Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Kbg
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by Kbg » Fri Aug 06, 2021 10:37 pm

I wasn’t very old when the series was actually in the theaters. True fact though about the kbg…there are very few movies/tv series I will watch more than once maybe twice. The Godfather trilogy is one, Seinfeld is another.

My favorite Godfather line of all: Leave the gun, take the cannoli. Epic and brilliant.

Low brow…it’s just hilarious

High brow…a poignant observation on the utter lack of concern for human life by the mafia

Since I didn’t major in cinematic art…

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ ... ok-873073/
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by Jack Jones » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:13 am

barrett wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 10:24 am
Jack Jones wrote:
Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:02 am
In Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged, the most productive members of society grow tired of carrying the yoke. The value of their productive effort is increasingly drained by cronies in Washington. They awaken to the fact that they are responsible for keeping this anti-life system going. They realize it is morally imperative to opt out.

One by one, they disappear from their posts as the leaders of enterprise and move to a hidden valley, Galt's Gulch, where a new kind of society is starting, a Libertarian utopia where gold is used as a medium of exchange.
Not sure I agree with this part of your OP. It seems to me that the most productive members of society have done extremely well in the US up to this point. Is that not correct?
As they should. They provide the most value. I don't believe we should penalize people to the degree of their productivity.
Xan wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 10:57 am
It seems to me that the biggest risk is that this fad will pass over, just like tulip bulbs and Beanie Babies. A hunk of shiny metal as opposed to 1110001? Not even a question as to which one is real.

"1110001? Worthless. 1110011? Now THERE'S a number! Have some actual goods and services!" The whole thing is crazy.
It's the same situation w/ paper money. This piece of paper is worth something, while this one isn't. This ability for wide-spread delusion is a human super-power.

When would you consider it not a fad? After another ten years?

I urge you to watch this video from yesterday:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?513996-1/ ... cture-bill

The actual issue is interesting, but not important to this discussion. The juicy questions start at 11:05. I want to point out how U.S. Senators are thinking about this:

Q. What do you think is the viability of digital assets?
A. I do believe it will catch on....there are so many innovators here in the United States. It will help the non-banked, e.g. El Salvador. So much energy and innovation in the space, almost like when the internet started. There is a lot to commend of it's very positive future in the United States...The fact that a mechanism has been invented to validate transactions w/out a trusted intermediary, through a distributed ledger mechanism, is going to change whole industries. I think it's too powerful, for even someone, if they were inclined to try stop it, it's going to be too powerful to stop, and it would be a very bad idea to try to stop it.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by Jack Jones » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:55 am

vincent_c wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:35 am
Have tulips been a good store of value after it’s speculative bubble bursted? I’m too young and not a gardener to know anything about tulips.
Tulips and beanie babies are not a good store of value because if their value rises, people produce more of them, driving the value down.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by glennds » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:06 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 10:52 am


100% you should be skeptical about it being a currency replacement. In fact, this is probably the only reason why anyone should sell BTC/not own BTC and it is because you think that the market at any given time has priced in some probability that BTC could be a currency replacement AND that it is a significant portion of the BTC price AND that the true value of BTC is not growing at a rate that by the time the market corrects its probability of BTC being a currency replacement, the true value of BTC is not already more than when you decided to sell/not to buy.
Vincent,
Do you think the market has priced in a probability that BTC will/can be a currency replacement?

If yes, what portion of its price would you attribute to this probability?

And - as someone who clearly has studied BTC more than I, what probability do you assign to BTC as a currency replacement?
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:45 am

SomeDude wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:28 pm
What can you use it for besides selling it to someone else? I've wondered this for a long time.
This is basically one definition of money.

Something like "The most saleable goods are the likeliest to become used as a medium of exchange and eventually emerge as the money." from Menger / Austrian school.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:49 am

Xan wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 10:57 am
It seems to me that the biggest risk is that this fad will pass over, just like tulip bulbs and Beanie Babies. A hunk of shiny metal as opposed to 1110001? Not even a question as to which one is real.

"1110001? Worthless. 1110011? Now THERE'S a number! Have some actual goods and services!" The whole thing is crazy.
Honestly this kind of 2014-era beanie baby thing is lazy thinking at this point.

How many giant bubbles did beanie babies or tulips have? Bitcoin, over 10 years: $30->$1, $260->$40, $1200->$200, $19k->$3k. Now at $50k.

