Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Xan » Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:38 am

Desert wrote:
Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:05 am
Maddy wrote:
Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:19 am
When a story line is advanced by all of the New World Order political puppets (and right on cue, on the heels of the dissolving CoVid narrative) and when that story line is adopted hook, line and sinker by the mainstream media and the Hollywood elites, you can pretty reliably figure that the truth lies somewhere else.

Here's a very different perspective, put forward by Paul Craig Roberts, former U.S. Treasury Secretary: https://usawatchdog.com/no-shooting-war ... g-roberts/
When one can deny a worldwide pandemic and an invasion in progress, it's evidence that the total radicalization in the QAnon/Infowars/far-right disinformation ecosystem is complete. It's both sad and evil. Unfortunately, arguing will not help, because the propaganda sources are too plentiful, entertaining, and profitable.
To me the scary thing isn't holding heterodox opinions on however many subjects, but the preemptive foreclosure of the option that perhaps a vast conspiracy isn't the correct answer to all situations.

If there's something going on that there's general agreement about, then that's a golden opportunity to try to heal some of the rifts going on. To decide ahead of time that because there seems to be general agreement about something, that something else must really be going on, is to have rift-making as one's main goal, rather than living together as a nation, rather than the pursuit of truth. It is to grasp at ever more tenuous theories, only because the preconception is that one or the other such crazy theory has to be right.

I don't know how crazy the alternate theories are or aren't, because I have no idea what the alternate theories are. The only one I've seen was the prediction that there wouldn't be shooting.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:44 pm

RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Tortoise » Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:03 pm

Xan wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:38 am
If there's something going on that there's general agreement about, then that's a golden opportunity to try to heal some of the rifts going on. To decide ahead of time that because there seems to be general agreement about something, that something else must really be going on, is to have rift-making as one's main goal, rather than living together as a nation, rather than the pursuit of truth. It is to grasp at ever more tenuous theories, only because the preconception is that one or the other such crazy theory has to be right.
Trust in established Western institutions has been eroding in recent years, possibly beyond repair. The erosion has accelerated after Covid -- for good reason, IMO. That is why conspiracy theories are proliferating in populist circles.

Without trust, there can be no peace and prosperity. Trust is the foundation of Western civilization.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Tortoise » Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:47 pm

Huh. Interesting. It's like my previous post wasn't even read.

Enjoy your Two Minutes Hate against the wackiest conspiracy theorists, guys. Criticizing them is easier than seriously discussing the views of the more moderate majority of populists.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:11 pm

Desert wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:56 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:03 pm

Trust in established Western institutions has been eroding in recent years, possibly beyond repair. The erosion has accelerated after Covid -- for good reason, IMO. That is why conspiracy theories are proliferating in populist circles.

Without trust, there can be no peace and prosperity. Trust is the foundation of Western civilization.


I totally agree with the first and last statements. There is an explosion of conspiracy theories in recent years, and I think it's been caused by a combination of factors. Here are two I think I are important:

1. jhogue mentioned a very interesting, old article here. Quoting jhogue:

If you have not read it, see Richard Hofstader's The Paranoid Style in American Politics. He concluded that populist conspiracy theories are deeply embedded in American political culture and re-emerge in times of stress and upheaval-- like right now.


The Covid pandemic was a huge stressor. It was instantly politicized, which was just tragic.

2. The explosion of available media choices, many questionable, and some pure propaganda. Facebook is a primary pathway for nonsense to be spread around. Our society isn't very good at filtering through this mess, particularly when FB algorithms are sending only certain news articles that are selected for a person's "preferences." There is a lot of money being made by conspiracy sites.


For certain!
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Tortoise » Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:34 pm

Desert wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:56 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:03 pm
Trust in established Western institutions has been eroding in recent years, possibly beyond repair. The erosion has accelerated after Covid -- for good reason, IMO. That is why conspiracy theories are proliferating in populist circles.

Without trust, there can be no peace and prosperity. Trust is the foundation of Western civilization.
I totally agree with the first and last statements.
Do you think that our established Western institutions in recent years have continued to earn the trust that people had previously placed in them? If so, I think we probably inhabit different realities.
Desert wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:56 pm
2. The explosion of available media choices, many questionable, and some pure propaganda. Facebook is a primary pathway for nonsense to be spread around. Our society isn't very good at filtering through this mess, particularly when FB algorithms are sending only certain news articles that are selected for a person's "preferences." There is a lot of money being made by conspiracy sites.
Yes, and there's also a lot of money being made by established Western institutions. A lot of money flows in a lot of different places.

