The Afghan Papers

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vnatale
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by vnatale » Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:57 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:38 pm

How long do the forumites give the Afghan "government?" I figured they would last half a year or so after we pulled out, but now I could see the Taliban back in control sooner.


You might be too optimistic.

They already control most of the country by geography.

Vinny

As U.S. Troops Withdraw, A Map Shows The Taliban Control Much Of Afghanistan

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/12/10151850 ... fghanistan

A map compiled by a news site called The Long War Journal has an update on America's longest war. As U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the color-coded map shows the Taliban controlling much of that country, including almost all the borders. The U.S.-backed government mainly controls big cities and a large central area near Kabul, though not even all of that.



Taliban doubles number of controlled Afghan districts since May 1
BY BILL ROGGIO | June 29, 2021 | admin@longwarjournal.org | @billroggio

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives ... -may-1.php
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by Kbg » Wed Jul 14, 2021 6:56 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:51 am
Kbg wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:27 am

Personally I think going to Afghanistan in the first place was the right call.
How so? What was the expected end game?
Kbg wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:27 am

However, we probably should have left in say the 2003-4 time frame.
And the what had changed by 2003? Was that end game accomplished? If not, why leave then?
Unfortunately you'll be getting the short version/rebuttal

Really the WT Towers get dropped, Pentagon gets a big hole in it and our response should've been a collective "Oh well sure sucked to be in those three buildings and on those airplanes, sure glad it wasn't me?"

The expected end game at the time was take out the heart of Al-Qaeda and topple the supporting government who hosted or tacitly allowed this to go on in their country. The first was for the perpetrators and the second was a serious and highly visible warning shot to several countries. Both of those were accomplished in Afghanistan late 2002 and by the end of 2003 things were "relatively" stable. In my view, we screwed up the end game when we got involved in a civil war that has been going on since the 60s off and on with various and sundry external countries supporting the ethno-religious side of their choice.

Side note: I was rather flabbergasted when we went into Iraq, didn't get it at all and didn't think it was a good idea at the time. However, I think an unexpected side benefit is a lot of the Jihadi steam was vented there (and killed in Iraq or nearby) by the US, Russians, Turks, Syrians and Iranians. It used to be "cool" to be a Jihadi and all the cool muslim kids wanted to go be one. Going to that part of the world for Jihad is now known as a good place to die young and be abused. The cool factor is largely gone. Though to be sure that stuff is still around and will likely be for a very long time.

So this arm chair quarterback stuff is easy peasy.

It's 9/12/2001, what's in MangoMan's wallet? (e.g your strategy, your take on things, your response to those events...waiving my magic PP Board Wand and you are now Bush 2, whatcha gonna do?)
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by Kbg » Thu Jul 15, 2021 8:31 am

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:00 pm
KBG, you clearly know more about this topic than I do.

Was Al Qaeda primarily in Afghanistan in 2001? I didn't think that was the case. I know Bin Laden was supposedly hiding there. Not saying we should have done nothing, but a full scale war (against whom?) for 20 years was not the answer.
If you google OBL's full name a pretty good summary article comes up. Short answer, yes and certainly the senior leadership was.

If you want some details this is a pretty good read. I was not in that part of the world at the time so I have no first hand experience, but it seems consistent with those I know who were.

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CPR ... T53709.htm
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by glennds » Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:40 pm

Kbg wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 6:56 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:51 am
Kbg wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:27 am

Personally I think going to Afghanistan in the first place was the right call.
How so? What was the expected end game?
Kbg wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:27 am

However, we probably should have left in say the 2003-4 time frame.
And the what had changed by 2003? Was that end game accomplished? If not, why leave then?
Unfortunately you'll be getting the short version/rebuttal

Really the WT Towers get dropped, Pentagon gets a big hole in it and our response should've been a collective "Oh well sure sucked to be in those three buildings and on those airplanes, sure glad it wasn't me?"

The expected end game at the time was take out the heart of Al-Qaeda and topple the supporting government who hosted or tacitly allowed this to go on in their country. The first was for the perpetrators and the second was a serious and highly visible warning shot to several countries. Both of those were accomplished in Afghanistan late 2002 and by the end of 2003 things were "relatively" stable. In my view, we screwed up the end game when we got involved in a civil war that has been going on since the 60s off and on with various and sundry external countries supporting the ethno-religious side of their choice.