Imagine thinking a novel digital money would increase in value in a straight linear pattern.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by seajay » Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:19 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:45 am
SomeDude wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:28 pm
What can you use it for besides selling it to someone else? I've wondered this for a long time.
This is basically one definition of money.

Something like "The most saleable goods are the likeliest to become used as a medium of exchange and eventually emerge as the money." from Menger / Austrian school.
Private currencies, in contrast to state/country official currency/money, will only be tolerated so far before being outlawed on the basis of being used for tax avoidance and other illegal activities, perhaps replaced with official versions of the same - such as being blockchain based and exchangeable/pegged at a 1:1 rate to standard currency. As such the mid/longer term value of each bit coin is $0.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:56 pm

seajay wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:19 pm
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:45 am
SomeDude wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:28 pm
What can you use it for besides selling it to someone else? I've wondered this for a long time.
This is basically one definition of money.

Something like "The most saleable goods are the likeliest to become used as a medium of exchange and eventually emerge as the money." from Menger / Austrian school.
Private currencies, in contrast to state/country official currency/money, will only be tolerated so far before being outlawed on the basis of being used for tax avoidance and other illegal activities, perhaps replaced with official versions of the same - such as being blockchain based and exchangeable/pegged at a 1:1 rate to standard currency. As such the mid/longer term value of each bit coin is $0.
Bitcoin is anti-central bank. And thus is the enemy of governments. They largely have not understood (or underestimated?) this so far.

But yes, it will continue to be banned and regulated throughout the world. But the banning of Bitcoin in some countries actually makes Bitcoin more appealing in others. I suspect banning it will work as well as the war on poverty, terror, drugs.

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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by seajay » Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:12 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:56 pm
Bitcoin is anti-central bank. And thus is the enemy of governments. They largely have not understood (or underestimated?) this so far.

But yes, it will continue to be banned and regulated throughout the world. But the banning of Bitcoin in some countries actually makes Bitcoin more appealing in others. I suspect banning it will work as well as the war on poverty, terror, drugs.
It's based on code, and all code contains flaws. When those flaws can be exploited that opens up a security weakness, with a security weakness total devastation can follow.
Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy last week, saying hackers had stolen the equivalent of $460 million from its online coffers.
Concerted (multi) state level attacks could kill it off a lot easier than it is to stem/end the flow of physical items such as drugs. Being open source likely some flaws/backdoors have already been added by states.

Fine for those that might be inclined to deposit cash into a bank where potentially on looking to withdraw they say opps sorry it was all stolen and you have no cover. Most would rather deposit with some degree of protections and protections require regulation/controls.

The present popularity is a consequence of speculation, <1% of corporate assets type allocations that could increase 10-fold, might fail. A penny stock 'low correlation' type bet. Price/value discovery that mid to longer term will disappoint but see considerable volatility along the way.

There are plenty of other penny stocks that you could throw money at rather than a digital currency/banking system that has already had numerous $100M+ thefts in its infancy years and that could be wiped out due to the relative apparent ease of such thefts being expanded massively if/when more capital value is contained within that system and states deem it desirable to destroy such competition.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by bitcoininthevp » Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:11 am

seajay wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:12 pm
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:56 pm
Bitcoin is anti-central bank. And thus is the enemy of governments. They largely have not understood (or underestimated?) this so far.

But yes, it will continue to be banned and regulated throughout the world. But the banning of Bitcoin in some countries actually makes Bitcoin more appealing in others. I suspect banning it will work as well as the war on poverty, terror, drugs.
It's based on code, and all code contains flaws. When those flaws can be exploited that opens up a security weakness, with a security weakness total devastation can follow.
Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy last week, saying hackers had stolen the equivalent of $460 million from its online coffers.
Concerted (multi) state level attacks could kill it off a lot easier than it is to stem/end the flow of physical items such as drugs. Being open source likely some flaws/backdoors have already been added by states.

Fine for those that might be inclined to deposit cash into a bank where potentially on looking to withdraw they say opps sorry it was all stolen and you have no cover. Most would rather deposit with some degree of protections and protections require regulation/controls.

The present popularity is a consequence of speculation, <1% of corporate assets type allocations that could increase 10-fold, might fail. A penny stock 'low correlation' type bet. Price/value discovery that mid to longer term will disappoint but see considerable volatility along the way.