Totally agree that social media and alternative media have allowed many wacky ideas to spread. But I also think that not nearly as much of that would be happening in the absence of the erosion of trust in established Western institutions.

I think most people want to trust established institutions. Most people want to avoid going down conspiracy rabbit holes. But when their institutions lie to them, send mixed messages, or somehow reveal that their interests are not necessarily aligned with ours, people are forced start looking for facts and truth in other places.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Xan » Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:04 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:47 pm
Huh. Interesting. It's like my previous post wasn't even read.

Enjoy your Two Minutes Hate against the wackiest conspiracy theorists, guys. Criticizing them is easier than seriously discussing the views of the more moderate majority of populists.
I agreed with much of your earlier post, but I didn't realize that the idea you were trying to get across was not only that trust has become a problem, but that "we don't and shouldn't trust anything mainstream and it's the other side's fault". So, I agree with your words but not with what you were trying to say, if that makes any sense.

Can somebody describe what the leading "non-mainstream" theory of what's going on in Ukraine actually is?
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:30 pm

Coach red pill in Ukraine

I haven't been able to watch but plan to

https://youtu.be/WtN6C9xfzFo
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:58 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:47 pm
Huh. Interesting. It's like my previous post wasn't even read.

Enjoy your Two Minutes Hate against the wackiest conspiracy theorists, guys. Criticizing them is easier than seriously discussing the views of the more moderate majority of populists.
I liked your post but I agree with Xan — was it Xan? — who said the strange thing is the preemptive mistrust. That’s how I feel. With any significantly large event, as long as it’s coming from the mainstream media, some people are ready to discount it. I don’t know what to say to that. Is there a lot of crap in the papers? Sure. We have to scrutinize.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:57 pm

You know who didn’t buy the narrative that Putin was going to invade? Zelensky. I love the guy and everything. He’s a hero. But intelligence agencies warned him and for too long he insisted that all was well. That’s costing him and his country.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:26 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:57 pm

You know who didn’t buy the narrative that Putin was going to invade? Zelensky. I love the guy and everything. He’s a hero. But intelligence agencies warned him and for too long he insisted that all was well. That’s costing him and his country.


What should he have done, instead?

He had asked that sanctions be imposed prior to military actions starting.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by D1984 » Mon Feb 28, 2022 10:01 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:57 pm
You know who didn’t buy the narrative that Putin was going to invade? Zelensky. I love the guy and everything. He’s a hero. But intelligence agencies warned him and for too long he insisted that all was well. That’s costing him and his country.
Maybe....but it's just as possible that he was insisting all is well in public so as to project calm and confidence and not engender panic; meanwhile, he may've had, say, 24-48 hours advance intelligence from the US (strictly behind-the-scenes, of course, with all plausible deniability being maintained)
that Putin did indeed plan a full invasion. If so, he couldn't say that in public both because of the whole "project calm" and "don't stir panic" situation he was in, and also so as much as possible not do anything to implicate the US or let it be known we were feeding him intelligence but (if the above is even close to true) I presume he did all he could to prepare most of his military in the short time he was given.

What else could he have done? Zelensky asked for sanctions much earlier and the US and EU basically whiffed on those until Putin's forces actually invaded. Given a time machine to go back to, say, 2014 or 2017 or 2019 with the knowledge of how events would unfold in 2022 then yeah, sure, we would've sold/lend-leased Ukraine all the modern Western hardware we could (to include the PAC-3 iteration of the Patriot SAM....and for that matter Iron Dome if they wanted it) and trained their military on it as well....but this also assumes foreknowledge that Ukraine's fighting forces WOULDN'T crumble (which indeed they have done anything but crumble and I think almost everyone--including but not limited to Vladimir Putin--was stunned by this unexpected development) and cut and run like some of our other erstwhile allies we trained and equipped <<cough, Afghanistan and Iraq, cough >>; we certainly didn't want our "latest and greatest" military hardware falling into Russian hands.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:33 am

{Re Zelensky}
vnatale wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:26 pm
What should he have done, instead?
He had asked that sanctions be imposed prior to military actions starting.
I was just going to answer, but I think D1984 covered it well.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:35 am