Side note: I was rather flabbergasted when we went into Iraq, didn't get it at all and didn't think it was a good idea at the time. However, I think an unexpected side benefit is a lot of the Jihadi steam was vented there (and killed in Iraq or nearby) by the US, Russians, Turks, Syrians and Iranians. It used to be "cool" to be a Jihadi and all the cool muslim kids wanted to go be one. Going to that part of the world for Jihad is now known as a good place to die young and be abused. The cool factor is largely gone. Though to be sure that stuff is still around and will likely be for a very long time.

So this arm chair quarterback stuff is easy peasy.

It's 9/12/2001, what's in MangoMan's wallet? (e.g your strategy, your take on things, your response to those events...waiving my magic PP Board Wand and you are now Bush 2, whatcha gonna do?)
Kbg,
You probably know the answer to this - specifically regarding the justification for US repercussions against those countries that harbored or aided Jihadists..... why did Pakistan get a pass (at least in comparison to Afghanistan and Iraq)?
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by Kbg » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:37 am

glennds wrote:
Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:40 pm
Kbg,
You probably know the answer to this - specifically regarding the justification for US repercussions against those countries that harbored or aided Jihadists..... why did Pakistan get a pass (at least in comparison to Afghanistan and Iraq)?
They got a partial hall pass because to get to Afghanistan a big chunk of the logistics had to go through its territory. Once we were there in size, airlift couldn't provide everything. So, in my view we kinda turned a blind eye on several things out of necessity/convenience.

If you are familiar with Vietnam war dynamics it was sorta similar in that Vietnam era Air Force/Navy fliers could watch Chinese and Russian ships unloading arms that were going to go south for the ground war or be used against them on their next bombing run...but that's all they could do...watch.

I'm not a fan of any wars as a generalized statement, but sometimes (9/11 met the bill in my view) they are justified.

However, I really don't understand why you get into a war (or more accurately, stay in a war) with these types of dynamics.

If I were king of the universe and had a time machine I'd do the following.

Do what we did to drive AQ and the TB out of power and then leave

Make it known to everyone on the planet...do what the TB did and we will take down your government with force as well if an attack makes it to American soil (no being the world's anti-terrorist cops.)

Keep hunting OBL (and senior leaders at the time) until dead or the end of time

Don't invade Iraq
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by pp4me » Mon Aug 09, 2021 5:25 pm

Kbg wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:37 am
If you are familiar with Vietnam war dynamics it was sorta similar in that Vietnam era Air Force/Navy fliers could watch Chinese and Russian ships unloading arms that were going to go south for the ground war or be used against them on their next bombing run...but that's all they could do...watch.
In my brief time sailing off the coast on the intelligence ship U.S.S. Oxford, it was always a big deal seeing a Russian ship. The Captain and all the officers would come to the bridge all taking pictures with their cameras.

Don't remember seeing anything like that when I went in-country on the rivers but I'll take your word for it.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by Kbg » Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:46 pm

pp4me wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 5:25 pm
Kbg wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:37 am
If you are familiar with Vietnam war dynamics it was sorta similar in that Vietnam era Air Force/Navy fliers could watch Chinese and Russian ships unloading arms that were going to go south for the ground war or be used against them on their next bombing run...but that's all they could do...watch.
In my brief time sailing off the coast on the intelligence ship U.S.S. Oxford, it was always a big deal seeing a Russian ship. The Captain and all the officers would come to the bridge all taking pictures with their cameras.

Don't remember seeing anything like that when I went in-country on the rivers but I'll take your word for it.
If your USN riverine boat was going up and down the Red River from Haiphong to Hanoi, I'm impressed. A big hat tip to you. However, no need to take my word for it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/us/j ... ritic.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pocket_Money

https://www.history.navy.mil/research/l ... etnam.html

Now if you were getting shot at on the Mekong River, odds are the bullets made their first Vietnamese river debut on the Red.