There are plenty of other penny stocks that you could throw money at rather than a digital currency/banking system that has already had numerous $100M+ thefts in its infancy years and that could be wiped out due to the relative apparent ease of such thefts being expanded massively if/when more capital value is contained within that system and states deem it desirable to destroy such competition.
I agree that some classes of bug in Bitcoin's code could be devastating. There is essentially a billion dollar bug bounty on Bitcoin since whoever finds such a bug could make a lot of money.

But there is a difference between Bitcoin being hacked and people using Bitcoin being hacked. The analogy would be gold being hacked (via some alchemy or whatever) compared to gold being stolen from your safe in your house. You seem to cite examples of people holding being hacked as some example that bitcoin is being hacked. The usability and security around holding bitcoin is being innovated on and has no impact on the core Bitcoin protocol itself.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by bitcoininthevp » Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:21 am

Jack Jones wrote:
Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:02 am
In Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged, the most productive members of society grow tired of carrying the yoke. The value of their productive effort is increasingly drained by cronies in Washington. They awaken to the fact that they are responsible for keeping this anti-life system going. They realize it is morally imperative to opt out.

One by one, they disappear from their posts as the leaders of enterprise and move to a hidden valley, Galt's Gulch, where a new kind of society is starting, a Libertarian utopia where gold is used as a medium of exchange.

Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch of the digital age. Although there have been some meatspace efforts to get like-minded individuals in one area of the country like the Free State Project, maybe it's not necessary? One at a time, as each of us awakens to the fact that the financial system does not serve us, we can opt out by moving our wealth outside that system, to Satoshi's Gulch. Unlike Galt's Gulch, we can even opt out gradually, as we become more sure of ourselves.

Once your wealth is in Satoshi's Gulch, you are no longer tied down to your place of residence. If things go south in your country, you can bring your wealth to another country, w/out fear of confiscation like with gold.
I would add another book reference here:
The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age
https://www.amazon.com/The-Sovereign-In ... -1&x=0&y=0
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by bitcoininthevp » Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:25 am

Xan wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:06 am
I just don't see how "anonymity" and "technology that immutably and forever keeps a complete record of all transactions ever" go together at all.
Pseudonymous is a more accurate term. There are identifiers on the blockchain (addresses) but they dont "need" to be tied to real world identities, although often are through exchanges, etc.

The tracking of coin movements is called chainalysis. There are folks working on privacy to counter such measures and to obfuscate the ability to trace the coins as they are transacted.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by Jack Jones » Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:05 am

seajay wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:12 pm
The present popularity is a consequence of speculation, <1% of corporate assets type allocations that could increase 10-fold, might fail. A penny stock 'low correlation' type bet. Price/value discovery that mid to longer term will disappoint but see considerable volatility along the way.

There are plenty of other penny stocks that you could throw money at rather than a digital currency/banking system that has already had numerous $100M+ thefts in its infancy years and that could be wiped out due to the relative apparent ease of such thefts being expanded massively if/when more capital value is contained within that system and states deem it desirable to destroy such competition.
After another 10 years, or when they are going for $1M/BTC, would your opinion change? How much time and acceptance do you need to see?

In my own case, I've realized that it's okay that I passed on accumulating Bitcoin when it was $10, because at that time the prospects were much less certain. I considered buying $1000 worth at the time, but instead put the money into my IRA as part of my PP. It was the wise decision at the time.

But the times, they are a changin'. Perhaps the prospects are still too uncertain, but at least make sure you're not too attached to your priors.
Last edited by Jack Jones on Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by Jack Jones » Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:13 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:21 am
I would add another book reference here:
The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age
https://www.amazon.com/The-Sovereign-In ... -1&x=0&y=0
Thanks I'll pick it up. And glad you dropped by again. I wanted to thank you for speaking your truth here in the past. You've changed my trajectory.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:39 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:21 am
I would add another book reference here:
The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age
https://www.amazon.com/The-Sovereign-In ... -1&x=0&y=0
I read this back in Dec 2017, they were definitely on to the crypto thing back then, and general growing unrest. Their ideas were:

1. Citizenship is obsolete. Become a customer of a government.
2. Of all the nationalities on the globe, US citizenship converys the greatest liabilities and places the most hindrances in the way. Therefore, obtain passports as necessary to step towards privatizing or denationalizing yourself.
3. Based upon the history of other dominant systems facing collapse, those who opt for the ultimum refugium and get out early will be better off in the end. The dangers of a nationalist reaction to the crisis of the nation-state make it important not to underestimate the scope for tyranny and mischief.
4. Whatever your current residence or nationality, to optimize your wealth you should primarily reside in a country other than that from which you hold your first passport, while keeping the bulk of your money in yet a third jurisdiction, preferably a tax haven.
5. You should travel widely to select alternative residences in attractive locales where you will have right of entry in an emergency.
6. Violence will become more random and localized; organized crime will grow in scope.It will therefore be more important to locate in secure physical spaces than in the twentieth century. Walling out troublemakers is an effective as well as traditional way of minimizing criminal violence in times of weak central authority.
7. If you are financially successful, you should probably hire your own retainers to guarantee your protection. Police functions will increasingly be filled by private guards linked to merchant and community associations.
8. Areas of opportunity and security will shift. Economies that have been rich during the Industrial Era may well be subject to deflation of living standards and social unrest as governments prove incapable of guaranteeing prosperity and entitlement programs collapse.
9. The forty-eight least-developed countries will have widely divergent fates in the Information Age.
10. Jurisdictions of choice in which to enjoy high living standards with economic opportunity include reform areas in the Southern hemisphere, such as New Zealand, Chile, and Argentina, which boast adequate to superior infrastructure and many beautiful landscapes and are unlikely to be targets of terrorists.
11. The fastest-growing and most important new economy of the next century will not be China, but the cybereconomy.
12. Encryption will be an important feature of commerce on the Web and the realization of individual autonomy. Just as the Church attempted to ban printing at the twilight of the Middle Ages, so the US and other aggressive governments bent on control will seek to bar effective encryption.
13. Where possible, all business should be domiciled offshore, in a tax haven. This is particularly important for websites and internet addresses, where there is virtuallly no advantage in locating in an on-shore, high-tax jurisdiction.
14. Corporations in the Information Age will increasingly become virtual corporations- bundles of contracting relations without any material reality, and perhaps without physical assets.
15. Incomes will become more unequal within jurisdictions, but more equal between them. Countries with a tradition of a very unequal distribution of incomes may be relatively more stable under these conditions than those where strong expectations of income equality have developed during the Industrial Age.
16. As a relative performance becomes more important than absolute output in determining compensation, an ever more important occupation will be that of the agent.
17. "Jobs" will increasingly become tasks or piece work rather than positions within an organization.
18. Many members of regulated professions will be displaced by digital servants.
19. Control over resources will shift away from the state to persons of superior skills and intelligence, as more wealth will be created by adding knowledge to products.
20. As the nation state system breaks down, risk-averse persons who formerly would have sought employment with government may find an alternative in affiliating as retainers to the very rich.
21. You should expect a slowdown or decline in per capita consumption in countries such as the US, which have been the leading consumers of the world's products in the late stages of industrialism.
22. Debt deflation may accompany the transition to the new millenium.
23. The death of politics will mean the end of central bank regulation and manipulation of money. Cybermoney will become the new money of the Information Age, replacing the paper money of Industrialism. This means not only a change in the fortunes of banknote printers, it implies the death of inflation as an effective means by which nation-states can commandeer resources. Real interest rates will tend to rise.
24. Business and investment strategies must be adjusted to the unfamiliar realities of deflation- that is, debt should be avoided; savings and cost reductions should be pursued with greater urgency; long-term contracts and compensation packages should probably be drawn with flexible nominal terms.
25. Taxing capacity in the leading nation-states will fall away by 50-70%, while it will prove far more difficult to reduce spending in an orderly way. The result to be expected is a continuation of deficits that plague most OECD countries, accompanied by high real-interest rates.
26. Technical innovations that displace employment should probably be introduced in jurisdictions that have no tradition of producing whatever product or service is in question.
27. Cognitive skills will be rewardded as never before. It will be more important to think clearly, as ideas will become a form of wealth.
28. Thinking about the end of the current system is taboo. To understand the great transformation to the Information Age, you must transcend conventional thinking and conventional information sources.
29. Because incomes for the very rich will rise faster than for the others in advanced economies, an area of growing demand will be services and products that cater to the needs of the very rich.
30. The growing danger of crime, particularly embezzlement and undetectable theft, will make morality and honor among associates more crucial and highly valued than it was during the Industrial era.