D1984 wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 10:01 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:57 pm
You know who didn’t buy the narrative that Putin was going to invade? Zelensky. I love the guy and everything. He’s a hero. But intelligence agencies warned him and for too long he insisted that all was well. That’s costing him and his country.
Maybe....but it's just as possible that he was insisting all is well in public so as to project calm and confidence and not engender panic; meanwhile, he may've had, say, 24-48 hours advance intelligence from the US (strictly behind-the-scenes, of course, with all plausible deniability being maintained)
that Putin did indeed plan a full invasion.
….
Certainly possible. I would think they’d be in better shape than they are now if that had been the case, but who knows. Maybe they would have been in even worse shape and they did take advantage of the warnings. Definitely plausible.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:15 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:33 am

{Re Zelensky}
vnatale wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:26 pm

What should he have done, instead?
He had asked that sanctions be imposed prior to military actions starting.


I was just going to answer, but I think D1984 covered it well.


I did not see D1984 stating anything that Zelensky could have done differently. D1984 seemed to be stating what all others could have done differently.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:40 am

vnatale wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:15 am
(dualstow)
I was just going to answer, but I think D1984 covered it well.
I did not see D1984 stating anything that Zelensky could have done differently. D1984 seemed to be stating what all others could have done differently.
Not my problem, Vin. You can always reread.
EDIT: ok, he could have prepared more weapons. And prepared to receive them from other nations — I’m focused on logistics here, not necessarily the hardware that D1984 mentioned. All the things he’s asking for now, he coud have requested earlier. He could have done all kinds of things with the military — and as D1984 suggests, maybe he did — without alerting or alarming the general population.

Maybe we’ll find out next year.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:22 am

Just heard - Russia may have all but used up its munitions in Syria, which explains why they don’t have total air supremacy in Ukrainian skies.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:59 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:40 am

vnatale wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:15 am

(dualstow)
I was just going to answer, but I think D1984 covered it well.

I did not see D1984 stating anything that Zelensky could have done differently. D1984 seemed to be stating what all others could have done differently.

Not my problem, Vin. You can always reread.
EDIT: ok, he could have prepared more weapons. And prepared to receive them from other nations — I’m focused on logistics here, not necessarily the hardware that D1984 mentioned. All the things he’s asking for now, he coud have requested earlier. He could have done all kinds of things with the military — and as D1984 suggests, maybe he did — without alerting or alarming the general population.

Maybe we’ll find out next year.


I did reread.

Plus we did have an impeachment of a president due to his equipment request being delayed by that president for months back in 2020.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 01, 2022 1:59 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:59 am

Plus we did have an impeachment of a president due to his equipment request being delayed by that president for months back in 2020.
Not touching that :D
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:01 pm

Thanks for the thoughtful reply, Desert.

Back on the topic of Ukraine, I started watching the 2-hour Coach Red Pill video that whatchamacallit linked yesterday in this post. I've only gotten through the first ~30 minutes, but it's pretty interesting stuff. I hope to finish it tonight.

So far, his thesis seems to be that Putin didn't just randomly decide to invade Ukraine because he's evil and power-hungry. He claims that Putin was basically provoked in the same way that the US was provoked by the Cuban Missile Crisis. Just as US leadership freaked out when the Soviet Union moved nuclear missiles to Cuba -- right at the US's doorstep -- Russia's leadership freaked out when Ukraine tried to join NATO and likely bring some nuclear missiles right to Russia's doorstep. When nukes are so close, it violates the doctrine of mutually assured destruction since it means an aggressor nation could theoretically nuke its enemy before its enemy has a chance to react.

Another part of his thesis is that since NATO was formed, it has expanded beyond its original ostensibly defensive charter to become gradually more offensive, and that some promises made by NATO nations (e.g., not to expand beyond certain borders) have been broken, gradually breaking down trust between Russia and the West.

I admit that I know very little about the history of Russia and NATO, so I'm trying to learn as I go. Just thought I would share that the Coach Red Pill video is pretty interesting so far.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:32 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:01 pm
Red Pill


Another part of his thesis is that since NATO was formed, it has expanded beyond its original ostensibly defensive charter to become gradually more offensive, and that some promises made by NATO nations (e.g., not to expand beyond certain borders) have been broken, gradually breaking down trust between Russia and the West.