And, thanks for your service. I've often felt the good treatment most later date military personnel received was a direct result of most Americans realizing what happened upon returning home to Vietnam vets was just not right.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by glennds » Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:22 pm

Quite a turn of events in Afghanistan. At this point 2/3 of the country is in Taliban control with the expectation that the remainder is weeks, possibly only days away.
The fact that the Taliban would take over is not the surprise, but the speed and efficiency with which they have done so is. At this point 3 of the 4 major cities in the country have fallen with only Kabul remaining. The US has sent 3,000 troops on an emergency basis, for the purpose of evacuating the embassy and Americans in harm's way. Looks like the situation is changing daily, maybe hourly.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/13 ... an-taliban

Here's the part that I find troubling. Like many Americans, I have a bias that the Taliban are a bunch of terrorist neanderthal savages. Crazy, brutal, but not particularly competent. However from what I am reading, their military operation over the past few days has been both stunning and masterful. First they closed off the north, then they moved to take control of all borders working from the outside in so that now Kabul, the last remaining stronghold, is basically surrounded by a Taliban moat.

So if they are that organized and capable a fighting force, then what does it mean for the future in the region? Or maybe it's not that the Taliban are particularly great, just that the Afghan government forces are just that bad.

It's tempting to compare to Vietnam, but the North Vietnamese revealed that they had no imperialist designs on the region. Who knows where the Taliban will go, even if only a terrorist breeding ground. I don't know and not making a prediction, but I can't see where the direction things are heading is good.
Love to hear your perspective Kbg.
Last edited by glennds on Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by vnatale » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:29 pm

Anyone else here share this belief?

Vinny

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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by pp4me » Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:23 pm

I feel most sorry for all the women in Kabul who are going to have to put the burqa's back on. We should have armed them all with handguns before we left.

Who could have possibly predicted that this would end so badly and we'd find out they were lying to us the whole time?
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:48 pm

glennds wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:22 pm
Quite a turn of events in Afghanistan. At this point 2/3 of the country is in Taliban control with the expectation that the remainder is weeks, possibly only days away.
The fact that the Taliban would take over is not the surprise, but the speed and efficiency with which they have done so is. At this point 3 of the 4 major cities in the country have fallen with only Kabul remaining. The US has sent 3,000 troops on an emergency basis, for the purpose of evacuating the embassy and Americans in harm's way. Looks like the situation is changing daily, maybe hourly.
We've been closing FOBs in Afghanistan for a decade now, that's a pretty big head start. The Taliban just moved into the vacuum when we left (Afghanistan essentially has no government presence outside of Kabul). So it's not too surprising if they complete the takeover a few months early.
Here's the part that I find troubling. Like many Americans, I have a bias that the Taliban are a bunch of terrorist neanderthal savages. Crazy, brutal, but not particularly competent. However from what I am reading, their military operation over the past few days has been both stunning and masterful. First they closed off the north, then they moved to take control of all borders working from the outside in so that now Kabul, the last remaining stronghold, is basically surrounded by a Taliban moat.
They just had to be better than the Afghan Army, which is pathetic.

Also, I don't really think of the Taliban as terrorists. For instance, they don't go abroad and kidnap/bomb/hijack or any of the other things that we think of when we think of terrorism. They do a lot of sick shit in Afghanistan, for sure, but that's because they're Islamists*, and they're fighting for control of their homeland.
So if they are that organized and capable a fighting force, then what does it mean for the future in the region? Or maybe it's not that the Taliban are particularly great, just that the Afghan government forces are just that bad.
It doesn't affect the future of the region. You think the Taliban poses a military threat to any of its neighbors? They'll probably go back to being an insular backwater that nobody cares about. The Chinese or Turks or whoever will pay off whoever controls the territories they want to mine, and other than that there's no reason to go there.

* Like the Saudis, who in addition to doing a lot of sick shit themselves, also export and support worldwide terrorism.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by pp4me » Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:54 pm

vnatale wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:29 pm
Anyone else here share this belief?

Vinny

Capture.JPG
The emerging narrative I've been hearing is that it's Trump's fault for removing troops too early.

You can blame them all as far as I'm concerned. Just don't forget that Obama/Biden were in charge for 8 1/2 years of the mess.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by Kbg » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:04 am

Kriegs post + 1
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by vnatale » Sun Aug 15, 2021 8:20 am

"This is academic at this point. Taliban control at least 30 provinces and capitals."