And lastly:
The most thorough survey ever undertaken of the competence of American adults, the "Adult Literacy in America" study, shows that finding a literate audience for any political argument is by no means easy. A large fraction, perhaps a majority of Americans over the age of fifteen, lack basic skills essential to evaluating ideas and formulating judgments. According to the US Education Department, 90 million Americans cannot write a letter, fathom a bus schedule, or even do addition and subtraction on a calculator... Thirty million were judged so incompetent that they could not even respond to questions.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:48 pm

Jack Jones wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:13 am
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:21 am
I would add another book reference here:
The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age
https://www.amazon.com/The-Sovereign-In ... -1&x=0&y=0
Thanks I'll pick it up. And glad you dropped by again. I wanted to thank you for speaking your truth here in the past. You've changed my trajectory.
That’s really great to hear. Thank you.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by seajay » Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:58 pm

Jack Jones wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:05 am
After another 10 years, or when they are going for $1M/BTC, would your opinion change? How much time and acceptance do you need to see?
If/when the value rises, so also does the intent/desire to steal high value. IMO the thieves will always remain one step ahead at finding exploits (as they do with Browsers) and present day $600M type thefts/hacks out of the bit coin algorithm would simply scale. At the $21Tn value you suggest the temptations would have millions with high focus intent to hack/steal via all sorts of means where even if 1 in a million were successful the trust/faith would be devastated down to levels where $30Tn of stock market cap might only risk 1% on bit coin, $300Bn across 21 million bitcoins, so $150 or so per bit coin value perhaps, -45% annualized 10 year potential from recent price levels.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by Jack Jones » Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:01 am

seajay wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:58 pm
If/when the value rises, so also does the intent/desire to steal high value. IMO the thieves will always remain one step ahead at finding exploits (as they do with Browsers) and present day $600M type thefts/hacks out of the bit coin algorithm would simply scale. At the $21Tn value you suggest the temptations would have millions with high focus intent to hack/steal via all sorts of means where even if 1 in a million were successful the trust/faith would be devastated down to levels where $30Tn of stock market cap might only risk 1% on bit coin, $300Bn across 21 million bitcoins, so $150 or so per bit coin value perhaps, -45% annualized 10 year potential from recent price levels.
Again, the scenarios you are presenting are equivalent in the gold world to vault robberies and home invasions. Yes, Bitcoin and gold can be stolen in that way (although Bitcoin can be more secure than gold in this scenario, (e.g. w/ multi-sig)). However, there are no hacks on the "bit coin algorithm" these days.

There was an early (2010, $0.10/BTC) bug that was exploited, but the network was quickly patched and consensus formed around a version of the blockchain where the hacker did not add 184 billion BTC to the chain. That's what happens when you break the rules: no one wants to play with you.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by bitcoininthevp » Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:50 am

seajay wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:58 pm
present day $600M type thefts/hacks out of the bit coin algorithm would simply scale
This is completely false.

Bitcoin (or what you seem to think of as "bit coin") has not been hacked for loss of funds. Individuals holding bitcoins in insecure ways have lost their coins.

If I leave my gold coins on the front patio and they are taken, does that say more about gold or my security practices.
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by seajay » Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:44 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:50 am
seajay wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:58 pm
present day $600M type thefts/hacks out of the bit coin algorithm would simply scale
This is completely false.

Bitcoin (or what you seem to think of as "bit coin") has not been hacked for loss of funds. Individuals holding bitcoins in insecure ways have lost their coins.

If I leave my gold coins on the front patio and they are taken, does that say more about gold or my security practices.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 01986.html

https://nypost.com/2021/06/24/brothers- ... ged-heist/

https://decrypt.co/49954/bitcoin-theft- ... 021-report
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Re: Bitcoin is Galt's Gulch

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:22 pm

Sigh.
This is about Poly Network, not "bit coin".
This is people giving their bitcoins to someone who then stole them.
This is an article saying that because Bitcoins price is increasing its more likely to be stolen.

None of these are even close to someone "hacking bit coin algorithm", seajay.

If I leave my gold coins on the front patio and they are taken, does that say more about gold or my security practices.
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