I admit that I know very little about the history of Russia and NATO, so I'm trying to learn as I go. Just thought I would share that the Coach Red Pill video is pretty interesting so far.
Now I feel like my posts aren’t being read. Page 1, first response to Maddy
dualstow wrote:
Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:44 am
The expansion of NATO, something the U.S. promised wouldn’t happen and then reneged on while Russia was weak- that’s the one thing that doesn’t come up too often in mainstream media.
But it does come up. Harry Shearer brings it up now and then. It’s in some mainstream publications. It’s not exactly alternative theory.
In fact, I would not say that mainstream experts are saying only that Putin is evil and power hungry. He believes Ukraine is historically part of Russia. It’s a bit off, a bit revisionist, but he’s not alone in thinking that. And he has always resented Yeltsin letting go of so much when the country was weak.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:04 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:32 pm
Now I feel like my posts aren’t being read. Page 1, first response to Maddy
[...]
Thanks for the reminder, dualstow. I sometimes don't remember everything that people have written on previous pages of a long thread.

My complaint about it seeming like my post wasn't read wasn't directed at you and Xan, or the forum members in general. It was directed mainly at Desert, who posted immediately after me with comments that seemed to completely ignore (or at least not acknowledge) what I had just said. He has since shared his thoughts about what I posted, which I appreciate.

Desert wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 3:25 pm
Here is an article containing an interview with Fiona Hill that I read last night:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... e-00012340
Thanks for the link, Desert. I read the article just now, and it's quite informative. But I would say that much of Fiona Hill's thesis boils down to "Putin is currently acting out of emotion rather than reason and logic," which I don't yet find convincing.

Regarding the various recent posts in this thread suggesting that the Russian military might be getting weak, encountering more resistance than they anticipated, failing to destroy Ukraine's air force to achieve air supremacy, etc., here is a much shorter video by Coach Red Pill (~19 minutes) in which he gives a pretty strong alternative explanation:

https://youtu.be/1vdiEABLFoo

TL;DR: Russia doesn't want to destroy Ukraine's cities or military; it wants to capture them and just replace Ukraine's current government with a puppet regime that's friendly to Russia's interests.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:54 pm

Desert wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:21 pm
When I saw Russian tanks stopping because citizens were standing in front of them, it became clear that they weren't using their full available force. Can you imagine standing in front of a German tank in WWII? That wouldn't end well. So yeah, it looks like they're trying to take over without using all their destructive capabilities. My fear is that they'll ramp things up more, now that this approach doesn't look like it's working too well.
As Coach Red Pill (I feel weird every time I type that silly name) said in that 19-minute video I linked in my previous post, his theory is that the reason the Russian tanks keep backing off like that when they encounter resistance is because they're encircling the cities and plan to wait them out until they (hopefully) surrender. Because they seem to want to keep Ukraine and its military as intact as possible. They just want to replace the leadership.

Desert wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:21 pm
Also, who is this [Coach] Red Pill guy? Is he a random internet guy like me, or does he have some special knowledge of Russia?
I don't know much about him yet, other than that he reportedly lives in Ukraine and has a family there. And he's reportedly stuck in a hotel in downtown Kiev, separated from his family, during the Russian invasion.

Regarding his credentials or special knowledge of Russia, I have no idea. At least initially, I've just been listening with an open mind to what he has to say. He seems to be fairly well versed in a lot of the relevant history leading up to this war (names, dates, treaties/agreements, motivations, etc.). I suppose he could be just pretending to know stuff that he doesn't, but if so, he's a remarkably good bullshitter. If anyone else here knows more about him and his background, please share.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:52 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:04 pm
Thanks for the reminder, dualstow. I sometimes don't remember everything that people have written on previous pages of a long thread.

No problem. Once the first page had passed, I didn’t expect anyone to remember.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Post by ppnewbie » Wed Mar 02, 2022 1:26 am

Great thread. Will echo some posts here. Russia would be nearly surrounded by missiles very close to Moscow and also I believe there access to open waters would be cut off if Ukraine joined NATO.

Which is why they are in Ukraine.

I Need to understand more about the Coup that overthrew the democratically elected Ukrainian government that I believe had good relations with Russia.

Also I’ve been hearing that China will go after Taiwan if the US makes any kind of military response. Which will keep the US from acting. We’ve lost our last two wars. And I believe the US spent a lot of money on Ukrainian defense (have not verified this) but the Russians just drove in on the highway.

This could be a moment where the dollar starts to fall if China Allies with a dedollarized Russia. China makes everything and Russia has a massive amount of natural resources - good combo. The US makes hedge fund managers.
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