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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by pp4me » Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:14 pm

Reflections of an Afghan veteran, well worth reading.....

https://laurajedeed.medium.com/afghanis ... 3f099b00e5
This is what I remember:

I remember Afghanistan as a dusty beige nightmare of a place full of proud, brave people who did not fucking want us there. We called them Hajjis and worse and they were better than we were, braver and stronger and smarter.
And so I sit here, reading these sad fucking articles and these horrified social media posts about the suffering in Afghanistan and the horror of the encroaching Taliban and how awful it is that this is happening but I can’t stop feeling this grim happiness, like, finally, you fuckers, finally you have to face the thing Afghanistan has always been. You can’t keep lying to yourself about what you sent us into.

No more blown up soldiers. No more Bollywood videos on phones whose owners are getting shipped god knows where. No more hypocrisy.
No more pretending it meant anything. It didn’t.

It didn’t mean a goddamn thing.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by glennds » Sun Aug 15, 2021 1:42 pm

pp4me wrote:
Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:14 pm
Reflections of an Afghan veteran, well worth reading.....

https://laurajedeed.medium.com/afghanis ... 3f099b00e5

Thx for sharing. Interesting perspective. The no-win alternatives implicit in the opium field story is emblematic.

I learned from an Afghan person I knew in college how deep the cultural pride is in their repeated resistance to foreign invaders. This is the history of the mujahideen and the tribal Pashtun clans for centuries. They beat back the British and made them retreat. They beat back the USSR and sent them packing. And now the Taliban narrative will be that they defeated the US and we left too. And it will be seen as a great day for jihadism.

We'll write our own narrative, most likely drawing the distinction between withdrawal and defeat. That the former was always the plan, and the latter has never happened and never will.
Kriegs and Kbg point out that the Taliban are an insular backwater so who cares? Maybe they're right. I really wouldn't know. I guess time will tell.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by pp4me » Sun Aug 15, 2021 5:53 pm

I wonder what the lessons of Afghanistan will turn out to be? The following is what I think the lessons of Vietnam were, besides "Never get involved in a land war in Southeast Asia" as Vizzini in Princess Bride famously advised. The most obvious one, of course, is that Afghanistan REALLY is the graveyard of empires.

But here were the major lessons of Vietnam as I see them having been implemented in Afghanistan, even though they didn't succeed.....

1.) Avoid conscription unless it becomes absolutely necessary.
2.) Minimize the death count. The American people would not stand for it anymore after 58k were killed in 12 years. I think the number in Afghanistan was around 2500 in 20 years.
3.) Control the news. Vietnam was the top news story every single day for a long time including the number killed on the CBS Evening news with Walter Cronkite every single day. The military seems to have done a really good job of this in Afghanistan and the media was very compliant. Where were all the news stories telling us what a FUBAR this was?
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by vnatale » Sun Aug 15, 2021 7:17 pm

pp4me wrote:
Sun Aug 15, 2021 5:53 pm

I wonder what the lessons of Afghanistan will turn out to be? The following is what I think the lessons of Vietnam were, besides "Never get involved in a land war in Southeast Asia" as Vizzini in Princess Bride famously advised. The most obvious one, of course, is that Afghanistan REALLY is the graveyard of empires.

But here were the major lessons of Vietnam as I see them having been implemented in Afghanistan, even though they didn't succeed.....

1.) Avoid conscription unless it becomes absolutely necessary.
2.) Minimize the death count. The American people would not stand for it anymore after 58k were killed in 12 years. I think the number in Afghanistan was around 2500 in 20 years.
3.) Control the news. Vietnam was the top news story every single day for a long time including the number killed on the CBS Evening news with Walter Cronkite every single day. The military seems to have done a really good job of this in Afghanistan and the media was very compliant. Where were all the news stories telling us what a FUBAR this was?


I am remembering correctly that you were in the Vietnam War?

I know that at least two others here were also in military.

I assume you volunteered while those two enlisted.

In a another topic we started a discussion about there being two kinds of people - those who want to control others and those who want to be left alone.

I cannot think of any other occupation in this country in which you are NOT left alone and which you have strict controls exerted over you.

Does that mean that those who volunteer for the military are in the camp of those who want to control others?

I'm presently reading a book on the AK-47. One of the sections I just read was regarding the whole M-16 debacle during the Vietnam war.

It underscored why I never wanted to be in the military. I never want to be in a situation that I cannot get out of when it's not right that I be in that situation.

