobody-knows-for-sure, you must be leaning in one direction. A little bit?

[ppnewbie]

Russia wants payment for natural gas in Rubles.

[dualstow]

…
If dualstow claims that the moon is made of rock and metals, and I claim it's made from blue cheese, no rational person will conclude "well, we just don't know what the moon is made of."
…

One thing I am sure of: Motley Crue is composed of cheese metal.

Is anyone else surprised at how shitty the Russians are doing in this war?
I didn’t know much about the Ukrainian arms buildup and training going back to 2014 until recently. I did know that urban warfare favors the defenders.
However, it seems like just yesterday I was sending kriegsspiel a private message with the youtube clip of a Russian army recruitment ad vs the U.S. ad with flowers and the recruit’s two Moms. The Russian military looked pretty cool.

The reality is different. Here’s what I have gleaned from the mainstream media, which I know is anathema to the gyroscopic spirit:

- A lot of Russian soldiers involved in the invasion didn’t realize they were going to war at all.
- Some soldiers expected to be welcomed in Ukraine for a bloodless takeover.
- Russians don’t have a lot of noncommissioned officers who can provide decisive leadership on the battlefield. Very high-ranking officers were on the front lines, hence all the dead Russian generals. Without leadership on the battlefield, soldiers may go with their reflexes, like huddling together when a convoy is attacked instead of spreading out.
- Encrypted communications often failed, so the Russians had to use open channels that could be intercepted or jammed, hence more dead Russian officers.
- The advanced Russian military hardware that I’ve read about from time to time does exist, but many tanks and other vehicles have fallen into disrepair. Vehicles, weapons and other hardware have not been maintained.

The army is one of the most popular organizations in Russia, but it turns out they stink.

[flyingpylon]

Truth is ascertainable, even in this nihilistic, "post truth" era.

Link?

[dualstow]

@

Well, I just heard Janez Jansa, Prime Minister of Slovenia, agree that Putin is a war criminal. (George W did not come up).

[glennds]

+1

I don’t know how anyone not directly involved in the situation thinks they can truly believe anything at all coming from the various “sides” in this conflict given the increasingly overt narrative engineering we’ve been subjected to in recent years.

This is a common refrain now. When there are two "sides" to an issue, some will claim that the truth is impossible to identify. I reject that. It's always been a challenge to separate fact from fiction, but it's seldom impossible, and certainly not with the flow of information we have now. It does take a bit of work though.

The background and trustworthiness of sources is so important. And when two sources disagree, go look for additional reasonable sources.

If dualstow claims that the moon is made of rock and metals, and I claim it's made from blue cheese, no rational person will conclude "well, we just don't know what the moon is made of."

Truth is ascertainable, even in this nihilistic, "post truth" era.

Someone mentioned Occam's Razor. Is it possible that the Ukranians are bombing their own cities for political advantage? I guess it is as much as anything is possible.
Is it likely? Almost certainly not.

“Don't you believe in flying saucers, they ask me? Don't you believe in telepathy? — in ancient astronauts? — in the Bermuda triangle? — in life after death?
No, I reply. No, no, no, no, and again no.
One person recently, goaded into desperation by the litany of unrelieved negation, burst out "Don't you believe in anything?"
Yes", I said. "I believe in evidence. I believe in observation, measurement, and reasoning, confirmed by independent observers. I'll believe anything, no matter how wild and ridiculous, if there is evidence for it. The wilder and more ridiculous something is, however, the firmer and more solid the evidence will have to be.”
― Isaac Asimov

[vnatale]

…
If dualstow claims that the moon is made of rock and metals, and I claim it's made from blue cheese, no rational person will conclude "well, we just don't know what the moon is made of."
…

One thing I am sure of: Motley Crue is composed of cheese metal.