When you are in the military you are to obey all orders unless those orders go against some military code. You are placing your trust in decision makes who prime motivation is not doing the right thing for those serving in the military. I'm not sure the welfare of those serving in the military ranks but for all the decision makers along the way - military & political - it certainly seems to rank behind 1) politics 2) careerism 3) $$$$ 4) personal needs of the decision makers, e.g., not wanting to admit defeat or being wrong. I'm sure there are probably some others that I am missing?
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by Kbg » Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:05 am

pp4me wrote:
Sun Aug 15, 2021 5:53 pm
1.) Avoid conscription unless it becomes absolutely necessary.
After almost three decades in the biz, I really think we should bring back conscription with a big random lottery that has no exemptions. If you don't want to go into the military then double the amount of time doing something else. An all volunteer force I think does make for a better military, but I also think it makes it entirely too easy to be used without political repercussions.

After it was all done I have to admit I was quite shocked at how many times I had been in some type of conflict.

Gulf War I was a maybe good use of force

9/11 completely justified in my view

All the rest, not so much
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by Mark Leavy » Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:26 am

Kbg wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:05 am
After almost three decades in the biz, I really think we should bring back conscription with a big random lottery that has no exemptions. If you don't want to go into the military then double the amount of time doing something else. An all volunteer force I think does make for a better military, but I also think it makes it entirely too easy to be used without political repercussions.
I really don't think that reintroducing slavery will magically make politicians less stupid and corrupt.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by Kbg » Mon Aug 16, 2021 10:43 am

Mark Leavy wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:26 am
Kbg wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:05 am
After almost three decades in the biz, I really think we should bring back conscription with a big random lottery that has no exemptions. If you don't want to go into the military then double the amount of time doing something else. An all volunteer force I think does make for a better military, but I also think it makes it entirely too easy to be used without political repercussions.
I really don't think that reintroducing slavery will magically make politicians less stupid and corrupt.
No, but it does get people more people involved who are checked out if a son or daughter is involved.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by pp4me » Mon Aug 16, 2021 2:58 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sun Aug 15, 2021 7:17 pm
I am remembering correctly that you were in the Vietnam War?

I know that at least two others here were also in military.

I assume you volunteered while those two enlisted.
Yes, you remember correctly but I don't know what the difference is between volunteering and enlisting (or did you mean to say "drafted" instead of volunteering).

I "volunteered" in the same sense that others like GWB volunteered for the National Guard. I joined the Navy because I expected to be drafted after I dropped out of college and lost my deferment. Only years later did I find out my number would have never come up. Most of us who joined the Navy or Air Force did so to avoid being drafted and ending up in the Army where the odds of ending up as a grunt fighting in the jungle were much higher.

Never even thought about going to Vietnam at the time. Actually, I didn't even know I was going there until the day before I arrived in DaNang which, needless to say, was quite a shock. According to my orders I was supposed to be going to a Technical Research Ship (AGTR-1) which sounded really interesting at the time. I spent a few months on that ship before it got decommissioned due to the U.S.S. Pueblo incident in N. Korea and then got transferred in-country where I spent the rest of the time in the mobile wolverine force, leaving just before the Cambodian invasion.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by vnatale » Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:00 pm

Kbg wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 10:43 am

Mark Leavy wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:26 am

Kbg wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:05 am

After almost three decades in the biz, I really think we should bring back conscription with a big random lottery that has no exemptions. If you don't want to go into the military then double the amount of time doing something else. An all volunteer force I think does make for a better military, but I also think it makes it entirely too easy to be used without political repercussions.


I really don't think that reintroducing slavery will magically make politicians less stupid and corrupt.


No, but it does get people more people involved who are checked out if a son or daughter is involved.


Exactly!!! Plus it gets ALL those sons and daughters involved!

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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by pp4me » Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:34 pm

Kriegsspiel is our resident expert on Pentagon thinking so maybe he can enlighten us on what they think about military conscription nowadays.

My guess is that after Vietnam they decided never again unless it becomes absolutely necessary.
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Re: The Afghan Papers

Post by Mark Leavy » Mon Aug 16, 2021 6:11 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:46 pm
I am vehemently against conscription. If circumstances absolutely require it (think Israel), the only acceptable way to do it is to require 100% of people to serve with virtually no exemptions.
Yep.

And in addition, I would like to require all politicians that vote for war to each provide 10 close family members to be held as security. And anytime a volunteer soldier is lost in combat, a randomly selected security hostage gets a bullet.
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