Is anyone else surprised at how shitty the Russians are doing in this war?
I didn’t know much about the Ukrainian arms buildup and training going back to 2014 until recently. I did know that urban warfare favors the defenders.
However, it seems like just yesterday I was sending kriegsspiel a private message with the youtube clip of a Russian army recruitment ad vs the U.S. ad with flowers and the recruit’s two Moms. The Russian military looked pretty cool.

The reality is different. Here’s what I have gleaned from the mainstream media, which I know is anathema to the gyroscopic spirit:

- A lot of Russian soldiers involved in the invasion didn’t realize they were going to war at all.
- Some soldiers expected to be welcomed in Ukraine for a bloodless takeover.
- Russians don’t have a lot of noncommissioned officers who can provide decisive leadership on the battlefield. Very high-ranking officers were on the front lines, hence all the dead Russian generals. Without leadership on the battlefield, soldiers may go with their reflexes, like huddling together when a convoy is attacked instead of spreading out.
- Encrypted communications often failed, so the Russians had to use open channels that could be intercepted or jammed, hence more dead Russian officers.
- The advanced Russian military hardware that I’ve read about from time to time does exist, but many tanks and other vehicles have fallen into disrepair. Vehicles, weapons and other hardware have not been maintained.

The army is one of the most popular organizations in Russia, but it turns out they stink.

!!!!!!!!!!

Just about all you write is generally worthwhile to read. But you really outdid yourself on this one!

[vnatale]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... ready-lost

Russia Has Already Lost

There is no clear path to a positive outcome for Russia in Ukraine. It could win every future battle, but it has already lost.

BY TYLER ROGOWAY MARCH 23, 2022

[dualstow]

Great article, Vin.
You know how you like to create spreadsheets? I like to take notes. The impetus is to lay down the basic concepts, but I end up listing things like placenames, Russian terms and names of entities, weapons used, words I’ve never seen before (from your Drive article: deconfliction). Links to articles.

I’ll probably never look at it again once I stop adding to it.

[vnatale]

Great article, Vin.
You know how you like to create spreadsheets? I like to take notes. The impetus is to lay down the basic concepts, but I end up listing things like placenames, Russian terms and names of entities, weapons used, words I’ve never seen before (from your Drive article: deconfliction). Links to articles.

I’ll probably never look at it again once I stop adding to it.

Sounds like a good system. And, oftentimes, I will also never look at my notes that I put in worksheets. Excel if my favored tool for all - numbers and words.

[dualstow]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... ready-lost
Russia Has Already Lost / Tyler Rogoway
..

Agreed, good article. This portion stood out to me:

Beyond all that, Russia is now labeled an evil global pariah — a mass murderer of countless civilians — and is now radioactive in terms of most trade, geopolitical cooperation, and basic trustworthiness according to most of the world.

As a result of its own actions, the very regime that started this baffling war could soon find itself fighting for survival domestically. Carefully edited propaganda can only go so far. When shelves and bellies are empty, financial futures turn into a black hole, and many sons disappear into a mystical conflict in Ukraine, of all places, public perception of the war will be harder and harder to control and negative sentiment will be harder to suppress.

It’s ironic that dictators sometimes try to rile up citizens into nationalism by pointing at a perceived enemy, or by starting wars. Kind of shot himself in the foot, didn’t he.

[ppnewbie]

If the West bask in a victory and righteousness porn this could be a global end event years down the road. Calling Putin a war criminal is a terrible mistake, IMHO. I believe we have to give a Putin and the Russians a way out, if Putin wants a way out.

Russia
India
Saudi Arabia
Iran
China
Africa - All pretty much of these pretty much are not our friends.
Maybe - ASEAN countries - Not sure how the align

The world is starting to move on without us. Oil starting to be traded in non dollars, China / Russia trading in Yuan.

[ppnewbie]

I wonder what the odds of an unexpected coup in El Salvador are these days or a sudden change in leadership?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dvPN3Vd6l8

Also I hear there are betting odds on the methods the contracted third party is going to use:

Car Accident
Accidentally chokes on a chicken wing
Plane goes down
Simply disappearing